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Author Topic: if the worlds richest 1% of people decided to keep 1% of their net worth in BTC.  (Read 1624 times)
jasonjm (OP)
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November 08, 2013, 05:19:42 AM
 #1

Guess what the value per BTC would be?

$92964 per coin

yeah that's right

about the numbers I used

Number of people in world = 7 046 000 000
Number of bitcoins in circulation   11 925 000
richest 1% number of people =    70 460 000
Total world wealth   $241 000 000 000 000
Richest 1% of world hold 46% of worlds wealth



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Queezy
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November 08, 2013, 05:23:49 AM
 #2

Ummmm.....
So you think.....
But that's not how....
Oh nevermind....
let's just hope you aren't being serious
BitChick
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November 08, 2013, 05:29:32 AM
 #3

What if the middle class buy as much BTC as possible then the worlds 1% richest will no longer be the worlds richest?   Grin

1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
jasonjm (OP)
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November 08, 2013, 05:34:33 AM
 #4

What if the middle class buy as much BTC as possible then the worlds 1% richest will no longer be the worlds richest?   Grin


not really..... unless transactions are completed in BTC only with zero fiat in any part of the transaction :-)

because once you convert the BTC back to fiat, they can still only be worth the same % of fiat that went into them. And unless the 1% give you all their fiat, you have not changed anything.....


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jasonjm (OP)
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November 08, 2013, 05:35:52 AM
 #5

Ummmm.....
So you think.....
But that's not how....
Oh nevermind....
let's just hope you aren't being serious

not saying it would happen.

All I am saying is if it did happen, that is what the number would be.

I own gold and silver to diversify, and this year decided to allocate a full 3% of my net worth to BTC as an insurance because I like the concept of the mobility and non confiscation.

I am sure there are others who think the same way I do, so in a way, yes I am being serious.  It's very unlikely, but if it were to happen, that is the number, since I have always wondered what would happen if bitcoin really become a store of value like that.


you can take my numbers a step further: assume only 10% of the worlds top 1% decided to keep 1% of their net worth in BTC. The number is still $9 269 per coin.

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Peter R
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November 08, 2013, 06:05:36 AM
 #6

Ummmm.....
So you think.....
But that's not how....
Oh nevermind....
let's just hope you aren't being serious

not saying it would happen.

All I am saying is if it did happen, that is what the number would be.

I own gold and silver to diversify, and this year decided to allocate a full 3% of my net worth to BTC as an insurance because I like the concept of the mobility and non confiscation.

I am sure there are others who think the same way I do, so in a way, yes I am being serious.  It's very unlikely, but if it were to happen, that is the number, since I have always wondered what would happen if bitcoin really become a store of value like that.


you can take my numbers a step further: assume only 10% of the worlds top 1% decided to keep 1% of their net worth in BTC. The number is still $9 269 per coin.

jasonjm, I think what Queezy is getting at is that your logic wasn't exactly right.  

What you are trying to say, I think, is that if the "market cap" of bitcoin was equal to 1% of the net worth of the top 1%, then each bitcoin would be worth approximately $92,964.

If the top 1% did as you say and actually moved 1% of their wealth into bitcoin, the price of the last bitcoin bought with all that money would probably be vastly greater than $92,964.  Think about what would happen if trillions of dollars were dumped onto BitStamp!!  So your estimate was conservative  Shocked


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jasonjm (OP)
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November 08, 2013, 06:30:57 AM
 #7

yeah all at once, it would be chaos, but over years assuming people also spend coins, not just hoard them, I don't see how the math is wrong?

off topic but while I was typing this listentobitcoin made a noise I have not heard before

screenshot


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TheDragonSlayer
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November 08, 2013, 02:00:11 PM
 #8

Then Bitcoin would worth $10,000 each... but it is unlikely Smiley

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November 08, 2013, 03:00:57 PM
 #9

I beg to differ.  It may be challenging to accept, but unlikely?  More like inevitable.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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November 08, 2013, 03:05:29 PM
 #10

Guess what the value per BTC would be?

$92964 per coin

yeah that's right

about the numbers I used

Number of people in world = 7 046 000 000
Number of bitcoins in circulation   11 925 000
richest 1% number of people =    70 460 000
Total world wealth   $241 000 000 000 000
Richest 1% of world hold 46% of worlds wealth




people have been using the same argument for years about if the rich decided to back their 401ks in gold it would skyrocket. Numbers are pretty looking indeed....
jasonjm (OP)
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November 08, 2013, 03:30:32 PM
 #11

problem with gold and silver is that they are difficult to transport, and a pain to hide and keep safe.

gold and silver are not "mobile money", more like a hedge against fiat errors / inflation.

so to my mind, bitcoin is more attractive than gold or silver (and yes more risky too as it has no history compared to gold or silver).

ah well, like I said, I don't believe this will happen, but since no one else has done this "what if"  bitcoin scenario that I could find, I figured I would run some numbers just to see.

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November 08, 2013, 03:55:17 PM
 #12

put another way, gold is an insurance policy (SHTF).  bitcoin is a freaking swiss army knife:  supremely liquid, deflationary currency, high-growth investment, & mathematically secure store of value.

keep enough gold, like you keep enough ammunition, for when the power is out, and you need to defend and hunt.  frankly that's a low probability scenario, but worth insuring against in an over-extended and increasingly fragile society.

the high probability scenario is that you will want to save in btc and spend in debased fiat.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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