UFC on FOX 29: Poirier vs Gaethje Info and Prediction Thread

[tokeweed]

Date: Saturday, April 14th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 19:30 LP.net / 12:30pm PST / 3:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 22:00 LP.net / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 00:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.fìrstrow.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Dustin Poirier (22-5) vs. Justin Gaethje (18-1) (Lightweight)
Carlos Condit (30-11) vs. Alex Oliveira (17-5-1) (Welterweight)
Marvin Vettori (12-3-1) vs. Israel Adesanya (12-0) (Middleweight)
Michelle Waterson (14-6) vs. Cortney Casey (7-5) (Women's Strawweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Tim Boetsch (21-11) vs. Antonio Carlos Junior (9-2) (Middleweight)
Muslim Salikhov (13-2) vs. Ricky Rainey (13-4) (Welterweight)
Wilson Reis (22-8) vs. John Moraga (18-6) (Flyweight)
Krzysztof Jotko (19-3) vs. Brad Tavares (16-4) (Middleweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Gilbert Burns (12-2) vs. Dan Moret (13-3) (Welterweight)
Shana Dobson (3-1) vs. Lauren Mueller (4-0) (Women's Flyweight)
Dhiego Lima (12-6) vs. Yushin Okami (34-11) (Welterweight)
Arjan Bhullar (7-0) vs. Adam Wieczorek (9-1) (Heavyweight)
Matthew Lopez (10-2) vs. Alejandro Perez (19-6-1) (Bantamweight)
Luke Sanders (11-2) vs. Patrick Williams (8-5) (Bantamweight)

Other

- Abdul Razak Alhassan was scheduled to face Muslim Salikhov at the event. However, Alhassan was removed from the event citing an injury, and was replaced by promotional newcomer Ricky Rainey on March 31.

- A welterweight bout between former WEC Welterweight Champion and interim UFC Welterweight Champion Carlos Condit and Matt Brown was supposed take place as the co-headliner. However on April 2, Brown pulled out of the fight due to a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Alex Oliveira replaced Brown on April 4.

Thanks to the Puertorican for letting me use this content.

[nydiacaskey01]

I see only 2 interesting fights
Carlos Condit (30-11) vs. Alex Oliveira (17-5-1) (Welterweight)
Tim Boetsch (21-11) vs. Antonio Carlos Junior (9-2) (Middleweight)
I highlighted my pick. Others may give their best to give the viewers a good show but lately UFC is not booking those big names for an event. Is it because they are running out of good fighters or they just want to save the best for last 3 months of the year where they book great fighters and great fight card.

[Jating]

I see only 2 interesting fights
Carlos Condit (30-11) vs. Alex Oliveira (17-5-1) (Welterweight)
Tim Boetsch (21-11) vs. Antonio Carlos Junior (9-2) (Middleweight)
I highlighted my pick. Others may give their best to give the viewers a good show but lately UFC is not booking those big names for an event. Is it because they are running out of good fighters or they just want to save the best for last 3 months of the year where they book great fighters and great fight card.

I agree with your pick mate. It looks like the card is not that stack up but I would also go with Dustin here. I like to watch his fight as specially against Pettis which is a thriller, they battle for almost three rounds as neither fighter doesn't want to give an edge. It was bloody as hell. Unfortunately, Pettis tap out.

As for Carlos Condit, it looks like after the injury he suffers, he is not the same man, and he is on a 3 fight losing streak. I was expecting him to win against Neil Magny, but the long lay-offs may have affected his losing performance.

Let's see how Tim Boetsch has ride his momentum after defeating the former champion Jhonny Hendricks. Júnior is also riding a 4 fight winning streak so its gonna be interesting fight to see as well.

[eaLiTy]

• Dustin Poirier against Justin Gaethje is an interesting fight and it will be an interesting one and a fight of the night caliber fight and all of the fights Justin Gaethje is involved are thrilling ones and he earned his bonus and i think this is an important fight in this division and the winner could potentially face Khabib as Tony is injured and will be sitting out for a while and not sure about Conor returning anytime soon.

• Another top Prospect is Israel Adesanya, he is a really talented fighter and is creative and looks like Jon Jones and a potential title holder in the Middleweight division.

• My next bet would be Muslim Salikhov.

[bbc.reporter]

@Jating. But as mentioned here, on April 2, Brown pulled out of the fight due to a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Alex Oliveira replaced Brown on April 4. That is only 10 days to prepare versus one of the best welterweights in UFC history.

