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Question: How will the next big recession affect the BTC price?
BTC will go up - 15 (57.7%)
BTC will go down - 7 (26.9%)
BTC will be largely unaffected - 4 (15.4%)
Total Voters: 26

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Author Topic: How will the next big recession affect the BTC price?  (Read 548 times)
theymos
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October 24, 2018, 05:29:27 PM
 #1

US and global markets are looking shaky. Probably things will recover in the short-term, but a long-lasting global recession doesn't seem far off. There are good reasons to think that it might be even worse than the "great recession", though you never know. How will this affect the BTC price?

On one hand, a lot of people might want to sell their BTC and move back to traditional investments while they're low, especially if they got into BTC in the first place as a way of getting better return-on-investment vs already-peaked traditional investments. On the other hand, people might lose faith in the fiat economy entirely, especially those who have already taken the step of buying BTC.

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October 24, 2018, 05:37:04 PM
Merited by theymos_away (2)
 #2

I think it will be largely unaffected. I don't think people who are in Bitcoin would move from Bitcoin to the stock market just because the stock market is low after a crash, because no matter how long the stock market crashes its upside is tiny compared to the next bitcoin bull run. Anyone invested in Bitcoin knows this. Fact is a bull run will likely be taking place at the same time the stock market tanks, so if anything it would make sense for people to move from stocks to bitcoin, and then perhaps in 2020 when the bull run is close to peaking sell bitcoin before the crash and buy back stocks low. So far Bitcoin has seen no significant correlation with stocks and the economy, it booms and busts according to its own cycle and events directly affecting the crypto space.

People pile on during bull runs, no matter the market. So people will not be leaving a bitcoin bull run to enter a bear stock market.
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October 24, 2018, 05:41:21 PM
Merited by theymos_away (2)
 #3

a long-lasting global recession doesn't seem far off.
Really?  We just got done recovering from the 2008-09 disaster, which to me doesn't seem that long ago.  I'll admit that I don't exactly have my finger on the pulse of the global economy, but what signs are pointing to another recession?  The stock market has been due for a correction, and a lot of stocks have dropped quite a bit lately, but that's ultimately healthy for the market.  Stocks have been booming ever since 2009 and there hasn't been much in the way of a crash or correction.

The question of what happens with bitcoin if a "great recession" happens is an interesting one, since it hasn't been tested yet.  I have a feeling that if a global meltdown occurs and mass unemployment is a component of that, people are going to sell bitcoin en masse and the price will probably fall significantly--and all of the altcoins that people are now hoping to get rich on today?  They're going to fare even worse.

I don't see bitcoin as a safe-haven asset like gold or silver.  It's way too volatile for investors looking to preserve the value of their money when markets go haywire, and if we do get an economic disaster a-knockin' at our door my bet is that metals will start rising again.

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October 24, 2018, 05:47:27 PM
Merited by theymos_away (2)
 #4

I am looking at the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and the SP 500 charts and it looks like we might of hit a failed high this year and might be going down, however unless we break the lows that formed in Feb 2018, then we can't jump to the conclusion of a recession just yet.

If you ever follow the big media giants like CNBC or Bloomberg, basically whenever the Dow Jones goes down around 500 points or so, people are pointing at another recession. They were even saying this in 2010-2011 or so and everybody was expecting a double dip recession, however it never happened. And the years following it was the same story. All the bears were waiting for a recession but its been almost 10 years and still hasn't happened.

Regarding the BTC price its very difficult to say. Is BTC considered a safe haven like Gold? If so then its very bullish. However you need to realize that BTC isn't exactly risk-off investment like Gold, its very volatile and holding BTC might be prone to higher swings in price than a global recession.

However since BTC wasn't around when the last recession hit, its very difficult to say.

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October 24, 2018, 05:56:17 PM
Merited by theymos_away (4)
 #5

a long-lasting global recession doesn't seem far off.
Really?  We just got done recovering from the 2008-09 disaster, which to me doesn't seem that long ago.  I'll admit that I don't exactly have my finger on the pulse of the global economy, but what signs are pointing to another recession?  The stock market has been due for a correction, and a lot of stocks have dropped quite a bit lately, but that's ultimately healthy for the market.  Stocks have been booming ever since 2009 and there hasn't been much in the way of a crash or correction.

