Mining at a loss: Insurmountable Problem in the near future or am I mistaken?

[ttk2]

niemivh you are right, mining will not be profitable in the future.  Bitcoin is the only commodity in history that has a GUARANTEED REDUCTION in rewards by 50% every few years until returns drop to ZERO.  Then you are depending on transaction fees which have no guarantees that they will be significant.

Yes this is right, but near future is a mischarecterization. Weak security followed by sabotage followed by collapse will take decades to come to pass. 2nd mischarecterization is hardware quality. Much more important will be what you are paying for electricity. Some people have it for free. Others as low as 5 us cents per kwh. These people will be the medium term miners.

Right now i am still mining. Bubble guarenteed to burst in decades can remain inflated for decades.
People might see the light with regards to proof of stake before the disaster occurs. Then the bubble would not need to pop even in decades.

I will admit the conditions for survival in the multi-decade outlook are specific, but it is possible. If we get enough transaction volume transaction fees of less than 1/10th of a cent per transaction can add up to many times the current network security.

[m0w3r]

I will keep my mining rigs running no matter what.  I'll completely cover the electricity costs if needed (provided I have a job to pay) at full loss.
So, there is no cost problem for me personally such as pointed out by the OP.    

We must do something to change/replace this central bank monetary system that is destroying the western world.  If bitcoin fails, then something similar but better must be created to replace it.  Bitcoin may not be the best possible thing, but please tell me a better avenue available.  Bitcoin is way more important than any monetary benefit, at least to me anyway.

[TraderTimm]

Not only should this thread be in "Mining", but there is the overlooked aspect of miners whose gear is completely paid off, so they don't really care as much about margin compression from difficulty or price.

Anyway, I love the delicious irony of threads started by people who say they have no vested interest, but presume to tell everyone exactly how things are going to be. Is it just an ego thing?

[Vod]

I will keep my mining rigs running no matter what.  I'll completely cover the electricity costs if needed (provided I have a job to pay) at full loss.

That is an awesome attitude, and is the same thing I do.  Sure, it may not be considered profitable at every moment, but I believe in the technology and I believe prices will rise.

[RandyFolds]

Not only should this thread be in "Mining", but there is the overlooked aspect of miners whose gear is completely paid off, so they don't really care as much about margin compression from difficulty or price.

Anyway, I love the delicious irony of threads started by people who say they have no vested interest, but presume to tell everyone exactly how things are going to be. Is it just an ego thing?

Seriously. I am also blown away that people consider the power bill to be a huge hindrance to someone who is established and employed. $100 a month is about the cheapest hobby you can find, short of picking up shinies you find on the street. Makes me think that there might be a huge chunk of users here who haven't entered the real world yet.

[newMeat1]

Don't worry guys, a new breed of hardware is on the way 

[tvbcof]

Don't worry guys, a new breed of hardware is on the way 

What I would like is something in the form factor of a heating element which could be threaded into a water tank.  A couple of high current wires, and tough cable with a female RJ45 is all I want to see.  Actually, throw in a serial port on the cable as well maybe.  The whole thing should operate at something north of 100 C and shut down automatically if it got much hotter than that.

Can you do it?

[Mousepotato]

I love it when people wait until mining is finally profitable to post these "zomg mining is no longer profitable" threads.

[Mousepotato]

SPEND $10K TO BUILD A SYSTEM THAT WILL MINE 700 BTC/DAY WITH BREAK-EVEN TIME OF 12 YEARS





OMG YOUR TWO $110 5830'S WILL TAKE 60 DAYS TO PAY OFF! MINING IS NO LONGER PROFITABLE

[Vod]

Don't worry guys, a new breed of hardware is on the way 

What I would like is something in the form factor of a heating element which could be threaded into a water tank.  A couple of high current wires, and tough cable with a female RJ45 is all I want to see.  Actually, throw in a serial port on the cable as well maybe.  The whole thing should operate at something north of 100 C and shut down automatically if it got much hotter than that.

Can you do it?

You can immerse any computer component into a water tank - just make sure the water has been purified to remove the conductive minerals.

[kloinko1n]

Don't worry guys, a new breed of hardware is on the way 

What I would like is something in the form factor of a heating element which could be threaded into a water tank.  A couple of high current wires, and tough cable with a female RJ45 is all I want to see.  Actually, throw in a serial port on the cable as well maybe.  The whole thing should operate at something north of 100 C and shut down automatically if it got much hotter than that.

Can you do it?

You can immerse any computer component into a water tank - just make sure the water has been purified to remove the conductive minerals.

Huh?
Any references to back this up?

[kjj]

Look  i know we seem impolite, but we have heard this again and again and again and again from almost day 1. It gets bothersome after the 100th time and after the 1000th time we get a little short tempered. When something new is brought to the table we debate and come to our own conclusions, you have brought nothing new to the table, your just rehashing a point we have all heard 10 times today alone. We sound like an echo chamber simply because we have already debated this with the guy before you and the guy before him and so on and so forth. I apologize on behalf of this form but i really cant blame them for being like this after dealing with the exact same questions brought up every 10 minutes each time the author believing that he was the first one to see this terrible problem, and reiterating that we are en echo chamber simply because we reached a consensus the first time someone asked this question. 