@eaLiTy. The main event will be a battle of 2 conflicting styles. Dustin, the technical fighter, versus Justin, the brawler.

Also, I reckon the winner will wistfully have to wait until 2019 to get a chance for the belt. Dana has to make up for the failed Tony versus Khabib megafight and must make Conor versus Khabib happen first hehehe. In Russia.

[tokeweed]

I got my money on Gaethje at 2.08 and Condit at 2.82.  The latter seems like it's value at that line as Oliveria has issues with gassing other than fighting on short notice.

Anyway enjoy the vid below.  This main event is actually a lot better than UFC 223.  Lol.

UFC on FOX 29:  Road to the Octagon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0Myi_EAptU

[tokeweed]

I'm really curious why Condit's line is at 2.85.  I mean Oliveira is coming off a loss, fighting on short notice and he isn't really one of the best fighters.

Here are the weigh ins.  Enjoy. 

UFC on FOX 29:  Weigh Ins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgCWaUD-vYU

Dustin Poirier (156) vs. Justin Gaethje (156)
Carlos Condit (171) vs. Alex Oliveira (171)
Israel Adesanya (184) vs. Marvin Vettori (186)
Michelle Waterson (115) vs. Cortney Casey (115)
Tim Boetsch (185) vs. Antonio Carlos Junior (185)
Muslim Salikhov (171) vs. Ricky Rainey (170)
Wilson Reis (125) vs. John Moraga (126)
Krzysztof Jotko (185.5) vs. Brad Tavares (186)
Gilbert Burns (156) vs. Dan Moret (156)
Shana Dobson (126) vs. Lauren Mueller (126)
Dhiego Lima (171) vs. Yushin Okami (170)
Arjan Bhullar (241) vs. Adam Wieczorek (232)
Matthew Lopez (136) vs. Alejandro Perez (136)
Luke Sanders (135) vs. Patrick Williams (136)

[bbc.reporter]

I see only 2 interesting fights
Carlos Condit (30-11) vs. Alex Oliveira (17-5-1) (Welterweight)
Tim Boetsch (21-11) vs. Antonio Carlos Junior (9-2) (Middleweight)
I highlighted my pick. Others may give their best to give the viewers a good show but lately UFC is not booking those big names for an event. Is it because they are running out of good fighters or they just want to save the best for last 3 months of the year where they book great fighters and great fight card.

Our Carlos Condit bet lost. This is a sad day for him and his fans because this fight should be taken as a sign that he should soon be thinking about retirement from fighting.

The sportsbooks already knew they were driving us to a loss by giving attractive odds for Carlos hehehe.

[notserp]

i been on a nice run since i stopped posting my pics went 3-0 this event

[Baofeng]

I see only 2 interesting fights
Carlos Condit (30-11) vs. Alex Oliveira (17-5-1) (Welterweight)
Tim Boetsch (21-11) vs. Antonio Carlos Junior (9-2) (Middleweight)
I highlighted my pick. Others may give their best to give the viewers a good show but lately UFC is not booking those big names for an event. Is it because they are running out of good fighters or they just want to save the best for last 3 months of the year where they book great fighters and great fight card.

Our Carlos Condit bet lost. This is a sad day for him and his fans because this fight should be taken as a sign that he should soon be thinking about retirement from fighting.

The sportsbooks already knew they were driving us to a loss by giving attractive odds for Carlos hehehe.

Oh well, yeah, I think Carlos Condit's days are over, this is his 4 straight lost, so I'm expecting that UFC might let him go for good. It was a good fight though and I have him winning the first round up until that guillotine and he was forced to tap out. I don't know about the  bookies though, maybe some mma pundits still thinks that Carlos has still and can pull a will. Or maybe the sportsbooks know something that we didn't. lol.

[tokeweed]

i been on a nice run since i stopped posting my pics went 3-0 this event

Share!  

I'm mostly down in MMA betting.  I also tried krach's picks but that didn't help much.  Anyway, I was out of the house for this one too (and the Chinese GP), so I haven't had the chance to watch any of it.  But I heard the main event was good.

But here are the results anyway...

[Hydrogen]

I wish Gaethje would fight more technical. He doesn't have to absorb or slip every punch his opponent throws. I'm surprised Dustin Poirier was able to absorb that many leg kicks and still fight effectively. Both guys were tough as nails, it was almost like watching two superheroes fight where they batter each other mercilessly. If DP vs Gaethje happened in a movie, people would say its fake as the human body "can't" withstand that much punishment, the way that people said WWE/WWF wrestling is fake.

