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Author Topic: Crypto is more like “a psychological experiment than a serious investment"  (Read 455 times)
FuninUSA
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April 15, 2018, 07:27:17 AM
 #1

Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University and co-founder of the Case-Shiller Index, expressed his idea about cryptocurrency.

"I'm interested in bitcoin as a sort of bubble. It doesn't mean that it will disappear, that it'll burst forever. It may be with us for a while," said Shiller.

"To me, it's interesting as another example of faddish human behavior. It's glamorous," he added. The bitcoin craze reminds him of tulip mania in the 17th century, the event which is considered one of the first recorded speculative bubbles where a buying frenzy and lofty expectations replace rational justifications for an item's value.

The price of bitcoin grew so fast. The cryptocurrency hurtled above $1,000 in early 2017 after trading at less than a $1 at the beginning of the decade. It even hit an all-time high north of $20,000 in mid-December. (recommend FuninUSA for updated data about cryptocurrency)

A lot of people have benefited from the cryptocurrency investment. But Shiller would still like to see it as a psychology experiment. “It is more psychological than something that could be explained by the computer science department,” He said.

Bitcoin held above $8,000 on Friday morning after topping that level a day earlier. The two-day rally comes after a weak start to April likely tied to tax-related selling. Prices dipped below $7,000 earlier this month.

Will the bitcoin disappear? What's the true value of bitcoin? What essence in bitcoin are we paying for? Huh
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April 17, 2018, 09:52:08 PM
 #2

Yes investing in crypto market involves a psychological aspect also. But it’s wrong to address crypto only as a psychological experiment. It’s much more than that. I think crypto is definitely a serious investment because it needs a lot of experience and exposure to the market to trade profitably. Only experimenting with it will not yield favorable results. On the hand how much profit a trader can earn depends on the psychology of the investor like how he responds to the losses, etc.
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April 17, 2018, 10:11:05 PM
 #3

Do you know why most of the time educated man is physically and mentally absence in reality? Because they have a world of its own. This is why most of the time they’re outdated and technologically ignorance. They’re mostly using book rather than ebooks or computers. Not all, but most of them.

If this man is my professor I would rather home study than hearing lectures that is in old fashion.

I hate those who give an expert opinion on things they don’t know or close minded because of self interest. Most probably he invested in stock market and find bitcoin as a threat.
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April 17, 2018, 10:23:24 PM
 #4

I wouldn't be surprise such statement coming from a economist. We all know that they hate bitcoin and for them, anything that defies economic law is pure garbage and will not take off. However, crypto has been in existing for almost a decade now so I disagree with him that this is just a experiment. More people have been investing on it, yeah its a speculative assets but I'm sure that it has been a good investment instrument for most of us specially in the last 2 years or so.

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April 17, 2018, 10:25:18 PM
 #5

Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University and co-founder of the Case-Shiller Index, expressed his idea about cryptocurrency.

"I'm interested in bitcoin as a sort of bubble. It doesn't mean that it will disappear, that it'll burst forever. It may be with us for a while," said Shiller.

"To me, it's interesting as another example of faddish human behavior. It's glamorous," he added. The bitcoin craze reminds him of tulip mania in the 17th century, the event which is considered one of the first recorded speculative bubbles where a buying frenzy and lofty expectations replace rational justifications for an item's value.

The price of bitcoin grew so fast. The cryptocurrency hurtled above $1,000 in early 2017 after trading at less than a $1 at the beginning of the decade. It even hit an all-time high north of $20,000 in mid-December. (recommend FuninUSA for updated data about cryptocurrency)

A lot of people have benefited from the cryptocurrency investment. But Shiller would still like to see it as a psychology experiment. “It is more psychological than something that could be explained by the computer science department,” He said.

Bitcoin held above $8,000 on Friday morning after topping that level a day earlier. The two-day rally comes after a weak start to April likely tied to tax-related selling. Prices dipped below $7,000 earlier this month.

Will the bitcoin disappear? What's the true value of bitcoin? What essence in bitcoin are we paying for? Huh

He's literally grasping at one event, of the 2017 bull market. Obviously, after such huge surges in price, a bear market was bound to kick in and prices could not have been sustainable at such high levels. The crypto bull market was definitely fueled by fomo buying, as with any investment, even stocks. But bitcoin itself is not a "psychological experiment".

