Me=Noob in a bubble -> no problem or am i missing something here?

[Roccker]

Hii there!

Noob in a bubble, that's recipe for disaster, is it

I would appreciate your perspective:
It seems this to me: Everybody is in bubble-mode and hovers his mouse over the 'sell all' button to sell as soon as the collapse starts.
Is that kinda right?

I am wondering a few things:
- No stop-loss function on bitstamp (what is up with that?)
But i guess more 'professional' traders have computers and computer programs running to sell automaticall as soon the bubble starts, meaning they have stop-loss with their api software(?).
- How quick is the fall when the bubble crashes?
It seems so 'secure to me (but i guess it's not): I imagine just monitoring the bitcoin value, and when i see it falling from 350 to 340 i just click 'sell all' and no problem everything is saved at 340. What is the problem? (i got a feeling i don't get something and i am gonna lose a lot of money here:))
Is the fall soo quick that you easily lose money anyway?
I 'heard' in the last crash that it fell in a 'couple' of hours.
Ok, in all cases, there is this: when i am sleeping for 7 hours (no stop-loss function) and the crash comes, then i am beeped.

Thanks for your input!


ps damn i kick myself for needing so much time for identification process (had to get some documents), cause i found bitcoin per accident at about 140 and then i would have had the balls to put in some serious money (in my case 10000dollars:)). But then it was 200 and i thought the bubble already ended, well i got now 1bc at 255, 1bc at 296 and 1bc at 314.

[BadAss.Sx]

I can't sell...i dropped all my btc in a transaction in the future...so lets hope nobody stops mining

And don't worry, there will be a dump next week. People will take their profit and the price will go down rocket low.

[Tulak]

There is alot of media coverage on bitcoins right now. But as soon as the media coverage is gone or turns into negative press. (Just like the inputs.io incident)
the trust in bitcoins will plummet and we are back to 100$. I cannot see into the future, nobody can.

[DannyHamilton]

It seems this to me: Everybody is in bubble-mode and hovers his mouse over the 'sell all' button to sell as soon as the collapse starts.
Is that kinda right?

Everybody?  No.  Many of us like it when the price falls.  That's a great time to buy.

- No stop-loss function on bitstamp (what is up with that?)

Most of the bitcoin exchanges are rather basic in the order types they support

But i guess more 'professional' traders have computers and computer programs running to sell automaticall as soon the bubble starts, meaning they have stop-loss with their api software(?).

Probably, but during a crash there is so much activity it can often overwhelm the API interface.

- How quick is the fall when the bubble crashes?

No way to know for sure.  Possibly minutes or hours.

It seems so 'secure to me (but i guess it's not): I imagine just monitoring the bitcoin value, and when i see it falling from 350 to 340 i just click 'sell all' and no problem everything is saved at 340. What is the problem? (i got a feeling i don't get something and i am gonna lose a lot of money here:))

During a crash, the exchanges tend to become overwhelmed with the orders being placed.  There is often a lag of many minutes or even hours between when you click the sell button and when the sell order gets into the order book. Even if you do get a sell order into the order book, you may not find any "buy" orders.  By the time your order's turn is being processed, you might have to wait for a buyer to place an order, and your order will then complete at whatever rate they happen to be willing to buy for ($0.10?)

Is the fall soo quick that you easily lose money anyway?

It can be.

[HMF]

There is alot of media coverage on bitcoins right now. But as soon as the media coverage is gone or turns into negative press. (Just like the inputs.io incident)
the trust in bitcoins will plummet and we are back to 100$. I cannot see into the future, nobody can.

A currency tripling in a month isn't a real currency.  To actually be used in commerce the price needs to be relatively stable (whatever the price ends up at).

[Roccker]

Thanks so much DannyHamilton !

I guess i'll try to ride sell at the high point of the bubble with my wealth of 2 bitcoins - and miserably fail and learn from this for the next bubble

For real.. late buying into a bubble is really bad for my sleep cause i am afraid of the 7hours i am away from the computer.

