Butter-Bot vs buy and hold

[velacreations]

I'm looking at butter bot, which is an EMA trading bot: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=197175.0

You can back test strategies, and I've got a decent strategy, but when back tested for a few months, profit is around 50%.  That sounds great, but when you look at bitcoin value, the value increased by 250% in that same time frame.

So, is the EMA strategy a good strategy for something like bitcoin, that increases in value so quickly?  Or is it better to just buy and hold?

[velacreations]

yeah, I'm not seeing many of the trading bots competing with B&H.

BUT, making some manual moves could have significantly increased your holdings during this run-up, especially at major resistance points, like $200 and $300

[pulsecat]

yeah, I'm not seeing many of the trading bots competing with B&H.

BUT, making some manual moves could have significantly increased your holdings during this run-up, especially at major resistance points, like $200 and $300

Let me put my two cents in. There are lots of strategies that can compete with Buy and Hold:
For example MACD https://cryptotrader.org/backtests/7hzxsGhAyanDoKpZK

Code:

2013-10-09 00:00 Simulation started. Balance: 5000.00 USD
2013-10-09 03:00 BUY 36.298 BTC at 136.99
2013-10-17 04:00 SELL 36.298 BTC at 152.30
2013-10-17 17:00 BUY 35.161 BTC at 155.50
2013-10-24 13:00 SELL 35.161 BTC at 217.00
2013-10-26 07:00 BUY 38.356 BTC at 196.75
2013-11-09 03:00 Simulation completed. Balance: 38.356 BTC (13432.16 USD)

As compared to B&H  https://cryptotrader.org/backtests/SgNaSdx62vpNniua3

Code:

2013-10-09 00:00 Simulation started. Balance: 5000.00 USD
2013-10-09 00:00 BUY 36.216 BTC at 137.30
2013-11-09 03:00 Simulation completed. Balance: 36.216 BTC (12682.96 USD)

Also don't forget that Buy and Hold strategy loses money when market crashes.

[Xer0]

Code:

2013-10-17 04:00 SELL 36.298 BTC at 152.30
2013-10-17 17:00 BUY 35.161 BTC at 155.50

lol, this bot was such a genius like me

[PrymeTyme]

if someone is unable to make any profit in a BULL market ... go look for something else.. or simply Buy and Hold

[velacreations]

if someone is unable to make any profit in a BULL market ... go look for something else.. or simply Buy and Hold

yeah, it's not just about making money, but maximizing returns, as well.  bull markets don't last forever.

[velacreations]

Let me put my two cents in. There are lots of strategies that can compete with Buy and Hold:
For example MACD https://cryptotrader.org/backtests/7hzxsGhAyanDoKpZK
...

Also don't forget that Buy and Hold strategy loses money when market crashes.

yes, I'm sure some strategies are better, the ButterBot uses EMA, seems to be a long-term strategy, not for big run ups like we've had lately. It seems that MACD doesn't fair so well on btc-e, though.

Any other good strategies you could share with us?  I'm a total newbie, so learning about these strategies helps me understand all of this a lot more.  Thanks for sharing!

[bitleif]

Sorry to be a noob, but could anyone explain what "EMA" means?

[notme]

Sorry to be a noob, but could anyone explain what "EMA" means?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Exponential_moving_average

[velacreations]

Sorry to be a noob, but could anyone explain what "EMA" means?

Exponential Moving Average: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_moving_average#Exponential_moving_average%20(concept)

It's a strategy, described in detail here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501

ButterBot is a bot that executes that strategy as a trading algorithm.

I'm pretty new to all of this, myself, so don't take advice form me.

[velacreations]

I'm loving the cryptotrader.org simulation engine!  Awesome!

I have yet to find an algorithm that beats buy and hold for the bubbler.  any ideas?

[Joerii]

I'm a fan of BBOT and have been using it for a few months.

It can cost you money to have it trade too much. You get losing trades called "whipsawes" when the bot sells due to sensitive sell trigger. Its then buys back when the EMA ( Exponential Moving Avarage ) lines cross again. you lose like 1 or 2 % per trade like that but after a while it adds up.

The biggest reason I use BBOT instead of buy and hold is this : it prevents my investment from taking a BIG hit when there's a crash and MtGox's trading engine lags so badly that I can't sell.

BBOT is tied into the trade API, and can sell my BTC even if I cannot do so manually.
 
So I see BBOT as an insurance policiy against that.

[velacreations]

is BBOT butterbot?

[ThrillHou]

Had a similar xperience with BBot. It's all about the thresholds IMO.  Also are you trading 10 21 hourly data or??? Some many things to tweak with this BBot but how do I do this  backtesting???