Its value comes from the fact that it is decentralized, and that nobody can manipulate with the supply, unlike fiat currencies.

I just simply don't see how a comparison of tulips to bitcoin is fair, when bitcoin is a practical currency that has already benefited a lot of people because of its convenience of sending money, and also as a store of value. Bitcoin is a serious investment, you'd be proven wrong if you think otherwise with time.

 
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April 17, 2018, 10:52:52 PM
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 #6

A lot of people have benefited from the cryptocurrency investment. But Shiller would still like to see it as a psychology experiment. “It is more psychological than something that could be explained by the computer science department,” He said.

Bolded: it sounds like Robert Shiller is claiming blockchain has no real world application in computer science, security, finance or otherwise legitimate software engineering fields. Almost as if Shiller doesn't realize shipping firms and many others are utilizing blockchain technology in ledgers and banks are being forced to rollout faster transactions with lower fees to better compete with bitcoin, after decades of industry wide stagnation. Perhaps this serves as a real world example why armchair economists should not comment on things they do not understand or have experience with.  

It also sounds like Shiller is claiming neither bitcoin nor crypto currencies have anything of value to offer the world. As an economist he should appreciate the thought experiment bitcoin and crypto currencies offer in terms of decentralization, deflation, limited supply, algorithmically limited production of assets and other interesting and thought provoking discussions which bitcoin brings to the table.

Lastly, Shiller should appreciate the high growth of bitcoin/crypto users worldwide. Robinhood trading platform gained near to 1 million new sign ups after announcing crypto currency support.

Bitcoin could offer a safe haven for consumer wealth in the event of a worst case scenario where the dollar or euro default. They also offer financial services to many poor demographics who could not afford a bank account or platform which allows them to electronically execute transactions or transfer money.

 Shiller sound more like a youtuber who attacked bitcoin only because they were paid to than he does someone speaking as an objective and independent economist here. The same might be said of Paul Krugman and many other economists who have commented on bitcoin.

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April 17, 2018, 10:56:01 PM
 #7

I barely disagree to the part where sir Robert Shiller said that cryptocurrency is more like a "psychology experiment", I think that is not an appropriate term. He was able to say those things maybe because crypto's ups and downs of price in the market  greatly affect our behavior as a person. Well, that's true and pretty obvious; panic seller is one of the good example. But technically speaking, crypto is definitely a serious investment and not directly related with psychological stuffs.

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April 17, 2018, 10:57:46 PM
 #8

Will the bitcoin disappear?
I do believe that bitcoin will not be with us for awhile but it's here to stay.
What's the true value of bitcoin?
The true value of bitcoin depends on how big is the current market cap. The true value of bitcoin now for everyone is its worth isn't just a cryptocurrency but it's more of an asset now.
And about Robert Shiller, I guess he knows many things about bitcoin but he's giving his thought for his own interest just like what Dimon did.

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April 18, 2018, 12:50:37 AM
 #9

Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University and co-founder of the Case-Shiller Index, expressed his idea about cryptocurrency.

"I'm interested in bitcoin as a sort of bubble. It doesn't mean that it will disappear, that it'll burst forever. It may be with us for a while," said Shiller.

"To me, it's interesting as another example of faddish human behavior. It's glamorous," he added. The bitcoin craze reminds him of tulip mania in the 17th century, the event which is considered one of the first recorded speculative bubbles where a buying frenzy and lofty expectations replace rational justifications for an item's value.

The price of bitcoin grew so fast. The cryptocurrency hurtled above $1,000 in early 2017 after trading at less than a $1 at the beginning of the decade. It even hit an all-time high north of $20,000 in mid-December. (recommend FuninUSA for updated data about cryptocurrency)

A lot of people have benefited from the cryptocurrency investment. But Shiller would still like to see it as a psychology experiment. “It is more psychological than something that could be explained by the computer science department,” He said.

Bitcoin held above $8,000 on Friday morning after topping that level a day earlier. The two-day rally comes after a weak start to April likely tied to tax-related selling. Prices dipped below $7,000 earlier this month.

