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Author Topic: Handing your Happiness to Mr. Crypto Market  (Read 358 times)
krishnapramod
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April 02, 2018, 07:04:22 AM
Merited by avikz (1), Hydrogen (1), Ctn (1)
 #1

Prices falling – Signs of desperation – Emotional response – Reacting to predictions/Confirmation bias – Getting influenced by Mr. Crypto Market – Handing your happiness to Mr. Crypto Market.

Mr. Market, I guess most of us have heard about this hypothetical investor introduced by Benjamin Graham in his 1949 book "The Intelligent Investor". An investor who doesn't look at the big picture, fundamentals, long-term potential, but values the market according to his emotional responses, panic, euphoria and apathy. This is quite a common scenario in the nascent crypto market, prices going down, newbie investors getting deeply affected, emotions triggered, panic selling. The Mr. Market analogy is about a long term buy-and-hold strategy, crypto users preferred strategy, not saying it's the best, but obviously far better than emotionally reacting to market conditions.

1. If you're getting deeply affected by price then you're handing your happiness directly to the market, precisely linked to price.

2. You can decline Mr. Market's offer or ignore it, don’t have to check the price multiple times a day since he will soon come back with an entirely different offer.

3. You can stop caring about the price, and focus on the ideas behind crypto more.

Quote
He [Ben Graham] said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.

Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market’s quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.

Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn’t mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you.

But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence.

Anyone, or anything, bringing a present to the doorstep of your consciousness does not have to be accepted inside. They can be dealt with on the periphery, leaving the inner walls of your consciousness, and thereby happiness, untouched.

Not accepting a present at your experiential doorstep doesn’t mean you can bury your head in the sand, pretending that crypto isn’t now down 70% and you’re half as “rich” as you were at the start of the year.

But instead that you have a choice about how to handle and interpret this present that Mr. (Crypto) Market is bringing you. Maybe it even allows you to stop caring about the price, and focus on the ideas behind crypto more.
I’ve found the ideas in crypto are always up and to the right.

If instead the present trashes the inner walls of your consciousness, then you are handing your happiness directly to the market, one of the most mercurial beasts alive. And in my opinion, missing the more important points— our mission to decentralize data, wealth and power.

Remember too, you can ignore Mr. Market. As Buffett writes, “He doesn’t mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option...Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you.” There is nothing that compels you to check the market every day, or multiple times a day, or multiple times an hour.

In the coming years we’ll see a new all time high beyond what January 2018 represented. For me, this is not a matter of if, but of when.

But trying to predict when, or craving for when, is a recipe for suffering in crypto. So don’t get attached to the timing of the prediction, or the prediction at all :-) Meanwhile, do your best to sit in the roller coaster with equanimity.

A simple article on behavioral economics/psychology and guess a bit of spirituality as well, interesting read.

https://medium.com/@cburniske/handing-your-happiness-to-mr-crypto-market-d655da3927c2
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April 02, 2018, 09:15:02 AM
 #2

1. If you're getting deeply affected by price then you're handing your happiness directly to the market, precisely linked to price.

2. You can decline Mr. Market's offer or ignore it, don’t have to check the price multiple times a day since he will soon come back with an entirely different offer.

3. You can stop caring about the price, and focus on the ideas behind crypto more.
Totally agreed with this article since our happiness directly link everytime with the price, you become happy when the price rise and sad when it fall. However the solution offer was to biased, you can't just ignore the price or even telling people not to check the price multiple times a day because it serves nothing. My solution is to offer a purpose in a trading or any investment, get a plan A, plan B or even plan C. If something going out of your prediction then you can still have other solution for countermeasure rather than hoping god raise the price for you.  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

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April 02, 2018, 09:34:57 AM
 #3

1. If you're getting deeply affected by price then you're handing your happiness directly to the market, precisely linked to price.

2. You can decline Mr. Market's offer or ignore it, don’t have to check the price multiple times a day since he will soon come back with an entirely different offer.

3. You can stop caring about the price, and focus on the ideas behind crypto more.


Indeed the market is bitchy if we give ourself to it and in harsh words it can rip off the soul out of our life. If you have to stay on the top then you have to learn to say NO in the first place. If you are going to say yes, and if you want to say that when the situation is worst in the market then its like donating our wealth to other big investors for example, the whales.

Quote
2. You can decline Mr. Market's offer or ignore it, don’t have to check the price multiple times a day since he will soon come back with an entirely different offer.

Believe me that is the worst thing we can do to ourselves and kill the fun out of it by checking the prices again and again. It could drive our adrenaline crazy and we might end up in panic situation. So better to hold our bulls here.


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April 02, 2018, 09:47:08 AM
 #4

1. If you're getting deeply affected by price then you're handing your happiness directly to the market, precisely linked to price.

