Bitcoin's market value should fall by more than a third before year-end

[bbc.reporter]

I know many of us in the community are clearly still in a state of denial about the realness of this bear market. Why do I say this? It's because I still see many people that scoff the researchers and analysts by saying things like they do not know bitcoin, technical analysis does not work in bitcoin or the most classic that's FUD.

It is time to open your eyes. They are right and we are wrong.



The growth of new active bitcoin users is slowing, which by "Metcalfe's law" indicates that the cryptocurrency's market capitalization will not grow as quickly as it has, some Swiss researchers said.

Metcalfe's law says the value of a network is proportional to the square of its users. By a generalization of that principle, bitcoin's market value by the end of the year should be no more than $77 billion, Spencer Wheatley and Didier Sornette, both professors of entrepreneurial risks at ETH Zurich, said in a paper dated March 16.

That's $41 billion, or nearly 35 percent, less than bitcoin's market capitalization Monday of $118 billion.

The researchers found four distinct bitcoin bubbles that correspond to that model. Triggers for the bubbles ranged from a 2011 hack at the now-defunct Mt. Gox bitcoin exchange to South Korean regulators' threat to shut down cryptocurrency exchanges in December 2017, the paper said. Those events "were followed by crashes or strong corrections."

Read in full https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/02/bitcoins-market-value-should-fall-by-more-than-a-third-before-year-end-swiss-researchers-say.html

Research paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.05663.pdf

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[fabiorem]

The "mean" in this chart is the $3000 price which happened on 1st August 2017.

In relation to previous ATH, we already fallen more than a third. $6k is 30% of $20k, so we have fallen two thirds already.

But if you say that in relation to $6k, this would give us a $4k price. I think it will go lower than that. It will go where people will drop it out of despair. In that chart, the "despair" phase is around $800.

The analysts are still wrong. Why? Because this crash is engineered by Wall Street, as simple as that.

[magneto]

I agree, I think hat we will probably fall more before the year's end.

Right now we are most likely in a bull trap. I don't personally have much hope in bitcoin going up in the short term. I think we'll probably see something like a bitcoin recovery only in a few years time instead of this year.

77 billion market cap is a reasonable estimate and would result in a $4.5k pricing.

Based on the 2013 crash which fell to around 15% of peak value, I think that we'll see something similar with BTC bottoming at $3-4k before making a recovery back up again during the next few years.

[bbc.reporter]

The "mean" in this chart is the $3000 price which happened on 1st August 2017.

In relation to previous ATH, we already fallen more than a third. $6k is 30% of $20k, so we have fallen two thirds already.

But if you say that in relation to $6k, this would give us a $4k price. I think it will go lower than that. It will go where people will drop it out of despair. In that chart, the "despair" phase is around $800.

The analysts are still wrong. Why? Because this crash is engineered by Wall Street, as simple as that.

I know that no expert can be exact in their predictions, but roughly, I agree that they are right on their medium term prediction for the rest of 2018.

Also, if the crash was engineered by Wall Street, then the pump might also be engineered by them. That's something many of us here can also be in denial of.

[fabiorem]

Also, if the crash was engineered by Wall Street, then the pump might also be engineered by them. That's something many of us here can also be in denial of.

But it was. The pumps from November and December were artificial. They were too much steep. They started pumping it right after CME futures got announced in October, and dumped it when the first CME session opened in December.

Now I think they will fail, because the more they dump it, the wider is the distribution. People are just filling the gap with buying orders. Bitcoin was in 6k two times already, the resistance seems very strong there. And the Mt.Gox trustee wallet had not moved anymore, so they cant use that to spread FUD.

[Crytptohack]

If the Feb 6th low is not taken out to the downside, that will be the low price for 2018. If that is true, BTC will not have a 1/3 decline from now.

The last few weeks, BTC has sold off but has NOT taken out the Feb 6th low. it came close, but did not print a price lower.

[figmentofmyass]

you guys realize that the bubble chart only works in linear mode, right? turn on log, and you'll see that the prospects are a lot less scary. and even on linear, it doesn't work on bitcoin. the closest we ever came was in 2011, but price never reverted below the previous cycle's "bear trap."

anyway, i'm glad that i'm seeing more and more of these posts. at least now it seems like sentiment is no longer bullish and hopeful. rather, people have turned significantly more bearish. maybe it's getting to be time we squeezed shorts.

[bbc.reporter]

@figmentofmyass. Ok, so you are a permabull hehehe. But can you tell us how low bitcoin should go that would cause you to change your sentiment?

Also, changing from the linear scale to a log scale is nothing more than a clever trick to make it look less bad hehehe. It feeds our denial.

[pooya87]

I know many of us in the community are clearly still in a state of denial about the realness of this bear market.

i don't think there is anybody left who doesn't KNOW this is a bear market. but still that doesn't mean price will fall down to all these ridiculously low price predictions that is becoming too common these days (not necessarily this one but generally speaking).

Why do I say this? It's because I still see many people that scoff the researchers and analysts by saying things like they do not know bitcoin,

The growth of new active bitcoin users is slowing, which by "Metcalfe's law" indicates that the cryptocurrency's market capitalization will not grow as quickly as it has, some Swiss researchers said.

That's $41 billion, or nearly 35 percent, less than bitcoin's market capitalization Monday of $118 billion.

usage of market capitalization in these statements of them prove that they don't know cryptocurrencies and how market cap works for them.
it says "cryptocurrency's market capitalizationwill not grow as quickly as it has", i say he doesn't know what he is talking about. i can start up a shitcoin creating machine and pump the "market cap" up within a week. it just needs coinmarketcap.com to list them on their website otherwise making a new token with 100 billion coins and with the value of less than a dollar increases the total MC in a blinking of an eye!

[bbc.reporter]

@pooya87. The analyst does not know what he is talking about because you think you can make a scamcoin and manipulate the price to a market cap level that you want?

That isn't the same as bitcoin's market cap isn't it? It will take more to make bitcoin grow as quickly as it did last year, I reckon, because the volume and market is very much bigger than that of a random scamcoin.

The analyst was also talking about the general feeling of this bearish market which might also make it hard for bitcoin's growth this year.