Why do people think that they can time the market?

[squatz1]

No one is able to do this (timing the market) in traditional markets but everyone does try to do it both in traditional markets and in crypto. Why do people think that they're able to do this?

Is it because they think they can do it while no one else can? Let me know folks.

[1715137509]

1715137509

[btc_angela]

No one is able to do this (timing the market) in traditional markets but everyone does try to do it both in traditional markets and in crypto. Why do people think that they're able to do this?

Is it because they think they can do it while no one else can? Let me know folks.

I guess people just wanted to know how much they can make a 'educated guess'. There's no difference in like a roulette or a baccarat game. They think they can predict it and when they hit it, they feel like they are invincible and can accurate hit in the next time, however, they will feel sad when they got it wrong. Yeah, maybe is like a badge or something, no other people can predict except you and that will make you feel great.

[lancelotte04]

No one is able to do this (timing the market) in traditional markets but everyone does try to do it both in traditional markets and in crypto. Why do people think that they're able to do this?

Is it because they think they can do it while no one else can? Let me know folks.

Just buy when everything is in red and sell if green.

[Jaycee99]

By means of answering this I would say this from what I know and  learn. I am one of those people who just guessed the market which I do which is base on past markets history and thats is for me fine its because people are seeing interest if they want to go and the flow and invest to see if there guess its true. Also they can predict this because they really studied it and have high hopes that it would increase.

[crisanto01]

What I know for now is they are studying at least the market, they are doing educated guess and with their own basis, seeking and very particular with the history of such coins that they want, they are making sure that they are correct and sure for at least 80%, not that accurate but at least they are doing best to know what will market flow.

[lili song]

Human is greedy creature so as long as they can achieve something profitable , they will do anything although it's risking their wealth

By means of answering this I would say this from what I know and  learn. I am one of those people who just guessed the market which I do which is base on past markets history and thats is for me fine its because people are seeing interest if they want to go and the flow and invest to see if there guess its true.

Personally , crypto market is far more unpredictable rather than ordinary stock exchange so eventhough you've learn in advance, you still able experience loss on crypto trading.

[k_kuchkarov]

No You are mistaken, in every market there is an analyst!
There is a calculation, everything can be proved mathematical.
There are many books you can read.

[squatz1]

No You are mistaken, in every market there is an analyst!
There is a calculation, everything can be proved mathematical.
There are many books you can read.

That simply isn't true, there is no way (mathematical or not) to prove what the market is going to decide. The market decides all, analysts know nothing -- brokers know nothing, no one knows if the market is going to go up, down, in circles, or whatever.

And many books on what?

[tomahawk9]

No one is able to do this (timing the market) in traditional markets but everyone does try to do it both in traditional markets and in crypto. Why do people think that they're able to do this?

Is it because they think they can do it while no one else can? Let me know folks.

I'll be refering to the experts from traditional markets and the "experts" posting TA charts on tradingview. I think they know it's almost impossible to guess what the next move is going to be, but to them, timing the crypto market correctly gives them a sense of authority ^[1] among the cryptocurrency newcomers and those who don’t have a lot of knowledge about crypto yet they've been in the game for quite a while. Maybe they do this to try to make an "educated guess" like some users have said, or perhaps they do it to gain a following, a group of folks who will follow whatever they (authority) say about the crypto market because of their record of making the right calls at the right time, people tend to follow someone who's knowledgeable and trustworthy.

To be honest, the whole thing is complex, to some people timing the market using hypothesis or techincal analysis is actually a viable strategy (for investing and/or Trading), to some others, it's nothing more than pure speculation as it is extremely difficult to predict future price movements in a highly speculative market.

1. The Principle of Authority.  http://www.influencepeople.biz/2009/04/authority.html

[Fazlurkhan.kz]

These people just "predict" things not actually sate whats going to happen. They do so by all they have researched in the past and have studied the technical analysis. So, that gives them a bit confidence in what is going to be the future of the market in a given time. But the people just making baseless predictions by making predictions based on their past LUCK experiences are just going to realise soon enough that no one can time the market and luck is not by anyone's side every damn time. 

[Ctn]

No one is able to do this (timing the market) in traditional markets but everyone does try to do it both in traditional markets and in crypto. Why do people think that they're able to do this?

Is it because they think they can do it while no one else can? Let me know folks.

I guess people just wanted to know how much they can make a 'educated guess'. There's no difference in like a roulette or a baccarat game. They think they can predict it and when they hit it, they feel like they are invincible and can accurate hit in the next time, however, they will feel sad when they got it wrong. Yeah, maybe is like a badge or something, no other people can predict except you and that will make you feel great.

SO you mean its like when you get the winning at first time you get confident about the next round and then you go for it blindly. But when the next round turns out to be bad then the psychology starts playing the game where it says you will win and win big this time but you dont really. Then your brain starts working where it says that you will get your losses and profit in this round and this keeps going on forever.

Yes off course the time kills it, if you dont control it then it will kill your game for sure. This is very common thing to happen in the world of crypto currency.

[Slow death]

Why do people think that they're able to do this?

because they study markets, they learn how markets work, that is their work


see the candles, watch the chart all day and take a course of technical analysis that you will realize that if you look at the chart during the all day you will see patterns of trend reversals, falling trend and other patterns, you can know when will low and when will high, but predict the long run is another story very difficult to do and all predictions fail.