Will the bitcoin disappear? What's the true value of bitcoin? What essence in bitcoin are we paying for? Huh

Tulips had absolutely no technology backing them. They were not a useful mode of payment. Bitcoin just not comparable to the tulip mania, as much as people want to make comparisons here.

Bitcoin will not disappear, as long as people are using the network, Bitcoin will exist.

The pumps last year may have been a speculative bubble, but that doesn't mean that bitcoin itself is a psychological experiment. It's a currency.

Bitcoin's value comes from the fact that you need to use it to transact on the bitcoin network. It is a long term store of value, it is decentralised, it is disinflationary unlike fiat currencies. Like Hydrogen mentioned, he is completely ignoring the economic benefits that bitcoin brings to the table. Instead, he is treating it as if it was merely an investment scheme, which it is not.

 
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April 18, 2018, 01:47:49 AM
 #10

Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University and co-founder of the Case-Shiller Index, expressed his idea about cryptocurrency.

"I'm interested in bitcoin as a sort of bubble. It doesn't mean that it will disappear, that it'll burst forever. It may be with us for a while," said Shiller.

"To me, it's interesting as another example of faddish human behavior. It's glamorous," he added. The bitcoin craze reminds him of tulip mania in the 17th century, the event which is considered one of the first recorded speculative bubbles where a buying frenzy and lofty expectations replace rational justifications for an item's value.

The price of bitcoin grew so fast. The cryptocurrency hurtled above $1,000 in early 2017 after trading at less than a $1 at the beginning of the decade. It even hit an all-time high north of $20,000 in mid-December. (recommend FuninUSA for updated data about cryptocurrency)

A lot of people have benefited from the cryptocurrency investment. But Shiller would still like to see it as a psychology experiment. “It is more psychological than something that could be explained by the computer science department,” He said.

Bitcoin held above $8,000 on Friday morning after topping that level a day earlier. The two-day rally comes after a weak start to April likely tied to tax-related selling. Prices dipped below $7,000 earlier this month.

Will the bitcoin disappear? What's the true value of bitcoin? What essence in bitcoin are we paying for? Huh

I think all cryptocurrency investment has a strong tie to psychology. The price of bitcoin is based on what we believe the price should be based on how it's being bought and sold. There's nothing holding its value; it's mainly just held down by the opinions of multiple investors. With that, we see a lot of backlash saying that since bitcoin doesn't really have a backing, it shouldn't have a value. However, this is not true. The value comes solely from what people think the value should be and that's what makes Bitcoin so unique. Without that concept, there would be no cryptocurrency markets anyway, and seeing as Bitcoin is valued at over 7,900 USD currently, I think there is a strong argument FOR bitcoin.

This area is up for grabs! PM me if you're interested.
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April 18, 2018, 01:48:30 AM
 #11

He's probably trying to say that Bitcoin is only a figment of one's imagination, making it psychological. I don't see where he gets it from and what makes him think that Bitcoin has no application in computer science, but it's obvious that he lacks knowledge about bitcoin. Many even suggest that it's the other way around and that bitcoin has nothing to do with economics but is more technological because it involves coding. Before making such statements, he should do his homework first.
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April 18, 2018, 06:10:25 AM
 #12

investment is another word for experiment. we tend to gamble with the outcome of putting money on bitcoin, it will definitely not going to be a bubble as long as bitcoin can be converted into cash which can be use to purchase online, having millions worth of money invested on bitcoin seems serious to me, having users around the world seems serious to me, the fact is, bitcoin today is not just an investments, but a potential financial power of an individual users with freedom on how to spend it and when to earn more from it.

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April 18, 2018, 06:51:09 AM
 #13

Well. everything in this realm is psychological... even money (fiat). When a group of people believes or agrees about something, revolution happens. Bitcoin did not get people's attention instantly, it took time before the people bought it. Why? probably because they (or we) have already agreed (mutually) that bitcoin and fiat are not far from each other - bitcoins could also be used just like how we use fiat. And that is psycho, isn't that?
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April 18, 2018, 07:15:33 AM
 #14

Those who said these things certainly did not invest in Bitcoin. Lol
As for Bitcoin's bubble, then take the example of a tulip. Anyway, I haven't seen the tulip bubble. I have only seen fiat currency bubble for decades.
As for economics, I believe that Bitcoin is very much in line with F A Hayek's ideal currency. Although Robert Shiller is also a well-known economist, Bitcoin is not merely an economic issue. It also involves politics. I think that considering it only from the perspective of economics is relatively narrow.
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April 18, 2018, 07:16:00 AM
 #15

The price appreciation might very well be due to psychological reasons, but that doesn’t take away the fact that Bitcoin represents a breakthrough in technology. The bubble may burst, but bitcoin will continue to be used. If this is an experiment, I definitely want to be part of it.