The question of what happens with bitcoin if a "great recession" happens is an interesting one, since it hasn't been tested yet.  I have a feeling that if a global meltdown occurs and mass unemployment is a component of that, people are going to sell bitcoin en masse and the price will probably fall significantly--and all of the altcoins that people are now hoping to get rich on today?  They're going to fare even worse.

I don't see bitcoin as a safe-haven asset like gold or silver.  It's way too volatile for investors looking to preserve the value of their money when markets go haywire, and if we do get an economic disaster a-knockin' at our door my bet is that metals will start rising again.

Most people are predicting a stock market crash soon. Stocks are HIGHLY overvalued right now. The stock market is nearly as overvalued right now as it was when dotcom burst (in stock vs gdp charts). Also, while it may seems like the great recession was not that long ago, recession happen regularly. This is actually the longest period of nonstop economic growth the US has ever had, so yes the US at least is very due for a recession. Add to that for the past two years since Trump took over the US has vastly expanded how much money its borrowing which is likely propping up the economy right now, with annual deficits about to hit a trillion dollars in the US to prop up the economy its only a matter of time before it crashes down, especially when you've got Trump's trade wars playing havoc with industries and global trade. Also they recently removed the regulations put in place to try to prevent the things that caused the last recession in the first place, so there's that too.

The recession will very likely be bad because the US has expanded our annual deficits so much under Trump that we're gonna already be close to what we were spending to dig ourselves out of the great recession before the next one even hits, which pretty much spells disaster for the economy, and when the US economy sinks the global economy sinks for the most part. So stocks are ready to bust and the economy is riding high on borrowed money alone. Most analysts expect a stock crash and recession in the next two years, which should line up perfectly with the next bitcoin bull run.
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October 24, 2018, 06:37:07 PM
 #6

In that case if the stock market crash in the near future why the investors look for another alternative to invest which is most likely the crypto currencies for now right.

I think that the next recession will cause the prices to move much further to new all time high which maybe enough to hit $100K in couple of years .Not a good price predictor just expressed my opinion. Smiley

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October 24, 2018, 06:41:47 PM
Last edit: October 24, 2018, 06:53:27 PM by RamonBTC
 #7

I’m afraid that when it comes to predictions I always throw emotion-related answers. Why wouldn’t I, I’m an optimistic or worse a fanatical person who values my own trust than databases.

I'm no stock marketers and have no involvement whatsoever, and doesn't plan to do it in the future. Voted that bitcoin will go up and might soon enter a bullish market as it will always be after any scenario of a downtrend.

The stock market is manipulated and it sucks.
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October 24, 2018, 07:36:51 PM
Last edit: October 24, 2018, 07:56:54 PM by WinslowIII
Merited by theymos (2)
 #8

a long-lasting global recession doesn't seem far off.
Really?  We just got done recovering from the 2008-09 disaster, which to me doesn't seem that long ago.  I'll admit that I don't exactly have my finger on the pulse of the global economy, but what signs are pointing to another recession?  The stock market has been due for a correction, and a lot of stocks have dropped quite a bit lately, but that's ultimately healthy for the market.  Stocks have been booming ever since 2009 and there hasn't been much in the way of a crash or correction.

The question of what happens with bitcoin if a "great recession" happens is an interesting one, since it hasn't been tested yet.  I have a feeling that if a global meltdown occurs and mass unemployment is a component of that, people are going to sell bitcoin en masse and the price will probably fall significantly--and all of the altcoins that people are now hoping to get rich on today?  They're going to fare even worse.

I don't see bitcoin as a safe-haven asset like gold or silver.  It's way too volatile for investors looking to preserve the value of their money when markets go haywire, and if we do get an economic disaster a-knockin' at our door my bet is that metals will start rising again.

What do you mean we just got done recovering from the 2008 disaster? do you actually believe that doubling the US debt from 10 to 20 trillion in 10 years, creating trillions of dollars out of thin air to pump the stock markets and delay a deflation/depression is a recovery? Do you think that quantitive easing was some sort of actual solution to the US economic problems?  The only thing that has happened since 2008 is an unbelievably costly 10 year delay that has actually made the long term situation far worse. Unfixable, actually.

