When will the federal government collapse in the US?

[Sjalq]

Possible definitions:
1. When the USD enters hyperinflation (100% or more per year)
2. When the federal gov default on its debt. (Includes debt restructuring)
3. When the federal gov has a truly balanced budget and is reducing debt at 5% or more per year.
4. When the federal gov is disbanded (would probably happen some time after 1 or 2 but might happen before or during)

I include number 3 because such a federal government would be something radically other then what exists today.

[Sjalq]

Fascinating no contest on that the system is coming to an end...

[notme]

Fascinating no contest on that the system is coming to an end...

Of course that's the result, there is no "it's not" option.

[giantdragon]

I think all governments in the world will try to mitigate recession and pay debts by printing more money. It will happen anywhere from USA to EU (Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland), UK, Japan. Cross-currency ratios (e.g. EUR/USD) probably will remain the same, but their purchasing power will drop drastically.

[Sjalq]

Fascinating no contest on that the system is coming to an end...

Of course that's the result, there is no "it's not" option.

There is the option to protest via a reply.

[HappyFunnyFoo]

Forgot the 'won't' option - U.S. dollars are still the world's safe haven currency and U.S. t-bills are China's favorite place to park their spare cash.

You crazy libertarian guys... sheesh

[indio007]

There should be a "never" vote.

Every interaction with the Federal gov't is in fact voluntary.  You don't want the Federal Gov't ... then opt out. Fill out an SSA-521, notarized a declaration of status, stop accepting their benefits. Do not cross the minimum sufficient contacts threshold and do all transactions with them at arms length.


Many people will never do this.

[Kardonxt]

God how i wish it was right now lol. Time to rip of the band aids and get back on track to being a country its citizens can be proud of.

[Bazil]

You should have a "Beyond 2025" question.  I don't think it's going anywhere anytime soon.

[foggyb]

You should have a "Beyond 2025" question.  I don't think it's going anywhere anytime soon.

Really? You think someone will prop them up from under the tidal wave of debt, please speculate on how that happens.

That's IF Americans don't take them on in direct confrontation first. The Fed is spitting in the face of the average American, that's not a sustainable governance.

[laydum]

Hm, lets start a huge BTC betting pool regarding this. Would be interesting... 

[Einewton]

lol - US Government isn't going anywhere, you'd be a fool to think it's going to end.

[foggyb]

lol - US Government isn't going anywhere, you'd be a fool to think it's going to end.

Only a fool thinks you can't keep printing money without consequences.

[CurbsideProphet]

lol - US Government isn't going anywhere, you'd be a fool to think it's going to end.

Only a fool thinks you can't keep printing money without consequences.

And only a fool would think the collapse of the largest economy in the world would not pull everyone else down with them.

[Anonanon]

The world would eventually be better off for shedding the currently failing, false economy. Hopefully, the collapse of the largest Government on the planet would drag the rest of them down.

[SgtSpike]

For the sake of this poll, since the author so biasedly decided not to include the option, I am treating 2020-2025 as the "Never" option.

[foggyb]

And only a fool would think the collapse of the largest economy in the world would not pull everyone else down with them.

Yes, it probably will.

[wumpus]

There is no 'never' option because it doesn't make sense if you know one bit about history. Empires rise and fall, nothing lasts forever. Of course it could be way after 2025 that it collapses. And it will always be due to an unexpected event, not some artificial accounting construct like a debt limit (though it could set things in motion).

[SgtSpike]

There is no 'never' option because it doesn't make sense if you know one bit about history. Empires rise and fall, nothing lasts forever. Of course it could be way after 2025 that it collapses. And it will always be due to an unexpected event, not some artificial accounting construct like a debt limit (though it could set things in motion).

Then I'll treat the "2020-2025" option as the "2020+" option.  It's not going to collapse in the next 17 years.

[foggyb]

There is no 'never' option because it doesn't make sense if you know one bit about history. Empires rise and fall, nothing lasts forever. Of course it could be way after 2025 that it collapses. And it will always be due to an unexpected event, not some artificial accounting construct like a debt limit (though it could set things in motion).

Look up the history of the Denarius and Antoninianus, two of the most common Roman coins.

The Denarius was issued around 269 BC and was 100% silver weighing 6.8 grams. By the 3rd century AD, had been debased to a smaller bronze strike with no silver content at all.

Most other Roman coins that were introduced with silver content were debased as well.

The devaluing of currency is definitively (though indirectly) correlated with the failure of empires.

The US dollar has been debased in value more than 95% in just 100 years. The Roman empire reigned for 500 years before reaching that level of inflation.