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Author Topic: Bitcoin will reach 5-6 dollars within 1-2 months  (Read 7059 times)
tacotime
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August 05, 2011, 06:24:12 AM
 #41

The daily return of BTC for all miners based on the numbers of TH/s just fell from 7500 to 5875...  if at every difficulty increase we see a similar drop out of miners eventually the number of people inject BTC into the market for USD/etc. will decrease and the price would have to increase.  This is, of course, classical deflationary economics; the only thing that needs to stay the same is demand.  As long as people are using it for things or there are price fluctuations, that's no problem at all.

The price of BTC is whatever people are willing to pay for it.. and as the applications of BTC are increasing rather than decreasing and number of coins mined daily are also decreasing, it's likely that it will remain here and high priced.

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zby
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August 05, 2011, 06:37:42 AM
 #42

The daily return of BTC for all miners based on the numbers of TH/s just fell from 7500 to 5875...  if at every difficulty increase we see a similar drop out of miners eventually the number of people inject BTC into the market for USD/etc. will decrease and the price would have to increase.  This is, of course, classical deflationary economics; the only thing that needs to stay the same is demand.  As long as people are using it for things or there are price fluctuations, that's no problem at all.
Does anyone know the exact timing for the algorithm to adjust to the decrease of hashing power?  Because it will adjust eventually and it will keep the number of BTC mined daily a constant.  Otherwise this would mean that bitcoin transfers will take longer - i.e. the system would lose some of it's usefulness and that should make the price drop.
tacotime
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August 05, 2011, 06:41:47 AM
 #43

Every 2016 blocks I think, which at the current rate would be about 17 days from the last difficulty change

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August 05, 2011, 06:55:44 AM
 #44

Hehheh - I thought $19.5/ BTC was a steal when I started doing  this!  I'm continuing because I recognize the potential, NOT because I made any cash back the first time around!
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August 05, 2011, 06:58:30 AM
 #45

Hehheh - I thought $19.5/ BTC was a steal when I started doing  this!  I'm continuing because I recognize the potential, NOT because I made any cash back the first time around!
Good attitude, we are all early adopters now. If the real early adopters show some support we will see some real rocket-ship style rallying.

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symbian
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August 05, 2011, 09:00:12 AM
 #46

The daily return of BTC for all miners based on the numbers of TH/s just fell from 7500 to 5875...  if at every difficulty increase we see a similar drop out of miners eventually the number of people inject BTC into the market for USD/etc. will decrease and the price would have to increase.  This is, of course, classical deflationary economics; the only thing that needs to stay the same is demand.  As long as people are using it for things or there are price fluctuations, that's no problem at all.

The price of BTC is whatever people are willing to pay for it.. and as the applications of BTC are increasing rather than decreasing and number of coins mined daily are also decreasing, it's likely that it will remain here and high priced.

Monetary supply for Bitcoin this year always grow constantly: 50*6*24=7200BTC per day (or 72000$(!) per day based on current exchange rate). And it doesn't depend on demand of coins in economy. I don't think demand of coins grow so fast now, I suppose it is constant or decreases. This is plain inflationary economics, so exchange rate will drop constantly in near future until something in coins demand happened.

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August 05, 2011, 09:07:57 AM
 #47

Its only 7200 BTC per day (= 50*6*24).

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cloon
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August 05, 2011, 09:12:14 AM
 #48

producing doesnt mean putting on the market!

the miners decide if they inflate the Bitcoin...

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symbian
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August 05, 2011, 10:52:12 AM
 #49

Some percent of miners always invest, so they need to convert BTC into USD, because AMD, Intel and Foxconn don't accept BTC.

Enky1974
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August 05, 2011, 11:59:13 AM
 #50

Any thoughts on the 5-6 dollars price target?
I agree with you, i derived a 6.50$ target with a quantitative approach. It is a possible target for this weekly down swing started at 32$ 2 months ago.

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molecular
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August 05, 2011, 12:07:50 PM
 #51

Some percent of miners always invest, so they need to convert BTC into USD, because AMD, Intel and Foxconn don't accept BTC.
(emphasis mine)

and there my friend, you have identified the real problem.


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foggyb
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August 05, 2011, 03:31:08 PM
 #52

That said, the poster may be right. I was ready to signa contract for a larger data center installation for bitcoin mining and just called it off - the numbers did not work, not the least because pretty much everyone on the other side of the game decided to demand more money. Too much risk, too high price. Especially with the rent up.  I expect quite a lot of people will loose their guts at one point - not everone pays 15 US cents or lower, some pay significantly more and for the mmining is less and less efficient.

So mining is no longer super profitable. That's not news to most of us.
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August 05, 2011, 07:55:50 PM
 #53

I don't know about $5-6, but it looks like we're gearing up for another $8-9 visit.
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August 07, 2011, 12:03:36 AM
 #54

It took nine days to reach my target price.
BTC Economist
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August 07, 2011, 12:04:38 AM
 #55

It took nine days to reach my target price.

Good call.  I wasn't sure of the timeline of the crash, but you timed it brilliantly.

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fastandfurious
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August 07, 2011, 12:05:24 AM
 #56

Another chance to sell at high six dollar,  the market is kind.
fastandfurious
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August 07, 2011, 12:06:18 AM
 #57

It took nine days to reach my target price.

Good call.  I wasn't sure of the timeline of the crash, but you timed it brilliantly.

Smiley
old_engineer
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August 07, 2011, 12:31:43 AM
 #58

It took nine days to reach my target price.

After waiting for about a month, my orders at 8.xx, 7.xx, and 6.xx have been filled.  Still waiting for the order at 5.xx to get filled, though of course with mixed feelings.  If it's filled, that would mean that the economy is worth half what it was a week ago.  Ouch.  It'll be like hanging out at a company after its stock has crashed, with everyone is a bit mum (don't ask me how I know this...)

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August 07, 2011, 12:34:12 AM
 #59

Op was wrong. It took 1 week.
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August 07, 2011, 12:36:01 AM
 #60

maybe he should re-title the thread as $0.50-$1 within 4-6 weeks.

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