Too late to buy?

[Wary]

In April it started from 13.4$, went to 266$ (base x 19.8 ) then dived to 55$ (base x 4.1).
Now it started at 140$ (you can see it clearly at year's chart with 1-week bars).

How deep will be the dive this time?

Can we expect that the proportions of peak/dive will be the same as in April, in log scale?
That is if peak will be, say, half of April's, (i.e. base x 9.9), then the dive will be half of April's too (i.e. base x 2.05).

Then, if we'll have peak at $600 (x 4.3 from the base 140), the dive will be to 280$.
(I'ts  140$ * (exp(ln(4.1) * (ln(4.3)/ln(19.8 )))))
For the peak of 1000$ the dive is 350$   (140$ * (exp(ln(4.1) * (ln(7)/ln(19.8 ))))).
For the peak of 1600$ the dive is 440$   (140$ * (exp(ln(4.1) * (ln(11.4)/ln(19.8 ))))))

So, if you:
-have some fiat
-expect the proportionality
-expect the peak at $600

Then, instead of buying for 310$ now, you should bid for somewhere above 280$ and just wait.

[BitchicksHusband]

In April it started from 13.4$, went to 266$ (base x 19.8 ) then dived to 55$ (base x 4.1).
Now it started at 140$ (you can see it clearly at year's chart with 1-week bars).

How deep will be the dive this time?

Can we expect that the proportions of peak/dive will be the same as in April, in log scale?
That is if peak will be, say, half of April's, (i.e. base x 9.9), then the dive will be half of April's too (i.e. base x 2.05).

Then, if we'll have peak at $600 (x 4.3 from the base 140), the dive will be to 280$.
(I'ts  140$ * (exp(ln(4.1) * (ln(4.3)/ln(19.8 )))))
For the peak of 1000$ the dive is 350$   (140$ * (exp(ln(4.1) * (ln(7)/ln(19.8 ))))).
For the peak of 1600$ the dive is 440$   (140$ * (exp(ln(4.1) * (ln(11.4)/ln(19.8 ))))))

So, if you:
-have some fiat
-expect the proportionality
-expect the peak at $600

Then, instead of buying for 310$ now, you should bid for somewhere above 280$ and just wait.

I think this is a reasonably good analysis.  But when BTC is $10,000 are you really going to care whether you bought them at $310 or $280?  (They're $280 on BTC-e right now.)

Just buy some ASAP and hold them.  The boards are full of people who are kicking themselves because they missed their price point by < $10 and then never bought.

[superduh]

you are making an assumption that things will repeat proportionally. i give this 0% chance.

[Wary]

BitchicksHusband, superduh  - thanks.

[Ibian]

Buy. As much as you can regardless of price. It was too late TWO YEARS AGO for this standard of "too late". Don't lose out on the possibility of a lifetime.

[greaterninja]

I believe it was $30-$80 in march...so how was it $13 in april?

[Siegfried]

you are making an assumption that things will repeat proportionally. i give this 0% chance.

The past does not predict the future; similarities are coincidental.

[mvidetto]

I'm considering buying now as well, but I also have a fairly large portion of bitcoins.  If you believe they will continue to rise theres no reason not to buy now.

[Loki8]

BTC is too high and volatile, and  it's based on nothing more than pure gambling.

Rather, you should invest in Stocks if you have much money right now (Twitter shares surge 73% on market debut). There is much less risk...
Stock prices are also based on gambling but also on investors' expectations of the future value of a company.

[derpinheimer]

BTC is too high and volatile, and  it's based on nothing more than pure gambling.

Rather, you should invest in Stocks if you have much money right now (Twitter shares surge 73% on market debut). There is much less risk...
Stock prices are also based on gambling but also on investors' expectations of the future value of a company.

Well, yeah, unlike something with backing it could go to single digits overnight....

But, its unlikely. Very. Unlikely. So, quit QQing and accept your losses. I have and I'm much happier taking them then sitting here watch the ship set sail:)

[antimattercrusader]

BTC is too high and volatile, and  it's based on nothing more than pure gambling.

Rather, you should invest in Stocks if you have much money right now (Twitter shares surge 73% on market debut). There is much less risk...
Stock prices are also based on gambling but also on investors' expectations of the future value of a company.

*spits out beer* *snooorrrtt* *snicker*  heh hehehh hahahhaAHAHAHHA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHHAAAH *ahem* sorry.

