What happens to Bitcoin value when block reward drops?

[DualSignal]

What is likely to happen to the Value of BTC against USD when the block reward is halved in 2016? Any predictions and reasons for you forecast. Is the Value likely to return to where it was before the drop?

[BadAss.Sx]

Mining will be for elite then and price will go up at the beginning..

[ParabelluM]

The price = Skyrocket

[Gator-hex]

It will cost more to mine new coins so pretty much guarantees as rise in Bitcoin price.

Expect to see lots of Bitcoin arbitrage scams around this period. They go something like this...

I have the miracle mining machine, you'll need it to remain profitable, pre-order with Bitcoins now!

Reward drops, bitcoin price rises.

Sorry the project has been canceled / indefinably delayed (until you cancel order), here's your money back, in dollars, because we had to convert it.

They pocket the price rise for themselves, the people who pre-ordered in Bitcoins lose out.

[AuroraHF]

Won't better equipment be produced to keep up with the difficulty, hence it's easier to mine? As long as the equipment stays cheap though.

[ajax3592]

What is likely to happen to the Value of BTC against USD when the block reward is halved in 2016? Any predictions and reasons for you forecast. Is the Value likely to return to where it was before the drop?

When the bitcoin reward per block gets reduced, there is a scarcity of Bitcoins which shoots up the value.
Anything produced in less number with high demand has high value.

[blbec]

The price = Skyrocket

I don't think so

i mean yes, but it will be much earlier before the reward drops. and after reward drops, it starts to returning back on the lower price.

[natd]

 The block reward will be halving ad infinitum? 1BTC -> 0.5 BTC -> 0.25 and so on?

[fiddelingones]

The block reward will be halving ad infinitum? 1BTC -> 0.5 BTC -> 0.25 and so on?

Yes, you are correct, about every 4 years

[Sigmoid]

It may (will) undermine hashing distribution, and eventually destroy bitcoin.

"Mining is for an elite" = security and anonymity has been compromised.

Unless people start paying transaction fees asap.

[c789]

One of the many things I love about Bitcoin is that it is based upon sound economic and computer science prinicples.

As for your question, the economic principle of scarcity comes into play. When something is scarce, especially scare and in demand, then its value goes up. So, when the reward halves, it effectively becomes more scarce, which will cause its value to rise.

Kinda makes you wonder what politicians are thinking when they decide to print more money to either pay off debt or so that "everyone can have more." Neither works.

[Jcw188]

It may (will) undermine hashing distribution, and eventually destroy bitcoin.

"Mining is for an elite" = security and anonymity has been compromised.

Unless people start paying transaction fees asap.

Yes this is a fear, if only a small number of users can ultimately mine.  Isn't that one of the strengths of BTC, that there are many miners?  I bet this has been discussed in a different forum, ppl might be thinking it's so far away it can be changed in the future.

[MR2]

There will be transaction fees - easy like that.

People who already had mining hardware will stick to them and get the transaction fees - the hardware should have paid for itself already. There are already huge bitcoin farms. Most of them will be profitable with transaction fees.

Some will sell their hardware or shut down their hardware due of el. cost or they get damaged and not replaced. Difficulty will go down but stay high cause of ASICS going to be much cheaper.

Most of the big farms will stay alive where electricity is cheap or free. Maybe Asian, may be Afrika or even Dubai, when there is big money involved. Everyone else will be sorted out. Also possible: Solar Farms in Desert. Cheap area, free power, Sat Uplink. Whoever has feet in there will just grow more everyone else will starve.

It's an overall problem of BTC (one of many) - in the end only some few entities will control Blockchain = compromised = end of BTC. Just one of many problems which will prevent BTC from being successful.

Other Coins have much better technique and are more suited for future use.

[Sigmoid]

It's an overall problem of BTC (one of many) - in the end only some few entities will control Blockchain = compromised = end of BTC. Just one of many problems which will prevent BTC from being successful.

Other Coins have much better technique and are more suited for future use.

I haven't yet seen a major alt coin with a constant linear money supply. It makes perfect sense to have predictable low inflation over a long term. It would make for a much more stable and much more ethical system.

It still rules out the deliberate easings that central banks use to debase fiat currency.

[Cyberdyne]

The block reward will be halving ad infinitum? 1BTC -> 0.5 BTC -> 0.25 and so on?

Correction, the block reward will be halving ad 1/infinitum

[MR2]

It still rules out the deliberate easings that central banks use to debase fiat currency.

There is economical reason for it - not saying it is the best approach how it is handled nowadays, but you need to have some sort of control to counter-react in some circumstances. There will be always fraud but without that control many things would have much more impact, than they have now. Economics is nothing new, we have many years of experience what can happen in terms of currency; just because there is BTC does not mean, that we have to run into the same problems like before - people are starving because of such problems, people will die or lose everything. Are you from the US? Could you possible imagine what would happen with the US NOW, when there would be no regulation? What would've been happend some years back .. those subjects are not simple but they exist. Noone thought of them when inventing BTC ..

[Jcw188]

But does it make sense to actually end inflation entirely?  Why not just keep halving it and maintain a constant, albeit very low, inflation rate?  At some point won't there be way more "have nots" than "haves" and there'll be poor people, just like now with fiat?

[freakying99]

Unless people start paying transaction fees asap.

10 cents per transaction is enought, miners just need to include more transactions

[natd]

 What if nobody else wants to mine BTCs? No new blocks, no possibility of new transaction, right?

[operrajunk74]

What if nobody else wants to mine BTCs? No new blocks, no possibility of new transaction, right?

Right, but I doubt *nobody* will want to mine BTCs because of block reward halving