Lauren Mueller was very impressive in her fight as was Israel Adesanya.

My gambling and picks aren't going too bad at the moment. I profited the last 4/5 weeks. Still thinking about what I'll do in regard to that thread I made in the gambling section awhile ago. Nothing definite yet. I'm trying to learn some CNC and DIY stuff. Diversifying in case bitcoin or my gambling fails, maybe both.

Next weeks card should be fun. Hopefully, everyone will do better with that event.  

[tokeweed]

^  Gaethje is too tough for his own good.  His style isn't sustainable...  If he continues to fight like that he'd have a brain injury or some sort of head complication within 5 years imho.

But what a war.  I hope to see Poirier vs Ferguson and McGregor vs Khabib in one event.

[Hydrogen]

^  Gaethje is too tough for his own good.  His style isn't sustainable...  If he continues to fight like that he'd have a brain injury or some sort of head complication within 5 years imho.

But what a war.  I hope to see Poirier vs Ferguson and McGregor vs Khabib in one event.

Yeah. Even the Diaz brothers aren't crazy enough to fight the way Gaethje does and they're notorious (no pun intended) for being exciting brawlers with fan friendly styles.

It is hard to say what the limitations of the human body are. Boxers like Bernard Hopkins and Roy Jones Jr. and other greats might have spent literally decades beating each other up in the gym to learn their craft, absorbing literally thousands if not millions of punches in their lifetime. And so perhaps concerns with concussions and brain damage could be exaggerated. I think NFL players suffer worse traumatic brain injuries on average and absorb more significant blows to the head.

The main issue with MMA could be fighters cutting significantly higher quantities of weight. Even though they have 24 hours to re-absorb water, dehydration can contribute towards making it easier for fighters to sustain concussions or other brain injury. Also MMA fighters tend not to use headgear or other protective measures. Unfortunately there are some like Martin Kampmann and Chris Holdsworth who have had their MMA careers cut short due to them having issues with injuries to the brain.

[SaShiRaJaVu]

^  Gaethje is too tough for his own good.  His style isn't sustainable...  If he continues to fight like that he'd have a brain injury or some sort of head complication within 5 years imho.
But what a war.  I hope to see Poirier vs Ferguson and McGregor vs Khabib in one event.

Justin Gaethje wont change his style and even in his post speech he said he wants to be remembered as the violent man inside the cage who entertains people and he has five fights left in him and with the way he is fighting that is true as he earned three bonuses so far in his three fights and two fight of the night bonus on his two losses too. He is a great wrestler but he is not using his brains and no one can take the kind of punishment he is enduring for a longer period.
Having them fight Poirier vs Ferguson and McGregor vs Khabib in one night would be a great idea but is highly unlikely because anyone could miss the fight and they could fill in as an alternative. 

[tokeweed]

^  The he should save all his fight earnings now and be prepared to retire in two or three years.  He'll be needing it for his therapy sessions for brain damage. 

And LOL.  That's true.  One could pull out anytime from each bout.

[brampower]

@eaLiTy did you predict the fights after the event, it was a good prediction but what were the odds.

If DP vs Gaethje happened in a movie, people would say its fake as the human body "can't" withstand that much punishment, the way that people said WWE/WWF wrestling is fake.

I watched that fight on youtube, it was a brawl and both fighters took punishment. Are you trying to tell that WWE is real.  

i been on a nice run since i stopped posting my pics went 3-0 this event

Why dont you share your picks here, no one will jinx it.  

^  The he should save all his fight earnings now and be prepared to retire in two or three years.  He'll be needing it for his therapy sessions for brain damage.  

If he keeps on fighting like this he need more money to be spent in hospitals, theoretically spending all his fight night bonus to hospital for the amount of damage he takes.

[eaLiTy]

@eaLiTy did you predict the fights after the event, it was a good prediction but what were the odds.

I usually play parlay on most of my predictions and fighting cannot be predicted exactly precise, it all depends upon how they perform on that particular day, doing MMA math is not possible and with Poirier and Gaethje you cannot conclusively say one is going to win before the fight rather than speculating and choose a side, as bbc.reporter noted, one is a technical striker while the other a brawler and Gaethje had a good chin before coming to UFC, but the caliber of fighters is different here and you cannot take punishment all the time, what i am trying to say is, styles makes fights and some fights we know what the result would be and those are the ones i usually pick rather than going for difficult ones.