100,000 LN Nodes, $100,000 BTC price: 2021 prediction

[cellard]

Turns out my estimations of the Lightning Network's growth were underrated, I was using an outdated explorer that was listing less nodes, use this explorer for the updated amount of nodes:

https://rompert.com/recksplorer/

This is the old url:

https://lnmainnet.gaben.win/

Notice how there's 300 new LN nodes in the other url that the old url is not caching.

LN seems to be growing pretty fast, it will eventually go parabolic once it's easier to run. Right now (I think) you need a full Bitcoin node to run a node, but eventually they will make it so anyone can run an LN node without running a full Bitcoin node.

By 2021 I predict big companies like Steam, eBay or even Amazon starting to accept Bitcoin payments through a much more robust and user friendly LN. Coupled with the store of value properties which will remain as solid as always, the combination will make the price go beyond $100,000.

[B1tUnl0ck3r]

one tx censored and banned and it's over for this "system"... and bcash will be king. don't fuck it.

[cellard]

one tx censored and banned and it's over for this "system"... and bcash will be king. don't fuck it.

Not really, even if LN fails, the fundamentals of BCash are already broken at layer 0, Bitcoin would remain the #1 store of value. If people are stupid enough to go all in on BCash, it will be a matter of time in which BCash gets attacked. The only reason the network hasn't been attacked is because nobody cares.

Let's just wait and see, Craig Wrigh announced many things recently, let's see how it goes in practice, it's easy to promise things until they are in the wild and being attacked.

Also LN is still in the early stages, it wouldn't be the end of the world if it happens now, there's not even $1million worth of money in the network.

[myhoho]

Lightning Network + Halving than we will see above 50k very easy.
until Lightning Network i dont see any chance to go over 15k

[kevoh]

 Not really, even if LN fails, the fundamentals of BCash are already broken at layer 0, Bitcoin would remain the #1 store of value. If people are stupid enough to go all in on BCash, it will be a matter of time in which BCash gets attacked. The only reason the network hasn't been attacked is because nobody cares.

Exactly! Nobody cares. Even when the Bitcoin mempool got clogged Litecoin was a more preferable alternative for people than Bitcoin cash.

[Slark]

By 2021 I predict big companies like Steam, eBay or even Amazon starting to accept Bitcoin payments through a much more robust and user friendly LN. Coupled with the store of value properties which will remain as solid as always, the combination will make the price go beyond $100,000.

I wish you are right - but that scenario is overly optimistic. Steam used to accept Bitcoin and that option has been removed some time ago.
There is no telling if Gabe will be eager to accept Bitcoin again anytime soon, if ever.
LN on paper seems amazing concept - but we could say the same about SegWit and we all know what happened and how difficult it was to introduce it.

[exstasie]

By 2021 I predict big companies like Steam, eBay or even Amazon starting to accept Bitcoin payments through a much more robust and user friendly LN. Coupled with the store of value properties which will remain as solid as always, the combination will make the price go beyond $100,000.

Hard to time it, but three years is definitely possible. The supply is so limited and blow-off tops are so unpredictable that tagging $100,000 was possible this year (though clearly won't happen now). But that's the thing about hype cycles. Fundamentals aren't very important during strong trending markets.

Anyway, I think Bitcoin's headed there regardless of Lightning.

I wish you are right - but that scenario is overly optimistic. Steam used to accept Bitcoin and that option has been removed some time ago.
There is no telling if Gabe will be eager to accept Bitcoin again anytime soon, if ever.

Caring about merchant adoption? What is this, 2014?! If people are adopting BTC as a store-of-value (rather than a micropayment rail) then we don't need Steam et al.

[BitHodler]

LN is the main focus right now, but in the coming years we'll be seeing more off-chain layers contributing to more usability, so I see it just as the first initial step towards more bullish developments we'll be experiencing.

I do agree that LN is a major potential price driver, but it will be mainly in speculative terms, which as we have seen throughout the years, hasn't exactly been a reliable and sustainable form of increase.

I rather see the price go up steadily than focusing on certain events feeding more speculation and dumps afterwards because people expect far too much to happen, which basically happened with SegWit as well.

[pitiflin]

Lightning network is not much of a deal from a trader's perspective, don't ya think? I'd be lying if I say I know alot about lightning network but from what I know, it is yet to be launched fully in implementation. And 100k is too much of a random speculation, unless there are more facts that make it so. Like any sort of survey or article? I'd be surprised if we even hit 50k because you know how crazy stupid things people are up to.

[Herbert2020]

just like bitcoin adoption, LN adoption is going to be like an S curve. as new clients are released and as they become more user friendly with their bugs fixed, more nodes will start running and more channels will be created. i think this year we will see a big rise to begin with and hopefully by next year (2019) we see at least one major usage for it like on some exchange platform.
and hopefully more decentralized exchanges with Atomic Swaps.

it will be a matter of time in which BCash gets attacked. The only reason the network hasn't been attacked is because nobody cares.

the correct statement is "nobody cared enough to keep on attacking bitcoin cash". it happened already. i think it was 2 months ago that there was a successful spam attack against bitcoin cash which lasted about 2 days. it filled all the blocks to 8 MB and created a big backlog and increased the fees with success. but you know it is hard to spam attack when blocks are only 100 kB (1% full)!!!