2. You can decline Mr. Market's offer or ignore it, don’t have to check the price multiple times a day since he will soon come back with an entirely different offer.

3. You can stop caring about the price, and focus on the ideas behind crypto more.
Totally agreed with this article since our happiness directly link everytime with the price, you become happy when the price rise and sad when it fall. However the solution offer was to biased, you can't just ignore the price or even telling people not to check the price multiple times a day because it serves nothing. My solution is to offer a purpose in a trading or any investment, get a plan A, plan B or even plan C. If something going out of your prediction then you can still have other solution for countermeasure rather than hoping god raise the price for you.  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
as easy as thay,actually we can just forget for maybe a month or if were not in need better for a year.because checking the price either growth or falls only provide us emotional stress and sometimes cause to panicking..this may the solution to leave things upon our future ,and putting plan A to D is what my fathers telling me since i was a small kid,that i must be ready for what will be the outcome of everything i do
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April 02, 2018, 10:02:36 AM
Merited by krishnapramod (1)
 #5

In psychology, there is so called S-R Theory wherein the we are responding in accordance to the stimuli. According to Ivan Pavlov, Stimulus Response Theory is a concept in psychology that refers to the belief that behavior manifests as a result of the interplay between stimulus and response. In particular, the belief is that a subject is presented with a stimulus, and then responds to that stimulus, producing "behavior" (the object of psychology's study, as a field). In other words, behavior cannot exist without a stimulus of some sort, at least from this perspective.
In other words, we react depends upon the stimulus. The behavior of a hodler is depends upon how the market goes. The status of the market becomes the stimulus and we response according to the series of events. If there is a crash then we are sad and afraid for our investment and if the market is in the bullish season probably, we are happy.

Reference:https://www.psychologistworld.com/behavior/stimulus-response-theory

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April 02, 2018, 11:23:00 AM
 #6

1. If you're getting deeply affected by price then you're handing your happiness directly to the market, precisely linked to price.

2. You can decline Mr. Market's offer or ignore it, don’t have to check the price multiple times a day since he will soon come back with an entirely different offer.

3. You can stop caring about the price, and focus on the ideas behind crypto more.
Totally agreed with this article since our happiness directly link everytime with the price, you become happy when the price rise and sad when it fall. However the solution offer was to biased, you can't just ignore the price or even telling people not to check the price multiple times a day because it serves nothing. My solution is to offer a purpose in a trading or any investment, get a plan A, plan B or even plan C. If something going out of your prediction then you can still have other solution for countermeasure rather than hoping god raise the price for you.  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

If you're into Bitcoin/crypto for the long-haul then you can simply ignore short-term price movements. Yeah, obviously if you're a trader/speculator then checking price every other minute does make sense. I guess psychologically, if an investor is obsessed with price movements then there could be a few reasons, but one of the major reasons is fear.

1. The investor is new to crypto market, isn’t prepared to handle volatility.

2. The investor has invested more than he can afford to lose.

Checking prices multiple times a day isn't an issue until it triggers an emotional reaction and one acts upon it and ends up doing something that wasn't part of the initial investment strategy.

God Huh
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April 03, 2018, 08:16:23 AM
Last edit: April 03, 2018, 10:21:50 AM by metenjean
 #7

1. If you're getting deeply affected by price then you're handing your happiness directly to the market, precisely linked to price.

2. You can decline Mr. Market's offer or ignore it, don’t have to check the price multiple times a day since he will soon come back with an entirely different offer.

3. You can stop caring about the price, and focus on the ideas behind crypto more.
Totally agreed with this article since our happiness directly link everytime with the price, you become happy when the price rise and sad when it fall. However the solution offer was to biased, you can't just ignore the price or even telling people not to check the price multiple times a day because it serves nothing. My solution is to offer a purpose in a trading or any investment, get a plan A, plan B or even plan C. If something going out of your prediction then you can still have other solution for countermeasure rather than hoping god raise the price for you.  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

If you're into Bitcoin/crypto for the long-haul then you can simply ignore short-term price movements. Yeah, obviously if you're a trader/speculator then checking price every other minute does make sense. I guess psychologically, if an investor is obsessed with price movements then there could be a few reasons, but one of the major reasons is fear.

1. The investor is new to crypto market, isn’t prepared to handle volatility.

2. The investor has invested more than he can afford to lose.

Checking prices multiple times a day isn't an issue until it triggers an emotional reaction and one acts upon it and ends up doing something that wasn't part of the initial investment strategy.

