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为何我们的预测容易被现实打脸
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Topic: 为何我们的预测容易被现实打脸 (Read 103 times)
water8898
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为何我们的预测容易被现实打脸
April 01, 2018, 02:31:34 PM
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by
glacier_blue
(2)
#1
在多数金融市场中,人们更关心的是正确的预测,而不仅仅是赚钱。 无论是股票市场,科技趋势预测,房地产价值还是加密货币价格,从来不缺乏有人说我们的市场即将往哪里走,虽然也没有足够的证据一次又一次证明他们错了。 即使其中一些原因显而易见,如既得利益,但其他原因则不然。
业余投资者倾向于高估他们自己选择投资标的物的能力。 结果,他们不断反思自己的投资组合,不断的预测未来,他们一直承受着巨大的压力。
尽管无数的认知偏差在这里发挥作用,但以下九个方面的混合会导致大量的错误预测和他们的不良情绪。
1. 利益攸关
投资者很难客观地判断市场的最显而易见的原因是,无论他们投资什么,价格的上涨才是他们的最大利益。 Nassim Taleb的最新著作《 利益攸关 》将此定义为不仅是获益的诱因,而且也是对失败的一种抑制。
“如果你提出意见,并且有人跟随它,你在道义上有义务自己承担后果。 如果你提出观点,不要告诉我你的哪些“想法和理论”,只要告诉我你到底买了哪些币?
如果你拥有比特币,那么你会理所当然地选择散布任何可能暗示比特币价格上涨的消息。 如果你拥有各种各样的代币,这同样适用于有关整体市场的预测。预测者的判断是和他的既得利益捆绑在一起的。
glacier_blue
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Re: 为何我们的预测容易被现实打脸
April 01, 2018, 02:32:22 PM
#2
扎心了 老铁
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