In my opinion the cats out of the bag, anybody and everybody saw what a bitcoin pump can do, whereas before most were either clueless or too skeptical. When the next pump occurs far more people will be joining in so the sky's the limit how high it could go. Combined with stock market and real estate collapsing values, it could very well make Mcafee's prediction of half a million per btc come true.
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October 24, 2018, 08:04:55 PM
 #9

On one hand, a lot of people might want to sell their BTC and move back to traditional investments while they're low, especially if they got into BTC in the first place as a way of getting better return-on-investment vs already-peaked traditional investments.
This is really a big possibility, if the recession really hits us hard we will see traditional assets such as real-estate and stocks decline in value and it will be tempting to people especially the whales in the community to start taking advantage of the cheaper prices. Owning a piece of land at a cheaper price would be a great investment to anyone after we see the market starts to recover. The downside to this is we will see whales cashing out big from the cryptocurrency market thus affecting the prices negatively overall. For me this could just be a short-term problem as people coming from the traditional investments might do the same to the cryptocurrency market, and if they see these cryptos having an attractive price they might also buy and hold them until they can profit from it in the future.

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October 24, 2018, 08:22:27 PM
Merited by theymos (5)
 #10

a long-lasting global recession doesn't seem far off.
Really?  We just got done recovering from the 2008-09 disaster, which to me doesn't seem that long ago.  I'll admit that I don't exactly have my finger on the pulse of the global economy, but what signs are pointing to another recession?  The stock market has been due for a correction, and a lot of stocks have dropped quite a bit lately, but that's ultimately healthy for the market.  Stocks have been booming ever since 2009 and there hasn't been much in the way of a crash or correction.

The question of what happens with bitcoin if a "great recession" happens is an interesting one, since it hasn't been tested yet.  I have a feeling that if a global meltdown occurs and mass unemployment is a component of that, people are going to sell bitcoin en masse and the price will probably fall significantly--and all of the altcoins that people are now hoping to get rich on today?  They're going to fare even worse.

I don't see bitcoin as a safe-haven asset like gold or silver.  It's way too volatile for investors looking to preserve the value of their money when markets go haywire, and if we do get an economic disaster a-knockin' at our door my bet is that metals will start rising again.

I would probably mostly agree with Pharmacist here. I did do a little bit of research to try to determine the narrative that is calling for a global recession. My references are at the bottom, but the narrative ranges from fears of any global tightening (aka rising interest rates) putting too much pressure on the global 247 trillion dollar debt burden, which includes massive consumer debt (1).

CNBC warns of global growth slowing combined with trade tensions putting a strain on the global economy, citing in particular the latest trade deals and negotiations by the US. (2)

Washington Post addresses the lack of real change in the banking space after the last mortgage meltdown in the US, combined with increasing deregulation, increasing risk of large-scale cyber attacks, and a lack of good crisis-management systems. (3)

Highly cited Economist article warns that although the US had a good year in 2017 and so far a good year in 2018, which has had a ripple effect across the global economy, if growth slows as the US implements tightening (increase in interest rates), that could start a global downturn, especially in combination with the trade deals Trump has completed and is currently negotiating. (4)

So in essence, the narrative is that the "good times can't last", and I believe it is coupled with (or perhaps based on) fear about what Trump will do next (5), especially if the midterms go to the Republicans and he has the next two years with a favorable Congress and a conservative Supreme Court. Whatever you believe about the US, whether you like it or not, at the moment, the US does have a big impact on the global economy, so really, your belief about if a global recession is coming has quite a bit to do with whether you think the US (or Trump, if you rather) is moving in a direction that will help or hurt the economy.

To wind up, I couldn't really tell you which way I think the Bitcoin market would go if we experienced a global recession. I think this new generation probably doesn't place as much stock in gold and silver as previous generations, and perhaps may feel like crypto is their "recession savior" (as sort of a anti-establishment move). On the other hand, I could also see people saying, "so THIS is why grandpa always told me to buy gold and silver".

