$13.30 is a key support level pointed out by Enky on his Bitcoin Trading Signals
blog and by S3052 on his twitter account @BitcoinAnalyst
. Both analysts recommended selling (stop-loss) if the price falls below the $13.30 area. There was an ask wall of $50k-$75k between $13.50 and $13.75 placing downward pressure on a bid wall of $30k at $13.30, but that ask wall was just removed and price is on its way up at the moment, to the next ask wall at $14.00.
$13.30 is the point of a 61.8% corrective Fibonacci retracement
or a "golden retracement", from two recent extreme price differentials. The most recent one was the bounce from $12.50 to $14.70 on July 18-19. 14.70 - 0.62*(14.70 - 12.5) = 13.3. Before that, there was the bounce from $11 to $16.50 on July 5-6. 16.50 - 0.62*(16.5 - 11) = 13.09 (close enough). The correction to $12.50 after the high of $16.50 can also be considered a 76-78% Fibonacci retracement (72% to be exact).
For the moment, it appears we've (weakly) bounced from $13.30. Now the question is: short-term retracement or trend reversal? Chart patterns are one tool for deciding which, but my best match of the current chart is to a symmetrical triangle
, starting from July 5-6. From what I've read, breakouts from a symmetric triangle should happen before
it reaches the apex. It's the sign of an uncertain market when there is no breakout, and price continues sideways past the apex. That seems to be the current circumstance. The apex of the triangle starting from July 5-6 was reached in the past few days, and price is continuing sideways right around the starting median ($13.75).
My beginner's study of technical analysis. Comments and speculation welcome.