[nc50lc]

What's the connection between the future exponential number of lightning nodes and Bitcoin's price?
Less transaction cost through a haywire network is only going to help BTC to reach the mainstream, that wont guarantee a higher trading price.

Check out the site, there's a lot of channels (I remember, earlier this year there are only 3-huge hubs in the center and some smaller ones around them, now the site can't be rendered without lagging an ancient rig),
I wonder what will happen to the whole network once LN become the standard of micro-payment of almost all internet things and online stores.

[Wind_FURY]

OP, I assume you run a node too? How easy is it to run a Lightning node? It also needs you to run bitcoind, correct?

I believe a hub and spoke model for the Lightning Network would be a better set up in the beginning if the real intention was to "scale" Bitcoin. I don't mind it to be semi-centralized to be quite honest.

[Pursuer]

OP, I assume you run a node too? How easy is it to run a Lightning node? It also needs you to run bitcoind, correct?

I believe a hub and spoke model for the Lightning Network would be a better set up in the beginning if the real intention was to "scale" Bitcoin. I don't mind it to be semi-centralized to be quite honest.

there will always be people who are going to run a node whether it is a bitcoin full node or a lightning node on top of it and other people who are going to use lightweight clients that use their full nodes.
just like now that there are a lot of users using Electrum than there are users running an Electrum Node.
I don't think we can call this centralization.

[B1tUnl0ck3r]

frankly compared to elastic block of pivx (and zpiv and zpiv staking) it's a little bit too late .

[buwaytress]

Somehow I don't think you were the only one underestimating this growth. With SegWit taking the time it did, I'm actually really surprised at how quickly LN's picking up. This is what you call flying under the radar...

one tx censored and banned and it's over for this "system"... and bcash will be king. don't fuck it.

Not really, even if LN fails, the fundamentals of BCash are already broken at layer 0, Bitcoin would remain the #1 store of value. If people are stupid enough to go all in on BCash, it will be a matter of time in which BCash gets attacked. The only reason the network hasn't been attacked is because nobody cares.

Let's just wait and see, Craig Wrigh announced many things recently, let's see how it goes in practice, it's easy to promise things until they are in the wild and being attacked.

Also LN is still in the early stages, it wouldn't be the end of the world if it happens now, there's not even $1million worth of money in the network.

Precisely. I'm not much for lol'ing and I'm ready to admit I'd hedge my bets any day with anything that has a semblance of financial might (which, BCash at least seems to have) but can't help cracking a lip smiling every update I see from them. Same goes for any alt showing off their "problem-free" environments. Problems are good, as it means you actually have users to cause those problems.

[Lucius]

Turns out my estimations of the Lightning Network's growth were underrated, I was using an outdated explorer that was listing less nodes, use this explorer for the updated amount of nodes:

https://rompert.com/recksplorer/

This is the old url:

https://lnmainnet.gaben.win/

Notice how there's 300 new LN nodes in the other url that the old url is not caching.

LN seems to be growing pretty fast, it will eventually go parabolic once it's easier to run. Right now (I think) you need a full Bitcoin node to run a node, but eventually they will make it so anyone can run an LN node without running a full Bitcoin node.

By 2021 I predict big companies like Steam, eBay or even Amazon starting to accept Bitcoin payments through a much more robust and user friendly LN. Coupled with the store of value properties which will remain as solid as always, the combination will make the price go beyond $100,000.

I would not mind that your predictions come true,100k $ for 1 BTC would be a really nice price,but how long this price could be maintained since most would choose to sell everything they have at this price and I believe a lot before.So up to 100k $ and then correction to 30-40k$ maybe?

In some of your previous posts your views were something different regarding BTC price increase,that's why I am a little surprised now that you think LN may have some impact on the price.

What most people don't get is that we don't even need mass adoption to get the price up x10, we just need the individuals with high net worth to diversify their portfolios into Bitcoin.

Most money in the world is controlled by few individuals.. so why the hell people want "mass adoption"? average joes putting their small savings into Bitcoin will do nothing, we need the big pockets to diversify their stupid stocks and bonds into Bitcoin and eventually this will happen, but people are too focused on how we need to pay coffee with Bitcoin to "go to the moon" which is nonsense.

I think that main force which can make BTC more valuable than today is mass adoption,but not valuable in a way of pump and then dump to 30-40% of the previous value.If BTC become something most used by ordinary people and not only few individuals who manipulate the market and the price and make profits in that.

Of course store of value is something which should not be ignored,and will definitely play a big role when it comes to the price-some people will never consider BTC as currency but only as a possible valuable asset.

[cellard]

By 2021 I predict big companies like Steam, eBay or even Amazon starting to accept Bitcoin payments through a much more robust and user friendly LN. Coupled with the store of value properties which will remain as solid as always, the combination will make the price go beyond $100,000.

