[2018-04-10]Bear Market 'Largely Over,' Crypto Hedge Fund Manager Claims

[Reatim]

Bear Market 'Largely Over,' Crypto Hedge Fund Manager Claims

Timothy Enneking, managing director of Crypto Asset Managment, LP, said Monday that the winter in cryptocurrency markets is "largely over."

Crypto Asset Management, which was founded last year and has roughly $20 million in assets under management, saw its CAMCrypto30 cryptocurrency index fall by 69 percent since its high in January. Enneking sees four reasons for the collapse.

Asset consolidation, regulatory concerns, massive liquidation by the Mt. Gox trustee and startups' selling crypto assets to pay salaries and expenses are all factors in the market's overall decline, he wrote.

"Consolidation after the amazing 2017 increase" drew back some of the funds invested in cryptocurrencies, he said.

Invsestors are also likely wary due to recent regulatory actions. While he did not cite any specific events, the report comes just weeks after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission subpoenaed startups with initial coin offerings.

It remains unclear what exactly the SEC is looking for, though an official confirmed "dozens" of investigations were underway.

The other two reasons likely had less of an impact, Enneking said.

These factors have mostly been priced into the cryptocurrency market, which, despite the recent rout, is still up by over 600 percent in the last 15 months.

Enneking also noted that bitcoin's share of the overall cryptocurrency market has fallen from 45.7 percent on Dec. 20 to 44.3 percent. This decline in "BTC dominance" has coincided with a decline in correlation between bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, he wrote.

While the note does not comment on what declining correlation means, it could indicate that the quality of individual cryptocurrencies is beginning to have a greater influence on their market prices.

The combination of these factors indicate that the market should begin rebounding soon, he indicated in his report.

https://www.coindesk.com/bear-market-largely-over-crypto-hedge-fund-manager-claims/

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[FrueGreads]

I would really like to believe that, but I'm not so sure that will be the case. Right now I think there is only one thing that could change the current market trend, and that is the institutional investors joining the markets. Everyone keeps claiming they will join during this year, and I think that's possible, but right now we are not seeing that. There is still a lot of sell pressure in bitcoin, and regulation is still not clear enough for institutional investors to join in. We all know that retail investors are easily influenced by fomo and fud, and since the fomo is gone, the only thing for them to do is sell.

Just to make things clear I'm a strong believer of bitcoin technology, and I'm holding my coins even though the price keeps falling. I also intend to make buys every time I can, but I think it's to soon to say that the "winter is gone". Anyway, winter means better opportunities to buy, so everything is fine.

[CryptoBry]

I am one of the many people here who are all hoping that this projection can be coming true soon. The market is still way down especially if we have to compare it to ATH in December. People who decided to HODL are all affected by the recent many red showdowns. The problem is that as soon as the market is recovering some grounds many hodlers can be encashing to take advantage of the possible gains and since there is that long wait many can be dumping...which in turn can mean that we can be back to where we started.

[1Referee]

There is still a lot of sell pressure in bitcoin, and regulation is still not clear enough for institutional investors to join in.

There is no selling pressure within current range $6000-$7000 range. Selling pressure is mainly manipulation by larger parties to continue buying up sub $7000 coins. If you look at the market without semi large dumps, there is no downward movement. Without these dumps, the market will climb up slowly, but it's being prevented from doing so, all to accumulate more coins before we're about to head up again.

This can no longer be seen by old hands actually cashing out - we're past that stage already. It's solely accumulation time.

I would say that without this manipulation, even the $8000 level might turn out to offer the same level of stability as current levels do. Old hands have cashed out enough coins at way higher levels already, the panic is largely over, people slowly gaining more confidence to start buying again, etc. I haven't felt this good about the market in quite a long period of time. Let's see what happens after April 17 this month.

[Xavofat]

I would consider people who have bought in over the last year or so to be newbies, since the bull market's ascent was so rapid and dramatic.

Many of those people (not all) have an unstable position in BTC and would be willing to sell if they started to panic.  Serious panic hasn't really set in yet, and some weak hands need shaking out.

This seems like wishful thinking from someone already involved in crypto.  I'd be surprised if the bear market took less than a year to end.

[kevoh]

I am one of the many people here who are all hoping that this projection can be coming true soon. The market is still way down especially if we have to compare it to ATH in December. People who decided to HODL are all affected by the recent many red showdowns. The problem is that as soon as the market is recovering some grounds many hodlers can be encashing to take advantage of the possible gains and since there is that long wait many can be dumping...which in turn can mean that we can be back to where we started.

In other words hitting that ATH in December will definitely not happen this year, probably mid 2019 or even 2020.

[gentlemand]

In other words hitting that ATH in December will definitely not happen this year, probably mid 2019 or even 2020.

I'm leaning towards late 2020 myself. Any time before that is of course fine with me.

I'm not really inclined to listen to someone who probably hasn't been in BTC for all that long. This guy appears to be largely relying on real world events, or rather the lack of bad ones, to turn the price around.

