Crash? What will be the reason?

[imrer]

I think we can all agree that if price goes up, there must be some corrections. That's healthy and it's happing all the time. I'd like to look at bigger ones where we can with some risk predict when it'll occur but we can't predict what caused it.

We had 2 big correction so far.
First was back in 2011 and it was because of hackers who compromised Mtgox bitcoins.
Second one was after Mtgox laggy trading engine which multiplied normal correction.

We have survived silk road, inputs.io and other bad news which would in past cause bitcoin price a lot of damage.

Now we are heading to the next one and I'd like to ask you what is your tip what kind of event bring us next bigger correction. Also you can predict the price when that happen and also price after crash.

My guess:

Price right before crash 590
Price after crash          160
Event: Mtgox closed

[balanghai]

It just crashed from $350 down to $300. Sorry but I think you're disappointed. I kind of think that you're waiting for that moment to take advantage and buy cheap. But it ain't happening easily.

[Gumbork]

I believe closing MtGox would crash the market for only for like 1 day... The real crash is when government announce that Bitcoin is illegal...

[mvidetto]

I believe closing MtGox would crash the market for only for like 1 day... The real crash is when government announce that Bitcoin is illegal...

And how would they enforce this?  The whole point of bitcoin is anonymity and protection of identification through addresses.  Why do you think it took them so long to find the owner of silk road?  And yeah silk road 2.0 is up now allegedly run by the same guy.  So good luck government banning bitcoin it would affect the price, but also bitcoin is a global currency.  One government outlawing it wouldn't crash the price imo.

[DeathAndTaxes]

MtGox at the time of the first crash was 90% of trade volume.
MtGox at the time of the second crash was 80% of trade volume.
MtGox today is <30% of trade volume.

A single exchange being closed isn't going to cause a 75% crash.

[BitChick]

MtGox at the time of the first crash was 90% of trade volume.
MtGox at the time of the second crash was 80% of trade volume.
MtGox today is <30% of trade volume.

A single exchange being closed isn't going to cause a 75% crash.

Thankfully!  I think in April we were much more dependent on MtGox.  Things have come a long way in the world of BTC.

[BitchicksHusband]

I believe closing MtGox would crash the market for only for like 1 day... The real crash is when government announce that Bitcoin is illegal...

Not gonna happen when their masters just all invested through Second Market.

[EnderHf]

From what I've read you can't just predict the prices before they crash but hey you never know

[mrhelpful]

You can force a crash by paying someone to DDOS attack Mt.Gox aka a grid lock. Similar how it happened awhile back.

If thats what your referring to...but I wouldnt try it.