Is now the time to buy

[gwoplock]

I am new to Bitcoin and i am trying to figure out if i should buy now.

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[notme]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging

[bitcon]

i missed the bottom around 270, but i picked up a few coins at 313.  its hard to tell whats going to happen. i expected china to wake up and panic sell, but apparently there are no bears in china. we here in the US crash the market, and china gets all our cheap coins.

[BlueTemplar]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging

The question is, how does that apply to an exponentially increasing stock like bitcoin?

[BittBurger]

i expected china to wake up and panic sell, but apparently there are no bears in china. we here in the US crash the market, and china gets all our cheap coins.

They are smarter than we are.

[derpinheimer]

i missed the bottom around 270, but i picked up a few coins at 313.  its hard to tell whats going to happen. i expected china to wake up and panic sell, but apparently there are no bears in china. we here in the US crash the market, and china gets all our cheap coins.

Why would you expect China to panic sell on a Monday? Sounds like you just made something up to re-affirm your position.

[MAbtc]

I stopped bringing new dollars in a long time ago. I'd be pretty uneasy buying in at these prices. Sure, there is a LOT of upside risk -- so if you have risk tolerance, go for it. Lots of money to be made.

But we could drop violently as well! 

[adamstgBit]

understand why bitcoin is extremely volatile and growing fast, and place your bids / asks accordingly. good luck! 

[BitchicksHusband]

I am new to Bitcoin and i am trying to figure out if i should buy now.

Most of us believe that long-term, Bitcoin will go to between $10,000 and $100,000 per coin.  Once you realize how likely that is, you really aren't going to care whether you got in at $313 or $350.  Just get in before the exponential growth takes us to $400.

[RodeoX]

If i knew for sure I wold tell you. But you will have to guess with the rest of us. Personally I think there is a huge amount of growth in value coming, so I bought some.

[SheHadMANHands]

I stopped bringing new dollars in a long time ago. I'd be pretty uneasy buying in at these prices. Sure, there is a LOT of upside risk -- so if you have risk tolerance, go for it. Lots of money to be made.

But we could drop violently as well!  

You just have to be very ready with Bitcoin to lose it all.  The price could potentially go to zero in the future, at which point it wouldn't matter if you bought at $300 or $100.  With the higher price, there's generally a bit less risk of that coming to fruition, as price is an indication of increased awareness, sense of optimism, etc.

Most people believe Bitcoin is a binary outcome: $0 or $100k (something like that).  If that's the case, the only downside risk you should be concerned with, in the long run, is a complete lose.  On the other end, your upside potential obviously gets a little lower as the price goes up and you buy.. but it's still huge.

[Paladin69]

I am new to Bitcoin and i am trying to figure out if i should buy now.

Most of us believe that long-term, Bitcoin will go to between $10,000 and $100,000 per coin.  Once you realize how likely that is, you really aren't going to care whether you got in at $313 or $350.  Just get in before the exponential growth takes us to $400.

And then when it drops to $120 you will be kicking yourself because you could've bought 3x more.  Nobody knows...

I personally don't like chasing bubbles.  I'm not going to say "sell", but the volume on this sucker is a lot less than it was in April...



I still think we could drop to somewhere between $120-$150

[SheHadMANHands]

I still think we could drop to somewhere between $120-$150

I would wager heavily against that.  Unless we're passing $120 on the way to zero..

Many people seem really uncomfortable with a new price outside of the $100-$150 range.  I suspect only because we sat there for so long and it's sort of become an emotional, comfy zone.

[Paladin69]

I still think we could drop to somewhere between $120-$150

I would wager heavily against that.  Unless we're passing $120 on the way to zero..

Many people seem really uncomfortable with a new price outside of the $100-$150 range.  I suspect only because we sat there for so long and it's sort of become an emotional, comfy zone.

The dead cat certainly bounced Saturday night.  Whether he is wearing flubber shoes or not is the real question.  It's the volume that does it for me.  It is thin as air under there compared to April by a lot.  Look close.  There are fewer big actors moving this.  I don't think it is malicious, but something is playing out.

[notme]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging

The question is, how does that apply to an exponentially increasing stock like bitcoin?

Since when is bitcoin a stock?  And since when does bitcoin only increase?

[BlueTemplar]

Investment, whatever.

And maybe you haven't noticed, but on average bitcoins have been increasing since day one...

[notme]

Investment, whatever.

And maybe you haven't noticed, but on average bitcoins have been increasing since day one...

And there are many examples of times when it would be better to buy over time than buy all at once.  I've been here since bitcoin was less than $1.  What would be better, buying $500 worth at $266 each or buying $100 worth once a week for 5 weeks starting at the $266 peak?  Yes, either is profitable at this point, but you would have a lot more BTC with the second option.

[BlueTemplar]

I think that's right, but for another reason : if you're new in bitcoin, then it's statistically more likely that a crash is about to happen (because of how the hype machine and bubbles work). So in that case, spreading the purchases over some time is probably better indeed. Or you could wait to buy after the crash, but in bitcoin's case it might be risky, because if you noticed the bubble early enough, the low after it pops might be higher than when you were ready to buy at the first time.

[notme]

I think that's right, but for another reason : if you're new in bitcoin, then it's statistically more likely that a crash is about to happen (because of how the hype machine and bubbles work). So in that case, spreading the purchases over some time is probably better indeed. Or you could wait to buy after the crash, but in bitcoin's case it might be risky, because if you noticed the bubble early enough, the low after it pops might be higher than when you were ready to buy at the first time.

Exactly.  Good luck picking the highs and lows, but if you are thinking about buying bitcoin for the first time others probably are too.  Instead of throwing it all in and praying you didn't have horrible timing, DCA allows you to get a good average price no matter what happens in the short term.

[BlueTemplar]

If only someone had told me this in June 2011 when I converted 50% of my savings into bitcoins at once at $28/BTC...