So I voted "largely unaffected" as my statement of indecision. Wink


(1) https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1021696/global-recession-financial-crash-economic-crisis-great-depression
(2) https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/02/global-recession-risk-has-significantly-increased-strategist-warns.html
(3) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/218/10/09/recession/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.133bbcb5cd79
(4) https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/10/11/the-next-recession (alternative summary for those without access to the economist): https://www.marketplace.org/2018/10/19/world/economist-warns-coming-recession-its-world-economy-report
(5) https://www.afr.com/markets/markets-could-trigger-the-next-global-recession-pimco-20181016-h16owx
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October 24, 2018, 08:49:09 PM
 #11

a long-lasting global recession doesn't seem far off.
Really?  We just got done recovering from the 2008-09 disaster, which to me doesn't seem that long ago.  I'll admit that I don't exactly have my finger on the pulse of the global economy, but what signs are pointing to another recession?  The stock market has been due for a correction, and a lot of stocks have dropped quite a bit lately, but that's ultimately healthy for the market.  Stocks have been booming ever since 2009 and there hasn't been much in the way of a crash or correction.

The question of what happens with bitcoin if a "great recession" happens is an interesting one, since it hasn't been tested yet.  I have a feeling that if a global meltdown occurs and mass unemployment is a component of that, people are going to sell bitcoin en masse and the price will probably fall significantly--and all of the altcoins that people are now hoping to get rich on today?  They're going to fare even worse.

I don't see bitcoin as a safe-haven asset like gold or silver.  It's way too volatile for investors looking to preserve the value of their money when markets go haywire, and if we do get an economic disaster a-knockin' at our door my bet is that metals will start rising again.

I would probably mostly agree with Pharmacist here. I did do a little bit of research to try to determine the narrative that is calling for a global recession. My references are at the bottom, but the narrative ranges from fears of any global tightening (aka rising interest rates) putting too much pressure on the global 247 trillion dollar debt burden, which includes massive consumer debt (1).

CNBC warns of global growth slowing combined with trade tensions putting a strain on the global economy, citing in particular the latest trade deals and negotiations by the US. (2)

Washington Post addresses the lack of real change in the banking space after the last mortgage meltdown in the US, combined with increasing deregulation, increasing risk of large-scale cyber attacks, and a lack of good crisis-management systems. (3)

Highly cited Economist article warns that although the US had a good year in 2017 and so far a good year in 2018, which has had a ripple effect across the global economy, if growth slows as the US implements tightening (increase in interest rates), that could start a global downturn, especially in combination with the trade deals Trump has completed and is currently negotiating. (4)

So in essence, the narrative is that the "good times can't last", and I believe it is coupled with (or perhaps based on) fear about what Trump will do next (5), especially if the midterms go to the Republicans and he has the next two years with a favorable Congress and a conservative Supreme Court. Whatever you believe about the US, whether you like it or not, at the moment, the US does have a big impact on the global economy, so really, your belief about if a global recession is coming has quite a bit to do with whether you think the US (or Trump, if you rather) is moving in a direction that will help or hurt the economy.

To wind up, I couldn't really tell you which way I think the Bitcoin market would go if we experienced a global recession. I think this new generation probably doesn't place as much stock in gold and silver as previous generations, and perhaps may feel like crypto is their "recession savior" (as sort of a anti-establishment move). On the other hand, I could also see people saying, "so THIS is why grandpa always told me to buy gold and silver".

So I voted "largely unaffected" as my statement of indecision. Wink


(1) https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1021696/global-recession-financial-crash-economic-crisis-great-depression
(2) https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/02/global-recession-risk-has-significantly-increased-strategist-warns.html
(3) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/218/10/09/recession/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.133bbcb5cd79
(4) https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/10/11/the-next-recession (alternative summary for those without access to the economist): https://www.marketplace.org/2018/10/19/world/economist-warns-coming-recession-its-world-economy-report
(5) https://www.afr.com/markets/markets-could-trigger-the-next-global-recession-pimco-20181016-h16owx


I agree with the largely unaffected. Bitcoin moves by the beat of its own drum. I think the type of people that would sell Bitcoin in the middle of an exponential bull run to buy in when the stock market crashes are the type of people that won't have bitcoin in the first place. Also since most bitcoin owners are young, i think they'd be much more willing to change their circumstances if they get hit by losing their job in a recession as compared to someone older who has a family and a house and stuff and can't make changes so easily, than sell what they are probably expecting will be a huge windfall for them in the years to come.