[gripflierGO]

I would appreciate your perspective:
It seems this to me: Everybody is in bubble-mode and hovers his mouse over the 'sell all' button to sell as soon as the collapse starts.
Is that kinda right?

When the crash starts you will have hard time to sell your BTC.
You have to sell before the crash starts 
Not easy to get best profit, right ? Welcome to trader world

[zeroday]

Just bought at $355. Don't think any serious correction, except bear traps, will happen under $500.
Chinese bulls are unstoppable.

[ChronoX5]

To get the maximum value you have to sell while the price is still going up. Selling during a flash crash is almost impossible be it because of lags or psychologically. There will be no plateau at the top the price trend will just go from straight up to straight down. No early warning signs in a real bubble.

[SheHadMANHands]

Bear circle jerk in here.  Funny how we're always "going back to $100", which is really just an arbitrary amount..  but it "feels" right.. right?  Lol

[BitChick]

Just bought at $355. Don't think any serious correction, except bear traps, will happen under $500.
Chinese bulls are unstoppable.

Yes.  There were some serious dumps last night that tried to cause a crash and it was just a blip on the radar.  The price did stagnate a bit because of it (the price was on a wild tear before that happened) but that make me even less confident that we will see any prices below $250 again.  I have always been bullish though, but as more people want to buy bitcoin there will be more with a price in mind they are willing to jump in at and are just waiting for it to go there.  For some that will be as high as $300 now.

[firstlast]

Just remember: he who panics first panics best.

[theonewhowaskazu]

Personally I think the chances of a sustained crash before $480-$500 are close to 0. $100 higher than where we are right now - yea, then I'll start worrying a bit.

[DannyHamilton]

Thanks so much DannyHamilton !

I guess i'll try to ride sell at the high point of the bubble with my wealth of 2 bitcoins - and miserably fail and learn from this for the next bubble

For real.. late buying into a bubble is really bad for my sleep cause i am afraid of the 7hours i am away from the computer.

Impossible to predict:

January 1 2013 Bitcoin was at $14, it ran up to $266 by April 10, then crashed to $100 in 7 hours finally bottoming out around $50 on April 16.

Does that mean:
October 1 2013 Bitcoin was at $140, it will run up to $2660 by January 10, then crash to $1000 in 7 hours bottoming out around $500 on January 16?



Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but if it happens that way, then you aren't late buying into this bubble.  You'd still be buying below the point where it will bottom out.  If that's true, then you'd still make a profit even if you sell at the very bottom of the bubble burst.

[notme]

Personally I think the chances of a sustained crash before $480-$500 are close to 0. $100 higher than where we are right now - yea, then I'll start worrying a bit.

Depends how fast we get there.

I have no faith in the speculators to do anything smooth and easy though. After all 10% of them make lots of money on the volatility (so 100% embrace it).

For the fun of it, I've taken a couple bitdimes and put them on bitfinex.  I've been playing "buy the ATH".  Every time there is an ATH, I take a small position(fuck max leverage) and then close it for a small profit.  I keep a tight stop and so far I've banked 15% profits to btc with 4 positions over two days.  No losses yet, but like I said, keep a stop loss.  And be aware that your stop might execute lower than it is set if there is a sudden move.  Slippage can be a bitch in this market, although things seem to be better now that the market is more distributed. 

[BlueTemplar]

Bear circle jerk in here.  Funny how we're always "going back to $100", which is really just an arbitrary amount..  but it "feels" right.. right?  Lol

It probably "feels right" because that's the value around which the prices have oscillated for the last 7 months. I bet there were many comments saying the $12 price felt "just right" in the first months of 2013...

If only I had noticed that earlier...

[phatsphere]

google "fibbonacci retracement" -> http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp

once you know where the end of the run-up is, this could become helpful.

[superresistant]

This is not like the previous bubble, the market has expended recently like never before

[smoothie]

selling over time is always a good idea, especially selling small amounts when the price rises sharply.

But I would never sell all at once. That is silly.

[sgbett]

Never sell during the crash! That's when you be buyin'