Is it because they think they can do it while no one else can? Let me know folks.

because they study markets

Just buy when everything is in red and sell if green.

good suggestion, but sometimes it turns red and then green but the price has not recovered.

for example:

someone buys bitcoin for the price of $ 10,000 and bitcoin drops to $8000 (this one in red) and rises to $8500 (this one in green), you will not sell just because it is in green.

Human is greedy creature so as long as they can achieve something profitable , they will do anything although it's risking their wealth

well, unfortunately in this world is full of people who have ambition exaggerated, people who are capable of killing hundreds of other people because they want gold, diamond and oil that is in the region that does not belong to them

No You are mistaken, in every market there is an analyst!
There is a calculation, everything can be proved mathematical.
There are many books you can read.

I agree

[buwaytress]

Same reason anyone thinks they can trade. They think of the patterns they would like the charts to show them, and then they collect enough evidence to support that pattern. Also, traders sometimes don't want to recognise that they can and usually do get lucky when "trialling" or "testing" trades. They don't realise the huge psychological influence on a learning or test trade, and when entering with actual, significant portions of portfolio balances.

A healthy recognition that we get lucky sometimes will prevent us from crediting our skill and knowledge.

The only way you can time the market is if your a whale or if you have major insider information like when roger ver knew about coinbase adding bitcoin cash.

This is also one reason now that you point it out. Some people believe they've come into first-hand information and trade on it!

[Starone1]

No one is able to do this (timing the market) in traditional markets but everyone does try to do it both in traditional markets and in crypto. Why do people think that they're able to do this?

Is it because they think they can do it while no one else can? Let me know folks.

I guess people just wanted to know how much they can make a 'educated guess'. There's no difference in like a roulette or a baccarat game. They think they can predict it and when they hit it, they feel like they are invincible and can accurate hit in the next time, however, they will feel sad when they got it wrong. Yeah, maybe is like a badge or something, no other people can predict except you and that will make you feel great.

Timing the market is not an easy job. It is all the speculation and prediction. Besides, the invisible hand and the market forces are solely responsible for the timing of the market. If the demand for the coins goes up, the prices will also rise because the law of demand is valid in the case of cryptocurrency as well. Some one keeping a huge share of Bitcoin can also alter the values like the monopoly in the market.

[BlockEye]

No one is able to do this (timing the market) in traditional markets but everyone does try to do it both in traditional markets and in crypto. Why do people think that they're able to do this?

Is it because they think they can do it while no one else can? Let me know folks.

That's why there are experts or professional in every fields, they might not that accurate sometimes on time or amount but from studies with their tools and perception they can read the flow. The only thinh they might not considered that can affect the market are FUDS that comes and goes in the market.

[Thirdspace]

Is it because they think they can do it while no one else can? Let me know folks.

...within the apparent randomness of chaotic complex systems, there are underlying patterns, constant feedback loops, repetition, self-similarity, fractals, self-organization...

based on Chaos theory, I would say they are trying to time the market by figuring out the patterns and repetitions of market behaviors
if you one of the chaos theory believers, you believe in this chaotic world there always a hidden pattern behind everything
and there is no completely random pattern only possibly not yet known complex pattern

[caloy06]

I think, if people think that they can time the market is to good plan and strategy to trading in market. We need good time to trading in market to get a high value rate in your invest trading site. Many users are needs a high value interest if users are invest in trading. Ask me if I invest in trading site we need time and good strategy to don't loss your invest.

[Reid]

It could be just their instincts that tell them to do the trade and assume it will go to the way they want it.

Manual traders to this and I am guilty of it. I don't want to use bots so that I can feel the essence of trading. Timing the market and watching the fluctuations first before making choices.
You could also say that could be a good guess by one trader. I would pick that choice rather than believing any bullshit trading prediction on where it will go.

[chris200x9]

No You are mistaken, in every market there is an analyst!
There is a calculation, everything can be proved mathematical.
There are many books you can read.

Markets not only runs based on just calculations because if that is true then many experts should have made tonnes of money from the market and they no need to work for any company instead they can earn a lot of money for themselves.

I do agree that these experts are good in finding markets moves but they can't predict the market sentiments because it all depends on the current news. Any bad or good news can change these experts calculations easily.

[Koro-Sensei]

No one is able to do this (timing the market) in traditional markets but everyone does try to do it both in traditional markets and in crypto. Why do people think that they're able to do this?

Is it because they think they can do it while no one else can? Let me know folks.

I guess people just wanted to know how much they can make a 'educated guess'. There's no difference in like a roulette or a baccarat game. They think they can predict it and when they hit it, they feel like they are invincible and can accurate hit in the next time, however, they will feel sad when they got it wrong. Yeah, maybe is like a badge or something, no other people can predict except you and that will make you feel great.

I've read some books about trading and I've encountered the same as this it's like pointing out the good investment unconsciously why? The one I've read was an exceptional learner and a good speaker from various knowledge and combine it together sometimes he said you can pick or pinpoint the good one based on his instincts with the knowledge he acquired from learning and experiences through it.