How will the next big recession affect the BTC price?

[pooya87]

Everyone has the same logic. If dollar goes down and the devalued then bitcoin will be higher. However, they are all missing out on the point of what economic recession does to a population. If you do not have any means to survive and have a life or live paycheck to paycheck I can promise you that you will not be looking at your bitcoin wallet and think how rich you are and just be happy with it, you will sell it to give yourself a break.

it is interesting to see how many people think this way!
but that's not how it works. in an economic recession when your fiat is tanking and losing its value, you desperately look for "ways" of storing your value so that your purchasing power doesn't suddenly evaporate.

how about when everything is losing value? that's usually what happens in a financial crisis / major recession. the entire economy contracts. it's not just fiat tanking in a recession.

in fact, fiat will often perform better than many assets during recessions, barring a hyperinflation scenario. the USD actually bottomed very quickly in early 2008 (before the collapse of bear stearns) and never went back to those lows ever again. gold dumped most of that year. the real estate and stock markets were hit much harder.

anything is possible, but on average, everything will lose value and the highest risk assets will lose the most value. bitcoin is a very high risk investment from any conventional investment perspective, so i'd expect BTC to fall with the rest of the market.

i have serious doubts that we're entering a major recession yet though.

during a recession life still goes on and because of that there will be businesses that will still thrive. for instance during the 2008 recession thrift stores saw a whopping increase in customers as big as 30%. there were stocks that also did well [1][2]. so i wouldn't say "everything" falls.

if you look at bitcoin only as a high risk asset then it makes sense for it to drop too. but if you look at it as a global store of value that is secure and easy to store and also the fact that historically bitcoin has had its own independent cycles that are not affected by things such as Stock Market Crashes then it doesn't make sense to say it will drop.

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0810/6-companies-thriving-in-the-recession.aspx
[2] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4077422-industries-grew-08-recession-surprisingly-well-now

[1714954080]

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[1714954080]

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[Marcel666]

I don't know the chances of a recession coming upon us anytime soon, but such a financial crisis would be generally bad news for all currencies, even crypto currencies.
It might also expose the frailty of centralized currencies and may trigger a switch to bitcoin. And a little FOMO could spark a price pump.

[figmentofmyass]

Bitcoin didn't exist in 2008 so we don't know how it would perform on such an scenario. My theory is that it's way better than gold for most people with a decent amount of technical competence to get it done.

it certainly might be, but it doesn't really matter what you or i think. if we're comparing bitcoin to gold or expecting it to be a real world hedge asset, what matters is what conventional investors, investments banks and central banks think. in those terms, it seems premature to put bitcoin alongside gold. i don't think bitcoin has "crossed the chasm" so to speak.

If you think that gold/Bitcoin will lose value "after the crisis is over" then I assume you think these cyclical crisis in the fiat world can be happening infinitely.

i reckon it can. it's likely to outlive us, based on the history of money.