Hard to time it, but three years is definitely possible. The supply is so limited and blow-off tops are so unpredictable that tagging $100,000 was possible this year (though clearly won't happen now). But that's the thing about hype cycles. Fundamentals aren't very important during strong trending markets.

Anyway, I think Bitcoin's headed there regardless of Lightning.

I wish you are right - but that scenario is overly optimistic. Steam used to accept Bitcoin and that option has been removed some time ago.
There is no telling if Gabe will be eager to accept Bitcoin again anytime soon, if ever.

Caring about merchant adoption? What is this, 2014?! If people are adopting BTC as a store-of-value (rather than a micropayment rail) then we don't need Steam et al.

I believe the #1 priority for Bitcoin is and must be store of value properties, and we already got these, anyone that wanted could diversify their portfolios and hold Bitcoin.

The Winklevoss brothers for instance are pioneers at this, and more will follow, driving the price up. These people tend to be long term holders, so once they buy, these coins will be out of the market, driving the price up permanently.

As to "we don't need LN to go to the moon". We don't, if we get the big whales to diversify within Bitcoin, and I believe it eventually will happen, like I said, other whales will follow Winkevoss footsteps, but it is also a good thing to have a payments solutions on top of Bitcoin, if the demand comes, you must be ready, mostly to avoid all that bad press about insane fees and bad transaction times. Im just not so sure about Bitcoin being a viable store of value if we get permanent bad press about how the fees and the transactions are a mess for these wanting to transact. For us holders that us irrelevant, but you don't want that constant FUD on the mainstream media, so if LN solves that, it's better than nothing. Just imagine that Gabe decides to accept Bitcoin again... if Bitcoin doesn't have a proper way to deal with more transactions, they would probably pick BCash, and we don't really want that don't we?

[rehydrogenated]

I think the stated reasons for most companies stopping their acceptance of bitcoin was due to its high volatility. Although the lightning network is a great innovation, I don't think it will see its full potential until you are able to pay with bitcoin that is instantly converted into dollars or whatever the local currency. I think this will be difficult from both a tax standpoint and a fees standpoint. Most companies really do not want to speculate on the price of bitcoin, and they shouldn't have to. Maybe if there was a way to instantly hedge until the bitcoin could be successfully sold. An anti-bitcoin if you will.

[cellard]

I think the stated reasons for most companies stopping their acceptance of bitcoin was due to its high volatility. Although the lightning network is a great innovation, I don't think it will see its full potential until you are able to pay with bitcoin that is instantly converted into dollars or whatever the local currency. I think this will be difficult from both a tax standpoint and a fees standpoint. Most companies really do not want to speculate on the price of bitcoin, and they shouldn't have to. Maybe if there was a way to instantly hedge until the bitcoin could be successfully sold. An anti-bitcoin if you will.

Companies that don't want to deal with the volatility of Bitcoin could either insta sell for fiat or just wait for Bitcoin to be a store of value worth trillions, so once we have a marketcap that's worth similarly to gold, the volatility will be low enough, but Bitcoin will never have a stable price against fiat, that's just impossible.

I don't see how LN wouldn't allow merchants to insta sell for fiat if they dumb enough enough to not see how it's a good idea to have a steady source of Bitcoin income that you can use to accumulate. I mean what does Gabe or whoever else have to lose? they would be getting fiat and Bitcoin at the same time, can't go wrong with that strategy.

But yeah, ultimately BTC is a gold substitute. If someday somehow it becomes the de-facto global currency, then merchants will not have to have this mentality of constantly having to think how much it is in fiat, it will be 1BTC=1BTC, so no more volatility problems. How do we get there and when, I have no idea.

[exstasie]

Im just not so sure about Bitcoin being a viable store of value if we get permanent bad press about how the fees and the transactions are a mess for these wanting to transact. For us holders that us irrelevant, but you don't want that constant FUD on the mainstream media, so if LN solves that, it's better than nothing.

If it's not FUD about fees, it'll be FUD about something else. I'm not too worried. Bitcoin's phenomenal rally last year actually coincided with significantly rising fees. So I'm not convinced fees (or perception of fees) is a major barrier to price. In a bull market, FUD doesn't phase the market at all. As long as the fundamentals around Bitcoin's value storage properties remain intact, I think the long term trend will continue.

I also don't think LN will "solve" the problem per se. It's just one avenue to offload some transaction volume, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin operates best as a settlement layer. I quite like what @evoskuil said about that here:

As I pointed out in Utility Threshold Property, rising price excludes lower value transaction scenarios and improves use for larger value transactions. This is however not the same idea as, "undercutting the currency use case."

Bitcoin is perfectly non-scalable in terms of tx volume, and will remain so. No increase in hardware can increase tx volume. However it is perfectly scalable in value throughput. This makes it ideal as a settlement layer.

This is neither the same as a reserve currency, nor as a store of value. Bitcoin cannot exist primarily as either. It must be transacted by individuals to exist. Layering produces a non-reserve currency that requires individual participation in validation.