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April 18, 2018, 07:33:22 AM
 #16

I just hope this is not another FUD indirect, but it's a good thing to know that he said that he stated that bitcoin will stay with us for a while. And also, nobody knows if bitcoin will disappear or not, just like many things is unpredictable in cryptocurrency. And also, the true value of bitcoin is also unknown too, but keep in mind that its value and price will keep on increasing immensely. 

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April 18, 2018, 07:47:41 AM
 #17

"To me, it's interesting as another example of faddish human behavior. It's glamorous," he added. The bitcoin craze reminds him of tulip mania in the 17th century, the event which is considered one of the first recorded speculative bubbles where a buying frenzy and lofty expectations replace rational justifications for an item's value.
I know that Robert Shiller is a Nobel prize winning economist, but one thing he specializes is human behavior in economics and investment and may be that the reason he is referring it as tulip mania, but with that reference we can very well tell that he does not have a clue what he is talking about, if he is talking about the entire alt coin market then it might be true, but it cannot be true with bitcoin as it is limited in circulation and there is no way you can compare it to tulip mania .

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April 18, 2018, 07:59:49 AM
 #18

Quote
To me, it's interesting as another example of faddish human behavior. It is more psychological than something that could be explained by the computer science department.

Faddish human behavior/psychology is driving the market; it's true to an extent.
 
The computer science department part is a bit confusing. Couple of his past statements:

Quote
Then, we have a new form of money that ... sounds extremely revolutionary and involves a very clever use of cryptography that you can spend all afternoon trying to figure out," Shiller said. "So the story has inspired young people and active people, and that's what's driving the market.

Cryptography/Blockchain technology is the story that is driving the market.

Quote
I tend to think of bitcoin as an experiment," he said. "It is an interesting experiment, but it's not a permanent feature of our lives. We are over-emphasizing bitcoin, we should broaden it out to blockchain, which will have other applications.

He also said that there is a political side:

Quote
Part of it is political. Economists tend to neglect the political side," he said. "There's a big element of people [who] don't trust the government anymore. They like the idea that this didn't come from the government. It came from some real smart computer scientist. They like that. It's a great story for today's markets.

I wouldn't call it political. People's distrust in the government is driving the Bitcoin market, now doesn't that make Bitcoin a socio-economic experiment?

Robert Schiller did said that Bitcoin is the best example of a bubble, tulip mania and it's collapse was imminent and then changed his opinion to cryptocurrencies could linger on for a good long time and now faddish human behavior, but at the same time consideringthe decentralized socio-economic angle of Bitcoin. He seems a tad bit confused and he did said that he doesn't know what to make of Bitcoin ultimately.
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April 19, 2018, 08:50:16 AM
 #19

What we are really paying for is the fact that we can easily make payment anywhere in the world without a third party, and the fact that it is meant to be a decentralized and deflationary currency. Nevertheless, let's face it, that idea is more like hitting the drain as most people now consider it more as a speculative asset than a currency and unless we start seeing mainstream adoption as a currency, it is always going to end up being more like a bubbled price than having a real value. Bitcoin itself is not a bubble, but the value at a present point in time can end up being a bubble.
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April 19, 2018, 08:56:43 AM
 #20

I think the other way. Bitcoin is not psychological experiment but a virtual reality which can not be explained with such terms. It is real because it usage the real energy and it creates valuable assets after complex maths solving and stuff like that. Thats not even close to psychological experiments. People are not having fun here but doing some serious coding so that blockchain can work and we can use it to transform the way transactions and money circulation works! Where is the psychology here? The prices that are increasing in this market is a result of the investment, new tech approaches and people putting their money into it just like they do for the stocks and golds.
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