Anyway, stock prices AND BITCOIN prices are based on investors exceptions of the future of the company/currency. While I cannot predict the future, if bitcoin were to become mainstream buying now would be like buying Microsoft when bill gates was making computers in his garage. The upside is huge. Most stocks don't offer this kind of upside potential. As for risk, it's speculative. Both stocks and bitcoin can fail.

[windjc]

BTC is too high and volatile, and  it's based on nothing more than pure gambling.

Rather, you should invest in Stocks if you have much money right now (Twitter shares surge 73% on market debut). There is much less risk...
Stock prices are also based on gambling but also on investors' expectations of the future value of a company.

Its one thing to advise people to sell BTC. But when you combine this with the advice to buy the stockmarket, this goes down as the worse post of advice I have EVER seen on this forum.

And that says a lot.

[windjc]

BTC is too high and volatile, and  it's based on nothing more than pure gambling.

Rather, you should invest in Stocks if you have much money right now (Twitter shares surge 73% on market debut). There is much less risk...
Stock prices are also based on gambling but also on investors' expectations of the future value of a company.

Well, yeah, unlike something with backing it could go to single digits overnight....

But, its unlikely. Very. Unlikely. So, quit QQing and accept your losses. I have and I'm much happier taking them then sitting here watch the ship set sail:)

Are you bullish now Derp?  Or do you still believe bitcoin is just a little niche, destined to go to zero at some point in the near future?

[CMMPro]

Good analysis but to simplify things just look into Fibonacci retracement percentages....they just work.

You can try to predict / short near the the top and then set your buys for the 50% and 78% levels and usually the 50% will get filled and very often the 78% as well in a flash crash.

Disclosure: I'm not playing any of these shorting games right now...

[testerx]

BTC is too high and volatile, and  it's based on nothing more than pure gambling.

Rather, you should invest in Stocks if you have much money right now (Twitter shares surge 73% on market debut). There is much less risk...
Stock prices are also based on gambling but also on investors' expectations of the future value of a company.

*spits out beer* *snooorrrtt* *snicker*  heh hehehh hahahhaAHAHAHHA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHHAAAH *ahem* sorry.

Anyway, stock prices AND BITCOIN prices are based on investors exceptions of the future of the company/currency. While I cannot predict the future, if bitcoin were to become mainstream buying now would be like buying Microsoft when bill gates was making computers in his garage. The upside is huge. Most stocks don't offer this kind of upside potential. As for risk, it's speculative. Both stocks and bitcoin can fail.

Sure, long term investors are buying it for the future use where it's widely adopted, etc.  But the reality is that the huge price spikes are mostly driven by people trying to hop aboard the crazy gains train.

[antimattercrusader]

Well, true, but that is still based on their speculative opinion/outlook of Bitcoin.

Ha...besides, I doubt of the average stock on the market would satisfy those wanting to get on the good ol' crazy gain train. I'm bored by the stock market at this point, but am now interested in rhodium futures... hmmm lol (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189308.0)

[superduh]

BTC is too high and volatile, and  it's based on nothing more than pure gambling.

Rather, you should invest in Stocks if you have much money right now (Twitter shares surge 73% on market debut). There is much less risk...
Stock prices are also based on gambling but also on investors' expectations of the future value of a company.

have you been diagnosed as insane!?!?!

[antimattercrusader]

BTC is too high and volatile, and  it's based on nothing more than pure gambling.

Rather, you should invest in Stocks if you have much money right now (Twitter shares surge 73% on market debut). There is much less risk...
Stock prices are also based on gambling but also on investors' expectations of the future value of a company.

have you been diagnosed as insane!?!?!

In the court of bitcointalk, I believe so.

[balanghai]

Hey, it's not too late, but your increments if you expect a plunge, will be little. If you are willing to wait for 6 months, then yes now is the time to buy.

[Loki8]

BTC is too high and volatile, and  it's based on nothing more than pure gambling.

Rather, you should invest in Stocks if you have much money right now (Twitter shares surge 73% on market debut). There is much less risk...
Stock prices are also based on gambling but also on investors' expectations of the future value of a company.

Its one thing to advise people to sell BTC. But when you combine this with the advice to buy the stockmarket, this goes down as the worse post of advice I have EVER seen on this forum.

And that says a lot.

I don't recommend people to invest their money in stocks, bitcoin, gold, poker or whatever, but for investors that have a lot of funds available and want to make extra money, the stockmarket is much safer and it's retegulated by the SEC.

Let's be honest, bitcoin is an illusion like the dollar and have potential of reaching zero today or tomorrow, but the U.S. dollar is backed by the might of the US military. It's pump and dump nothing more, nothing less.