There is a reason why people are saying the good times can't last. In the US we were expanding at a moderate pace and steadily until 2016, with deficits falling for the most part drastically from the high enormous deficits of the great recession. Under Trump we have an overheated economy and stock market built up on tax cuts, deregulation, and massive expansion of the money we're borrowing the past two years. The good times can't last because is based on a house of cards and nearly  a trillion dollars of borrowed money annually, while allowing banks and corporations free reign to in light of the deregulation. Before 2017 the US had a good strategy of moderate and steady continuous growth with regulations in place to keep things from going crazy, then Trump and Republicans came to pull out all the stops to get the short term gains and sacrifice the viability of the economy. Down we will go. They key right now is if you have stocks, sells them and buy bitcoin at the bottom right now. In a couple years when Bitcoin peaks again sell Bitcoin and buy back the stock market for a year while Bitcoin crashes and stocks are heading back up following the stock crash. Then when bitcoin hits the next bottom sell stocks again and buy back for the next bitcoin run.
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October 24, 2018, 09:17:32 PM
 #12

US and global markets are looking shaky. Probably things will recover in the short-term, but a long-lasting global recession doesn't seem far off. There are good reasons to think that it might be even worse than the "great recession", though you never know. How will this affect the BTC price?

On one hand, a lot of people might want to sell their BTC and move back to traditional investments while they're low, especially if they got into BTC in the first place as a way of getting better return-on-investment vs already-peaked traditional investments. On the other hand, people might lose faith in the fiat economy entirely, especially those who have already taken the step of buying BTC.

I think there's still a big chasm between BTC and "safe haven" for most people. As a result, in a major economic contraction, it's hard to see why BTC would benefit. Recession is a time for investors and businesses to de-risk and unwind speculative positions. It's a time to think about capital preservation. It's not the time to pour capital into speculative markets.

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October 24, 2018, 09:18:20 PM
Merited by theymos (2)
 #13

The financial crisis was described at the time as a once-in-a-lifetime event by many economists. I believe they are likely correct considering that global financial crisis have occurred less than once per generation in the past.

The current economic cycle is at the point in which some kind of recession is likely in the future however it has been at that point for some time now.

The “wrench” in the economic equation is the buying up massive amounts of government debt as a way to lower long term interest rates. We don’t know how the unwinding of this stimulus will affect the economy or if this will be used in future recessions successfully.


In regards to how the price of bitcoin will be affected by a global recession, this depends on a number of things.

There is decent evidence that last years run up in price was largely driven by hedge funds and similar institutions, and many of these funds still have large holdings today. If these funds are facing withdrawal requests, they may sell some of their coins to pay these withdrawals. If there is a deep economic recession, many hedge funds will likely face a lot of withdrawal requests— this is actually what caused Madeoff (or however you spell his name) was exposed, he was facing more withdrawal requests than he could handle because everyone was selling nearly every financial asset.

If the recession is more mild, investors may go to crypto as a hedge against inflation that is risked when interest rates are lowered to combat the recession and spur economic growth. Citizens of countries whose economies are not based on dollars may also flock to bitcoin to prevent being affected by a deviation of their local currency.

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October 24, 2018, 10:08:39 PM
 #14

If a real meltdown occurs bitcoin will get hammered. You do not hang on to your extreme speculative bet when everything else is going up in smoke. It's had the good fortune to come to life during a not too far off unbroken rise in everything. It will get tested at some point and the sooner that happens the shakier it'll be.

Lots of people love to pose about how theyre 'outside' the system yet sell like fuck the moment a badly translated lie about south Korean exchanges, which no non Korean can access anyway,  appears. Ramp that up to some real sweat and the majority will fold.

