calm down everyone

[franky1]

the vulnerability threat of bitcoin is a false bit of propoganda. its old news and when actually put into practice, the vulnerability does not break bitcoin or cause issues.

and as for the volitility of prices today. again calm down.

every month since april there has been one day during the first week of each month where someone causes some volitily by selling their coins. i think it is someone selling their coins to pay wages, restock their store and pay their bills.

the only ones i can think of that have enough bitcoin projects running and staff and stock paid initially in bitcoins are the 3 main guys of bitnstant that also own bitcoinstore and other projects..

so this is their 'pay day'

nothing more.. calm down, bitcoin is not broken

[vesperwillow]

BTC looks like it's dropped almost $20 in the past hour. If I had to guess it's related to a lot of folks seeing slowdowns in the chain out of nowhere, and some blocks seemingly disappearing.

I don't believe there's an issue, but I'm betting it's got some on edge.

[franky1]

BTC looks like it's dropped almost $20 in the past hour. If I had to guess it's related to a lot of folks seeing slowdowns in the chain out of nowhere, and some blocks seemingly disappearing.

I don't believe there's an issue, but I'm betting it's got some on edge.

it only takes 150BTC $30k to drop the price by $10 which i can see happening every month since april. but then everyone else see's this $10 drop and suddenly it turns into a $20,$20,$40, $50 drop based on panic.

if everyone realised that a $10 drop was expected to happen during the first week of each month, there would be no panic and no need for such a massive upto $50 drop for no reason.

[RealT]

BTC looks like it's dropped almost $20 in the past hour. If I had to guess it's related to a lot of folks seeing slowdowns in the chain out of nowhere, and some blocks seemingly disappearing.

I don't believe there's an issue, but I'm betting it's got some on edge.

it only takes 150BTC $30k to drop the price by $10 which i can see happening every month since april. but then everyone else see's this $10 drop and suddenly it turns into a $20,$20,$40, $50 drop based on panic.

if everyone realised that a $10 drop was expected to happen during the first week of each month, there would be no panic and no need for such a massive upto $50 drop for no reason.

A 30k sale drops the price by $10?  That's scary.  Just curious, how do you arrive at this number?

[StarfishPrime]

BTC looks like it's dropped almost $20 in the past hour. If I had to guess it's related to a lot of folks seeing slowdowns in the chain out of nowhere, and some blocks seemingly disappearing.

I don't believe there's an issue, but I'm betting it's got some on edge.

it only takes 150BTC $30k to drop the price by $10 which i can see happening every month since april. but then everyone else see's this $10 drop and suddenly it turns into a $20,$20,$40, $50 drop based on panic.

if everyone realised that a $10 drop was expected to happen during the first week of each month, there would be no panic and no need for such a massive upto $50 drop for no reason.

Just look at it as an excellent buying opportunity, much more predictable than wall street.

A few well placed trades, just during the past few hours would have netted 10%+ on MtGox.

[franky1]

A 30k sale drops the price by $10?  That's scary.  Just curious, how do you arrive at this number?

by looking at the charts

unlike spring 2012 where MTGOX had hundreds of thousands of coins at play, now they only have 20k worth of BTC stretching between $250 -> $99,999,999,950 order lines

there are times in the day when trading is slow that you can see 120BTC can by up enough orders to cause a $10 drop.. and then suddenly as activity picks up it takes 120BTC to cause a $2 price variance.

along with walls it only takes 120BTC to cause a wall on MTGOX on a slow day.

i have seen this happen a few times now. where just a single order creates a long red candle. then suddenly activity picks up and then follows other people selling upto 500BTC-1000BTC. its just panic for no reason.

just check historic trends date of lowest price of the month
16-Apr $50
03-May $79
09-Jun $88
05-Jul $65
08-Aug $100
06-Sep $121
02-Oct $109

every month, the first week has had the most lowest price of the month. and it has alway started with a single red candle of about $30k worth of coins. which is not much. thats like 20 employee's monthly minimum wage salary or bitcoin-store restocking 60 standard TV's or laptops for the month.

ever since gox having the least easiest way for people to deposit USD, gox volume has shrunk. i just find it soo amusing and frustrating that everyone still uses gox as the main guide of price and follows a sudden $10 drop on gox, as a sheepish reason to then try dropping by $10 on the other exchanges. purely due to panic and misunderstandings.

thats why i thought it was needed to be posted that this whole panic thing every first week of the month is not needed.

[kik1977]

Very nice analysis Franky, thanks for sharing 

[countryfree]

 i just find it soo amusing and frustrating that everyone still uses gox as the main guide of price and follows a sudden $10 drop on gox, as a sheepish reason to then try dropping by $10 on the other exchanges.

I've never used Gox, and my last time on their website was more than 6 months ago. I'm not so sure there are still many people looking at it.

[balanghai]

Yeah, I think the propaganda is made by Paypal, Western Union and other payment processors dying because of bitcoin.

[Interized]

Yeah, I think the propaganda is made by Paypal, Western Union and other payment processors dying because of bitcoin.

They are no where near close to dying.

[TERA]

My theory is someone specifically tries to crash gox so they can accumulate cheap coins on other exchanges. Then they buy back their coins on gox from the bots they sold to for little to no loss, or a profit even.

[lnternet]

I should start speculating. I don't believe it's that unpredictable with only a few news sites and few exchanges with open order books.

[HarHarHar9965]

I should start speculating. I don't believe it's that unpredictable with only a few news sites and few exchanges with open order books.

the vast majority of traders lose, but sure, go ahead and give it a try. 

[CMMPro]

Any time you think the world is ending zoom out to the >1 day charts, smile and take a deep breath.
(In the <15 minute charts every movement looks like the world is ending.)

Once in a while take a big step back...things are going well for us.

[CMMPro]

I should start speculating. I don't believe it's that unpredictable with only a few news sites and few exchanges with open order books.

If you are going to take a shot at that learning curve please take it easy and realize you don't have to be "all in" or "all out" in order to learn and profit.
(Play with 10% of your XBT maximum.)

You will make mistakes...you will learn from them....every time I lost I learned valuable lessons....consider the inevitable losses you will incur to be the cost of that education.

[antimattercrusader]

Yeah, I think the propaganda is made by Paypal, Western Union and other payment processors dying because of bitcoin.

They are no where near close to dying.

In Paypal's case, sadly.