God Huh
Its true for a short term trader to check the price depend on what timeframe they are trading on, however there are lot of short term trader who changed their mind and plan when they got stuck in a certain position and force themselves to become a long term investor.  Grin Grin And in the end its just like we handing our happiness to the market or more likely to the fear that created by our own action  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

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April 03, 2018, 08:52:30 AM
Merited by krishnapramod (1)
 #8

It's very true for the people in the crypto market as well as in the real-world stock market as well. It is directly linked to our emotional energy. Crypto market is more prone to such energy because we don't have regulator here who will step in to the market when the prices are falling. Rather crypto market shows the raw reflection of emotional energy. That is the reason why, we have seen a lot of non-crypto guys invested in to bitcoin during late 2017 with a hope to achieve great returns. But now they are simply staying numb because they are already in a huge loss. The ideal scenario should have been the other way around. This complex human nature is what made us better than any other living creature on earth, if not best.

But this is how it is until we find a way to remove the inner-greed from our sub-conscious mind!

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April 03, 2018, 09:22:01 AM
Merited by krishnapramod (1), stompix (1)
 #9

Frankly speaking, i find both the reactions quite aggravating. The one which consists of constant fear and constant price checking or the other one where you get so numbed by the constant fluctuations that you reach a zen'd out buddha state of 'HODL'. Simply not giving up those bags at any cost...lol..

Both of these are emotional reactions. I believe in the long term impact and potential of bitcoin fully but in the meantime, when there is no regulation, the most benefit will accrue to two groups of pretty un-emotional people:

1. The shrewd, dishonest ones who find it acceptable to manipulate people's emotions and scam them using tall promises vaporware.
2. The cold, calm trader with no emotional investment in the technology and idea but the sole intent of profit.

Till the market becomes better protected from such manipulations, believers like us can only hold and wait for the change to come.. Roll Eyes

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April 04, 2018, 05:06:38 AM
 #10

It is natural to be emotional about the price movement in the market and so the statement, "handling your happiness to Mr Crypto Market" is largely true. Many people are definitely sad now that the price is low and they have brought at a high price already before this bearish run we are seeing. There are some that will be happy who knows that they can take advantage of this dip to buy and buy more knowing fully well that it is only a matter of time the bullish market will come again. One antidote of not allowing oneself to be controlled by this movement in prices is to only invest money you can afford to loose and not to be greedy.

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April 04, 2018, 05:34:46 AM
 #11

While you are right, people aren't going to change their entire human nature just to be able to trade. People can't control it, their emotions are going to get the best of them because they're losing money -- it's like if you lose money gambling, or on the lotto, and so on and so forth.

Can't change this, you can only educate people on how to work within their emotions.




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April 04, 2018, 10:53:16 AM
Merited by krishnapramod (1)
 #12

You know that if emotions are getting in the way of your decision making, then you're not making the right decision.

I'm specifically referring to long term holders here. Traders are a completely different story since they capitalize on short term price movements. But holders are in it for the long term. Checking the price is no issue, as OP said. But if it starts bothering you as soon as bitcoin drops by one percentage point, then you definitely have got a problem.

Sometimes you're focusing on peanuts, only when you zoom out, you'll see the big picture.

Like in this crash, I see a lot of people panic dumping who will most likely buy back at a higher level when the bull market starts happening. Unless you are accumulating at such low prices, hold your coin. Same goes with in a bull market, don't buy just because your emotions tell you to. Sell when you've made a decent profit.

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April 04, 2018, 11:24:59 AM
 #13

I am only expectant of something positive from Mr Crypto market. I haven't really invested my cash so as not to get unnecessarily worried or unhappy. For now, I don't keep my hope so high so as not to get it dashed on the ground. I do however, expect an improvement from the second part of this year.

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April 05, 2018, 08:12:52 AM
Merited by krishnapramod (1)
 #14

It's very true for the people in the crypto market as well as in the real-world stock market as well. It is directly linked to our emotional energy. Crypto market is more prone to such energy because we don't have regulator here who will step in to the market when the prices are falling. Rather crypto market shows the raw reflection of emotional energy. That is the reason why, we have seen a lot of non-crypto guys invested in to bitcoin during late 2017 with a hope to achieve great returns. But now they are simply staying numb because they are already in a huge loss. The ideal scenario should have been the other way around. This complex human nature is what made us better than any other living creature on earth, if not best.

But this is how it is until we find a way to remove the inner-greed from our sub-conscious mind!
Before investing, one should even always have a strategy as an investor, but it is just the way things are as so many people did not invest because they understand the value of their holding, but because they heard some holders back when it all began have gotten strikingly rich and they also do not want to miss out.

One thing they have forgotten is that those who invested earlier understood what they invested in and through thick and thin, they still believed in the long term of it which is what makes them different from those who are suffering from FOMOlysis.


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April 05, 2018, 04:15:02 PM
Merited by krishnapramod (1)
 #15

1. If you're getting deeply affected by price then you're handing your happiness directly to the market, precisely linked to price.

2. You can decline Mr. Market's offer or ignore it, don’t have to check the price multiple times a day since he will soon come back with an entirely different offer.