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October 24, 2018, 10:17:11 PM
 #15

in fact all of this was triggered by the global economic crisis, it is possible for some people to withdraw their investment from BTC for one reason
"BITCOIN does not show good potential throughout 2018"
while on the other hand traditional investment markets provide hope with a chaotic market so it is possible for them to play the money there
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October 24, 2018, 10:59:30 PM
 #16

Today in the stock market was another blood bath type of day. AMD basically lost 32% in the intraday due to less than favourable earnings. Dow Jones down 500 points on the day. And looking at BTC it changed by 0.14% in the last 24 hours. So basically it looks like the situation now is completely reversed.

Bitcoin was the volatile asset which had 20% green and red days and was considered highly volatile and risky. While the stock market moved mostly flat. So people decided to stop trading stocks and go trade cryptos because traders love volatility and now its completely the other way around. People will stop trading Bitcoin because it doesn't move and instead go and trade Stocks.

Instead of gambling on Bitmex using 100x leverage they will gamble with FD stock options.

Should be interesting times coming up.

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October 24, 2018, 11:26:35 PM
 #17

in fact all of this was triggered by the global economic crisis, it is possible for some people to withdraw their investment from BTC for one reason
"BITCOIN does not show good potential throughout 2018"
while on the other hand traditional investment markets provide hope with a chaotic market so it is possible for them to play the money there
That would be a great possibility for bitcoin to initiate during these big recession. We cannot stop what has to be done in the next coming days. It could be tommorow or even next year, because nobody cannot expect it to happen quickly. Long term process is need in order to make it a reality for all of us. Even though the scenario doesn't show positive trends at all, it doesn't mean we're giving but instead we should strive to survive.
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October 24, 2018, 11:38:12 PM
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 #18

Im optimist for bitcoin performing well on the next 2008 chapter. It is a global asset that never sleeps, and you can move it across borders seamlessly may your country go full Cyprus on your wealth.

Literally no other asset has these 2 features. Everything else is tied to something non-neutral (stocks and co are tied to the performance of certain countries, property is stuck where it is, gold will be confiscated on every border...). Of course, none of the altcoins cut it, they have no liquidity and are unsafe from a technical pov.
There is not much else out there, if you think there is then let me know.

Im already worried at EU. I think a lot of people are sleeping on the up and coming clusterfuck in Italy. This is my favorite video this week thus far: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erSSC85CME4

Italy isn't Greece. If Salvini is not bluffing then an huge crisis will begin in EU and this will spread across the world. I would be scared to have my money anywhere but in BTC these days. Cyprus on steroids doesn't sound good.

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October 25, 2018, 04:19:42 AM
 #19

If a real meltdown occurs bitcoin will get hammered. You do not hang on to your extreme speculative bet when everything else is going up in smoke. It's had the good fortune to come to life during a not too far off unbroken rise in everything. It will get tested at some point and the sooner that happens the shakier it'll be.

Lots of people love to pose about how theyre 'outside' the system yet sell like fuck the moment a badly translated lie about south Korean exchanges, which no non Korean can access anyway,  appears. Ramp that up to some real sweat and the majority will fold.

Bitcoin isn't just some extreme speculative bet. It was created in response to the 2007 economic crisis with an answer to where things were headed. In the 9 short years since, global debt has skyrocketed - US debt has doubled ffs. If you think bitcoin is going to sink with all conventional assets then you don't understand it - you are just here for the speculation.
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October 25, 2018, 04:42:52 AM
 #20

On one hand, a lot of people might want to sell their BTC and move back to traditional investments while they're low, especially if they got into BTC in the first place as a way of getting better return-on-investment vs already-peaked traditional investments. On the other hand, people might lose faith in the fiat economy entirely, especially those who have already taken the step of buying BTC.

i guess it depends on WHEN the recession is going to occur.
as we move forward, bitcoin stops being a highly volatile and speculative asset that swings wildly while being hard to predict; and it becomes a more solid asset with a better price that doesn't have the wild swings up and down.
this means more investors will include bitcoin in their portfolio. it doesn't have to be all-in bitcoin, just having a part of their investment in bitcoin can mean a rise.

right now if a recession happens, in my opinion, bitcoin would either be large unaffected or would have a small rise. but in near future in case of a recession i believe there will be a large bitcoin price rise as more people would convert their money to bitcoin as "store of value".

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