That's not really how it works as far as I can tell. If the price wants to decline there is no amount of positive developments in the world that'll stop it. It's going to do what it's fated to do.

[Diabolov]

I wonder why a crypto hedge fund manager would claim that. Surely he is unbiased and has nothing to gain from people thinking the crypto market is about to recover, being a crypto hedge fund manager and all.

[iram1011]

The selling pressure was also being piled up by crypto exchanges. Many exchanges had net income of more than $1 Billion in 2017. They kept their income in BTC and ETH and not USD. Now in order to meet the tax liabilities, they are selling their ETH and BTC holdings which has resulted in huge sell off by the exchanges. Tax-related selling has certainly added to the tough start of the year for Bitcoin. After April 17th which is the tax day, we can expect a recovery due to the end of huge sell off which is the major reason that created a bear trap.

[hatshepsut93]

I would consider people who have bought in over the last year or so to be newbies, since the bull market's ascent was so rapid and dramatic.

Many of those people (not all) have an unstable position in BTC and would be willing to sell if they started to panic.  Serious panic hasn't really set in yet, and some weak hands need shaking out.

This seems like wishful thinking from someone already involved in crypto.  I'd be surprised if the bear market took less than a year to end.

I think the panic period have passed already, since I really doubt that we'll see any major crashes anytime soon - most likely we have just entered a stagnation period, the price will be slowly declining to 5-6k for months. The previous bull run was very long, so now the market is pessimistic  and more careful. I just hope that the next bull run will be based on some strong fundamentals like Lightning Network, widespread adoption, new protocol features, instead of just speculation.

[cr1776]

In other words hitting that ATH in December will definitely not happen this year, probably mid 2019 or even 2020.

I'm leaning towards late 2020 myself. Any time before that is of course fine with me.

I'm not really inclined to listen to someone who probably hasn't been in BTC for all that long. This guy appears to be largely relying on real world events, or rather the lack of bad ones, to turn the price around.

That's not really how it works as far as I can tell. If the price wants to decline there is no amount of positive developments in the world that'll stop it. It's going to do what it's fated to do.

I don't think anyone knows.  ;-)   Late 2020 will be after the next halving and that will be of some assistance to decrease new supply.   Anyone who is concerned about the future, should own at least some bitcoin as a hedge at minimum. 

This guy may be right or now.  Ask me in 24 months. 

[gentlemand]

I don't think anyone knows.  ;-)   Late 2020 will be after the next halving and that will be of some assistance to decrease new supply. 

I think that's the only possible 'fundamental' that can be depended on, but of course a halving happening when no one gives a shit won't be much of an event. You are indeed right. We are all clueless.

[richardsNY]

Let's see what happens after April 17 this month.

That's what I am looking forward to as well. The end of the tax season has been a regularly returning subject of discussion in the last weeks, and while I'm not entirely jumping into the tax season to be the main thing to look forward to, it at least is an event that last year apparently resulted in an increase as well. I'm not entirely sure if it was pure coincidence or not, but it makes the 17th of this month a bit more of an interesting event. If the market happens to increase just before or after that day, we'll likely go through a short fomo cycle, but probably not enough to jump over the $10,000 level again. I think we need more time for the market to look up that high, because there isn't much difference here justifying anything above $10,000 for now....

[darkangel11]

I am one of the many people here who are all hoping that this projection can be coming true soon. The market is still way down especially if we have to compare it to ATH in December. People who decided to HODL are all affected by the recent many red showdowns. The problem is that as soon as the market is recovering some grounds many hodlers can be encashing to take advantage of the possible gains and since there is that long wait many can be dumping...which in turn can mean that we can be back to where we started.

There's still some space to move downwards, at the very least to form double bottom at 6000. I was predicting it a month ago, but it didn't happen, but there certainly is a huige battle between bears and bulls taking place as we speak. We are certainly near the point where the price will have to make a move. Sooner or later it will have to either break into the 9k again or down below 6k and I've read some very nicely made predictions for each of these two outcomes. It all depends on how you draw the lines, the curent chart can predict an upward or a downward movement.

I like how this manager leaves himself a safe place to retreat to if the shit hits the fan. "LARGELY over". And if we suddenly hit 6k again, he's going to say "oops, largely meant that we'll get to 9k in July"

[Dalkore]

The selling pressure was also being piled up by crypto exchanges. Many exchanges had net income of more than $1 Billion in 2017. They kept their income in BTC and ETH and not USD. Now in order to meet the tax liabilities, they are selling their ETH and BTC holdings which has resulted in huge sell off by the exchanges. Tax-related selling has certainly added to the tough start of the year for Bitcoin. After April 17th which is the tax day, we can expect a recovery due to the end of huge sell off which is the major reason that created a bear trap.

Now that is an interesting point on exchanges being part of the selling pressures for tax reasons.   I believe in the after-tax season recovery but I am going to ponder this some more.  I wonder.