3. You can stop caring about the price, and focus on the ideas behind crypto more.
Totally agreed with this article since our happiness directly link everytime with the price, you become happy when the price rise and sad when it fall. However the solution offer was to biased, you can't just ignore the price or even telling people not to check the price multiple times a day because it serves nothing. My solution is to offer a purpose in a trading or any investment, get a plan A, plan B or even plan C. If something going out of your prediction then you can still have other solution for countermeasure rather than hoping god raise the price for you.  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
Yeah, and a really interesting one. Those who always fail to plan, usually end up failing. It is the general theme of life, and part of planning is studying and understanding the area of your investment which a lot of newbie investors always fail to do. If you cannot even ignore the price and you feel you can benefit from it, then learn how to trade and follow trend to at least take advantage of the fluctuations, but for an investor, complaining about everything should be the last thing.

It is really amusing when I see people panic for no reason because of a downtrend in the market. I always believe one thing; if you cannot live with it, then do not even join in the first place. One thing for sure is that a market will never stay on a single trend forever, and depending on where you invested, you just have to wait for your time to get the best of it, and understand all that is needed even before investing.

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April 05, 2018, 05:00:57 PM
 #16

You know that if emotions are getting in the way of your decision making, then you're not making the right decision.

I'm specifically referring to long term holders here. Traders are a completely different story since they capitalize on short term price movements. But holders are in it for the long term. Checking the price is no issue, as OP said. But if it starts bothering you as soon as bitcoin drops by one percentage point, then you definitely have got a problem.

Sometimes you're focusing on peanuts, only when you zoom out, you'll see the big picture.

Like in this crash, I see a lot of people panic dumping who will most likely buy back at a higher level when the bull market starts happening. Unless you are accumulating at such low prices, hold your coin. Same goes with in a bull market, don't buy just because your emotions tell you to. Sell when you've made a decent profit.
This is most likely what happening now,selling all the coins before it gets lower price than today.If we cannot overcome the fear in us,being emotionally stressed particularly in this dump days,then we will not be successful in making good profits in this crypto market.We should learn to be patient at least and sell our coins when we see the price has already recovered.

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April 05, 2018, 05:33:25 PM
 #17

Hmm! Very nice article to read and I hope some of the new and inexperienced investors are reading this now. I guess the problem most of them have today is just ignorance, since all they do is to want to get rich quick, without analyzing and understanding what they are getting into, then they tend to get emotional easily to everything.

There is a huge potential in every market but everything cannot always be rosy and being able to understand all these without letting it affect you emotionally in the decisions you make is all that is important as an investor.

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April 05, 2018, 06:34:25 PM
Merited by krishnapramod (1)
 #18

A nice way to look at it and also the better way on looking at how you handle things. Mr. Market often comes with a shocker that you don't like, which may trigger you to have some decisions based solely on your emotions without thinking straight. In this way, you are becoming anxious as to what would Mr. Market would offer the next day whether you lose or not. This also goes when you're shopping at the mall with store attendants trying to make an offer about what you 'might' like. I learned that seeing what their offer is and ignoring afterwards give me the best deal I can get for a single item that I wanted, and in a cryptotrader's case, this also works best too, if people actually have the patience to do so.




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April 05, 2018, 06:40:06 PM
 #19

The current happening and the bullish market is actually very hard to be happy and remain optimistic that bitcoin and other crypto currencies are going to recover. It take the mind of a wise investor for one to remain relevant. Bitcoin has done well in the past and now give us another opportunity for us to buy more for the good days ahead.
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April 05, 2018, 11:15:38 PM
Merited by krishnapramod (1)
 #20

Its easy to become attached to the concept of bitcoin being a bouncing ball that will *bounce* back like a ball making contact with pavement everytime the price falls by a significant margin. Bitcoin has by far won more than it has lost over the last 18 months. Its easy to perceive that inertia as representing the largest slice of momentum and to assume btc will *bounce back* as it has in the past whenever we worried over price declines.

I think by now most of us have searched for methods of diversification. Plan B in case our crypto plan A fails. There are many avenues for crypto diversification. Purchasing gold, silver, precious metals, jewels, diamonds. In more desperate cases: purchasing electronic goods like big screen TVs, gaming consoles and other devices which are more easily accessible and expected to retain good value over the short term. Real estate and vehicles like cars or trucks with decent bluebook resell values might be utilized. Then there are options which might carry the utility of being able to start a business. Purchasing lawn mowers to start a lawn moving business, seeds to grow crops which might be sold at farmer's market, maybe a guitar or musical instrument to produce music clips on youtube in an effort to earn income. People may only be limited by their imaginations here.

Hopefully, bitcoin will bounce back rather than experience a *dead cat* bounce where the price doesn't make any comeback at all. I think we should have a good indication of which it'll be by the end of 2018 with bitcoin usually experiencing a seasonal peak at year's end.

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