[2018-04-14] Opinion: We are at the End of another Cryptocurrency Downward Trend

[adel hmdt]

Since the beginning of 2018, the price of Bitcoin has been one of the most popularly discussed topics within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. The reason for this is not far-fetched as there has been a huge slump in price and a downward pressure that defeats the expectations of many.

An Influx of Speculators
Besides the underlying technology and the various ICOs that erupted towards the end of 2017, the steady rise in the price of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies attracted a significant amount of new money. Majority of the new money was from speculative investors who got in primarily for the promise of cashing in at higher prices in the short term. Unfortunately for these class of investors, the slump in price of over 60% from Bitcoin’s all time high means that they have either recouped their investments at a loss, or are “HODLING” in the hope of a rise in price.

No matter the individual perceptions, the obtainable situation is indeed having a significant effect on the ecosystem. While most of the newbies remain confused and wallow in panic as to what may become of the cryptocurrency market, the more experienced players seem unperturbed.

https://www.ccn.com/we-are-at-the-end-of-another-cryptocurrencies-downward-trend-opinion/

[BitHodler]

I'm really interested to see how much value the tax season speculation actually hold. If it's not just hot air speculation, then I do expect another bump in price next week. If so, then fomo will be dictating the market again.

I'm quite sure that there are a lot investors waiting to enter the market once they see the price go up again for a good while, instead of constantly go down like how the market has been plummeting in the last months.

Instead of buying the dips as smart investors are doing, a lot other, less savvy investors need to gain confidence during a longer period of growth. At least they can't go wrong as long as they buy below the $10,000 mark.

[odolvlobo]

The problem with the article is that nothing is given to support the claim that we are at the end of the downtrend -- just some random quote.

[d5000]

Imo Lebanov at least is right with his opinion that the market is indeed already tired from the downtrend. There were no real attacks on the last lows, and many shorts at Finex have been closed, so in the short term (next month or so) I expect at least a sideways and probably a slightly bullish market.

However, it's too early to bet on a definitive trend reversal. On Google Trends, for example, one can see that the interest in Bitcoin has decreased a bit. It may be a very good moment to buy for "smart money" which are willing to hold long-term. But if you need the money in e.g. the next year, then you should still be careful.

In 2014, for example, we also had a little trend reversal in April/May, but it was short-lived and 6 weeks later, the bear market returned (see this graph). It is not guaranteed that the same pattern will happen again, but I consider it a realistic possibility.

[Jating]

Imo Lebanov at least is right with his opinion that the market is indeed already tired from the downtrend. There were no real attacks on the last lows, and many shorts at Finex have been closed, so in the short term (next month or so) I expect at least a sideways and probably a slightly bullish market.

However, it's too early to bet on a definitive trend reversal. On Google Trends, for example, one can see that the interest in Bitcoin has decreased a bit. It may be a very good moment to buy for "smart money" which are willing to hold long-term. But if you need the money in e.g. the next year, then you should still be careful.

In 2014, for example, we also had a little trend reversal in April/May, but it was short-lived and 6 weeks later, the bear market returned (see this graph). It is not guaranteed that the same pattern will happen again, but I consider it a realistic possibility.

Correct mate, Maybe we are tired seeing the price going down the pipe, but the questions remains, is the current surge really sustainable or this is just a after effect of the tax season in US or institutional investors pouring cash?

So its really early to say and I guess we need how it goes at the end of the month. Right now we haven't got to $8100 and it keeps fluctuating from $7800-$8K. Will be happy to see the price continues to grow, but I wouldn't put too much expectations because I don't want to be disappointed again. Will continue to monitor price just in case and for sanity's sake.

[Gotottack]

I do not think so. As long as a good number of people earn in cryptocurrencies, it will always continue to be a powerful force for the populace because in this day and age, people are always looking forward to increasing their wealth, among other things. This is due to the inflation that has been all along since the worldwide crises, and people cannot make the ends meet because they are defeated by conversion. This is what is happening in real life but we only see the successful, the influential, and the powerful. Hence, people, rich or poor, are always thirsty for income no matter what it takes. This is the reason cryptocurrencies are a thing to all -- because it gives so much chances to increase one's wealth in no time. Hence, I do not think we have come to the tail end. In fact, we only just begun.

[Xavofat]

I think general interest in Bitcoin has waned quite drastically because it doesn't already have a huge amount of momentum.

Much of the last bull market's rises appeared to be due to mania and wave after wave of people flocking into Bitcoin while barely thinking about it for any reason other than a potential price rise.  I don't see the price rising to anywhere near the previous levels if a bull market were to abruptly resume from here.

In reality, I'd be very surprised if the market turned around from here.  The article provides quite little justification for why the price would rise other than from a wave of new speculators, because there's little justification to give.

I'll be interested to see how an actual increase in convenience like the LN will affect Bitcoin's price in a year or two, if people even care about that at all anymore.

[CryptoBry]

I am hoping that cryptocurrency market is about to make some necessary rebounds from now on and that this will not be another bull trap, so to speak. Based on its own history, cryptocurrency is quite resilient and that it has this strong ability to make a good comeback and this is what we really right now.

[FrueGreads]

I agree with what has been said here. It's still to soon to say that we are out of the down trend. I mean from a fundamental point of view, the markets should actually been going up. We have big financial companies buying exchanges, which shows that the interest in crypto exists. We have a lot of countries talking about regulation, and every time people expect the worse, we actually get decent news, and at least in well developed countries bitcoin continues to give small steps in terms of regulation, without any fear for a real ban.

In terms of technology improvements we are actually doing quite well, now that LN is so close. It's already on the main net, and at least one wallet was already released for public use, so we should expect more services soon.

The bad news we get are usually just fud, and the markets ends up seeing that they don't harm BTC in anyway. Despite all this we actually saw the market going down, and that's why it's so hard to say if the down trend is over or not, simply because there was not real reason for it to occur.

I really believe that BTC will do well in the future, and once everything gets more clear for crypto, I see no reason for big investors to stay out of crypto. Once they come in, then the down trend will be over. So right now, I think our best scenario is to trade sideways, with a slight positive trend.

[hatshepsut93]

I don't believe that the downtrend has ended, to me it all looks like a huge bull trap, simply because it took very short time to jump from $6,000 to $8,000 after the price was declining only a few months after the previous ATH. But I don't we'll have any devastating crashes anymore, the price will probably go down a bit but then it will stabilize, which is great in my opinion, since lower volatility will bring confidence to investors and a new bull run will start eventually. It seems like many people are very impatient in crypto sphere, they want to see high returns within weeks or months, but I think people should be focused on longer perspective.

[Irvine Scottish]

Not enough proofs, that's why I'm not sure about all of this...

[Glenn Techincs]

This opinion is poorly proved, but I hope is correct. Community is tired to see price of all coins going down day by day