How much to sell off on the way up

[Teal Deer]

Assuming you play it safe and sell off a percentage of your coins as we rise, and assuming you have 10 coins, how many, if any would you sell right now at $350?

0? .5? 1? 2?

On the climb to 266 I was starting to get weary about when I should sell before the crash, but I let greed and insane optimism on the boards get in my way. Gox lag and hyper fear got in the way of my sell off and I ended up selling for a lot less than the high, even with price alarms set on my phone.

I'm not sure where to start getting careful this time though.

[conspirosphere.tk]

maybe up to 10-15% is safe enough.
i'd say now is about time for a correction.
but i expect that this time it would be short and shallow if anything at all, while the risk of having to catch up once out could be greater.
so i just sit tight for the long term.

[Elwar]

Assuming you play it safe and sell off a percentage of your coins as we rise, and assuming you have 10 coins, how many, if any would you sell right now at $350?

0? .5? 1? 2?

On the climb to 266 I was starting to get weary about when I should sell before the crash, but I let greed and insane optimism on the boards get in my way. Gox lag and hyper fear got in the way of my sell off and I ended up selling for a lot less than the high, even with price alarms set on my phone.

I'm not sure where to start getting careful this time though.

If you have 10 BTC, hold them until you can buy 11 more so that you can have one of a million possible bitcoins.

[aminorex]

That's a very conservative approach.  As such it tends to optimize risk rather than return.  I generally prefer the approach wherein one develops a model which predicts when the tops and bottoms are imminent, lightening up when the probability of a reversal exceeds a threshold.

Presently my model tells me that the only thing that is likely to result in a downward reversal is a profit-taking motive starting in China.  When that happens it is likely to be hard and fast, and occur overnight for Western market participants, but is likely to be short-lived, remove some froth from the market, and set bitcoin on a higher valuation plateau, somewhere above 200.  But of course new data can produce entirely different predictions, and every second of the day generates new data, so such models need to be taken magna cum grano salis.

[pythonista]

Here is my logic - the last time we had an exponential rise like this in April, the price crashed from $266 to $70 - a 73% drop. This time I dont think its going to be nearly as hard but you've got to be ready for it, so I just sold about 20% of my BTC, and will buy back again when the Chinese have had enough and this rally pops.

[Qoheleth]

Back when I was still actively trading, my rule of thumb was "half my winnings".

Let's say I bought those 10 bitcoins at $200, and haven't made any moves since then - a $2000 investment in USD terms. In that case, I'll have made 3500/2000=$1500 USD, so I'd sell $750USD worth of bitcoins, or about 2.14 BTC. If, later on, the price increased to $450, then my gains as measured from my previous position would be $786, so I'd sell an additional 870 minicoins (0.87 BTC). Of course, if the price were to go down instead of up, returning to, say, $250 instead of rocketing to $450, I'd apply the logic in reverse, buying back equal to half my losses ($350-$250=$100, $100 *(10BTC-2.14BTC) = $786 lost, ($786/$250)/2 = a 1.572BTC buy)

You can choose a different ratio. Half is traditional, because then you end up with something isomorphic to a "portfolio balancing" strategy, but if you'd rather mostly hold you can go with a 1/3 gearing, or 1/4... or anything you like, really. Just be consistent.

[zedicus]

"Hold!!! For the longest time!!"  lol
(got that tune in my head)

------------
Seriously tho.. Ive been pretty solid about holding and its not until recently that i started thinking about an exit strategy but i dont know if im looking for one! Outside of regulatory hurdles i think bitcoin is doing fine.  

That said i also have a small conservative bone that pokes at me every once in a while so im coming to a compromise and doing 6%.
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So 6% it is..
After you have decided how much to sell off percentage wise! When do you do it???



What gauge do you use to initiate a sell in the incremental sell off gameplan?


A)  Price rise x amount then sell 10% ??


B)  If price does not go up in x amount of time then initiate incremental sell?


C)  ignore conservative bone, go balls to the wall and dont sell shit!



Your answer _________.



hint : http://data.bitcoinity.org/#ccacdfdiaa

[johnblaze]

even with price alarms set on my phone.

how do you do this?

please tell!

[zedicus]

"Bitcoin paranoid " :   ( Android )  


"Bitcoin Alerts " :   ( Android )

[johnblaze]

"Bitcoin paranoid " :   ( Android )  


"Bitcoin Alerts " :   ( Android )

excellent thanks

[piramida]

10% at 400, 10% at 500, etc

10 BTC is low, you want to try and radically grow your position, thats why you need to risk.