+1

[kjj]

You can immerse any computer component into a water tank - just make sure the water has been purified to remove the conductive minerals.

Huh?
Any references to back this up?

It is pretty well known that water itself isn't a conductor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_resistivity_and_conductivity

The table gives a rho value of 180,000 ohms per meter for deionized water.

But deionized water doesn't like to stay deionized.  You'd be better off using Flourinert.

[kloinko1n]

You can immerse any computer component into a water tank - just make sure the water has been purified to remove the conductive minerals.

Huh?
Any references to back this up?

It is pretty well known that water itself isn't a conductor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_resistivity_and_conductivity

The table gives a rho value of 180,000 ohms per meter for deionized water.

But deionized water doesn't like to stay deionized.  You'd be better off using Flourinert.

180 kOhm/m sounds impressive, but if you look at the sub-mm distances of the electronics on your motherboard, you'll see the resistance reduced to less than 180 Ohm.
Doesn't look impressive anymore at all.
And the dielectric constant of water, wouldn't it mess with the capacities of the datalines on the mobo? Practically messing up the timings?
I'd be very wary of using demineralised water to immerse my mobo or GPU in.

And Edit:
From your source:
"Fluorinert may be harmful if inhaled and care should be taken to avoid contact with eyes and skin. No health effects are expected by ingestion of Fluorinert, however. Use should be constrained to closed systems and reduced volumes as fluorinated oils have a very high global warming potential and a long atmospheric lifetime."
YUK!

And Edit 2:
You got me with your 180 kOhm/m
Actually it's 180kΩ.m, which comes from

Code:

ρ = 180 kΩ/m/m²

Which translates to your mobo as: Two traces with a distance of

Code:

d = 0.8 mm

between them, and with an area of the sides facing each other equal to (guesstimate)

Code:

A = 20 cm x 0.3 mm = 60 mm²

in demi water will present a resistance of

Code:

R = ρ.d/A = 180 kΩ/m/m² * 0.8 mm / 60 mm² = 1.8*10⁵ * 8*10⁻⁴ / 6*10⁻⁵ = 2.4*10⁶ = 2.4 MΩ

Now, THAT is impressive to me.

[niemivh]

I will keep my mining rigs running no matter what.  I'll completely cover the electricity costs if needed (provided I have a job to pay) at full loss.
So, there is no cost problem for me personally such as pointed out by the OP.    

We must do something to change/replace this central bank monetary system that is destroying the western world.  If bitcoin fails, then something similar but better must be created to replace it.  Bitcoin may not be the best possible thing, but please tell me a better avenue available.  Bitcoin is way more important than any monetary benefit, at least to me anyway.

What exactly is destroying the Western world regarding it's banking system?  I want specifics. 

[niemivh]

Seeing as nobody is actually refuting my point, which is that Moore's Law and the difficulty of the block chain have an intersect point, past which the amount of people mining will radically decrease - unless: either BTC prices rise or 'traffic' increases on the network due to more actual economic activity.  That is the postulate I've presented and yet 90% of the people posting on this thread don't seem to realize that, even though it was in the original post.

Is it that the reading comprehension level on average is very bad or that the "cult-of-bitcoin" makes you unable to see any logical arguments that may threaten Bitcoin?  If you act without regard to reality it doesn't hurt reality, it only hurts yourself.

I made this prediction when it was well above $13, now it is past $10.

When it hits $5 will you admit that I was right or...?

How about $3?

Both those prices are soon to arrive, I hope that Bitcoin can survive somehow, but it's not helping for so many of you not to admit that these problems exist.

[teflone]

mining shall not be profitable!

it should run at 0-cost and 0-profit.

just earning enough to keep your rig going.

when mining is profitable(the price goes up or the difficulty goes down), more miners will come and make mining unprofitable.
when mining is unprofitable(the price goes down or the difficulty goes up), miners will leave and make mining profitable.

its simple supply and demand.

stop crying about it.

Your an idiot, that is all..

[kokjo]

mining shall not be profitable!

it should run at 0-cost and 0-profit.

just earning enough to keep your rig going.

when mining is profitable(the price goes up or the difficulty goes down), more miners will come and make mining unprofitable.
when mining is unprofitable(the price goes down or the difficulty goes up), miners will leave and make mining profitable.

its simple supply and demand.

stop crying about it.

Your an idiot, that is all..

no you are. if you refuses to see the power of the market you are dumb.

[ptshamrock]

I will keep my mining rigs running no matter what.  I'll completely cover the electricity costs if needed (provided I have a job to pay) at full loss.
So, there is no cost problem for me personally such as pointed out by the OP.    

We must do something to change/replace this central bank monetary system that is destroying the western world.  If bitcoin fails, then something similar but better must be created to replace it.  Bitcoin may not be the best possible thing, but please tell me a better avenue available.  Bitcoin is way more important than any monetary benefit, at least to me anyway.

+1

[wndrbr3d]

As long as prices stay above $3.50/BTC and keep pace % wise with difficulty, people should be able to turn a profit with GPU mining (depending on power costs/consumptions).

So barring prices not keeping up with the next couple difficulty increases... or the price dropping substantially, mining will continue to be profitable.