Website to follow McAfee's $1,000,000 model

[cellard]

McAfee claims that he has made some mathematical models to estimate the price of Bitcoin by $1,000,000 before December 31, 2020. On this interesting website, you can follow his model/bet and see if we are on track:

https://fnordprefekt.de/

If we are above the red line, or touching it, we are in good shape to reach the $1,000,000 prediction, if we go below, it would mean we are oversold, and therefore a good time to buy the dip. So far we are right on track after the big dip.

[1715013693]

1715013693

[xdrpx]

From looking at it in the first glance it looks like we've rebounded and have touched the tip of the prediction curve. Based on the model it looks like Bitcoin needs to grow at a rate of 0.484 % per day which may not be possible considering the current stangating price, but it could be possible that a future sharp rise in price could coverup the current small percentage growth or the dips. The only concern is that the curve being parabolic seems to get too steep at around year 2020 and I guess it looks like a huge difference to attach and to stay on track from there on. This makes me doubt how reliable or proven is this mathematical model. To be honest safer bets would be $50,000 or lower if at all a large estimate is to be made.

Also BTC accelerating much faster than his model, made him to bump up his next prediction, which is also kind of odd considering that it has fallen since then.

[eminemcookie]

if we go below, it would mean we are oversold, and therefore a good time to buy the dip.

That is assuming we buy in to the idea that bitcoin will reach $1m by the end of 2020. I'm not going to use that as my basis for deciding if bitcoin is under or oversold.

[richardsNY]

McAfee should stop making himself look like a clown -- the more he publicly speaks out, the more credibility he loses. I am already happy if we manage to reach the $50,000 level before then end of 2020, which is somewhat of a conservative estimate, but I realistically can't see the price end up reaching much higher than $100,000 by that time. Seriously, what developments before the end of 2020 will be able to justify a $1,000,000 valuation? I can't think of anything within such a short period of time -- we need a more reliable form of growth, not again empty bull runs that aren't holding their position for long. I strongly hope that if we ever reach the $1,000,000 milestone, it is somewhere between 2025-2030. It takes time to build an economy and ecosystem being worthy of such a valuation. That dude only cares about his investment and ignores the crucial aspects of a market in development....

[stompix]

Website to follow McAfee's $1,000,000 model

First reaction was.....yuck...porn!!!!

Now seriously, it's a parabolic curve. And it's a rather steep one.
The growth in the last month will be from around 875k to 1 million, more than 125k usd per coin in 30 days.

And, will it stop at that point?
Because in the next 3 months it's going to reach 1.5 millions, and by next year 5.8 millions and by next 34 millions.

[terrific]

Did anyone clicked the link? I'm not familiar with it and I'm skeptic on clicking it.
Anyway about McAfee's model, I'm not interested to know what type of model he is. He's no longer reliable with what he is saying.
There are other predictors who has sense with what they are saying.
Even without his words, I do believe that bitcoin will reach $1,000,000 soon whether it's on 2020 or longer.
Due to this, I prefer Tim Draper's speculation rather than his.

[timerland]

McAfee claims that he has made some mathematical models to estimate the price of Bitcoin by $1,000,000 before December 31, 2020. On this interesting website, you can follow his model/bet and see if we are on track:

https://fnordprefekt.de/

If we are above the red line, or touching it, we are in good shape to reach the $1,000,000 prediction, if we go below, it would mean we are oversold, and therefore a good time to buy the dip. So far we are right on track after the big dip.

As good as a $1 million bitcoin price may sound, it's just not going to happen.

He's assuming that bitcoin is going to exponentially grow in price for 3 years straight. That's absurd to ask. If given more time, and by more time, I mean at least 10-20 years, and adoption rate increases drastically, only then will we have a realistic shot at $1 million.

Ask even any bitcoin bulls. They'll say that parabolic growth like this is ultimately impossible.

Don't forget that McAfee is known for his $100k+ crypto tweets, he's doing all this to increase publicity.

[gentlemand]

If we are above the red line, or touching it, we are in good shape to reach the $1,000,000 prediction, if we go below, it would mean we are oversold, and therefore a good time to buy the dip. So far we are right on track after the big dip.

People are seriously going to trade based on this?

He's an even better huckster than I first thought if this idea has taken hold. I think he's rather more interested in the attention it got and the money he already got than it bearing any relation to realistic outcomes.

[magneto]

McAfee claims that he has made some mathematical models to estimate the price of Bitcoin by $1,000,000 before December 31, 2020. On this interesting website, you can follow his model/bet and see if we are on track:

https://fnordprefekt.de/

If we are above the red line, or touching it, we are in good shape to reach the $1,000,000 prediction, if we go below, it would mean we are oversold, and therefore a good time to buy the dip. So far we are right on track after the big dip.

Either he is delusional, or he's merely interested in trying to get as much media coverage as he possibly can before 2020, when he will be proven to be dead wrong.

I do hope that nobody gets misled by this. I too can draw up a random parabolic curve and say that we're currently on track of hitting $10 million per bitcoin by the end of 2020. There is absolutely no analysis that goes into this.

Plus, just thinking about this logically, is bitcoin's demand really going to go essentially 150x within the span of 3 years? I don't think that's happening. Inflation in 3 years is unlikely to go to these levels, yet.

[cellard]

McAfee should stop making himself look like a clown -- the more he publicly speaks out, the more credibility he loses. I am already happy if we manage to reach the $50,000 level before then end of 2020, which is somewhat of a conservative estimate, but I realistically can't see the price end up reaching much higher than $100,000 by that time. Seriously, what developments before the end of 2020 will be able to justify a $1,000,000 valuation? I can't think of anything within such a short period of time -- we need a more reliable form of growth, not again empty bull runs that aren't holding their position for long. I strongly hope that if we ever reach the $1,000,000 milestone, it is somewhere between 2025-2030. It takes time to build an economy and ecosystem being worthy of such a valuation. That dude only cares about his investment and ignores the crucial aspects of a market in development....

Bitcoin is perfectly capable of hosting $trillions worth of wealth on the blockchain today. The system will be the same today than tomorrow, than in 10+ years.. that's the whole point of Bitcoin, predictability. The hashrate is strong enough, the software is simple and robust. We don't need any further scaling, it is already a strong store of value. Inflation and global tension could very well put the price to 7 figures faster than we can imagine. Im not saying it will happen, im just posting a model for people to follow. So far, it's working. Even if the price continues dipping, it still could happen, just look at the data.

Did anyone clicked the link? I'm not familiar with it and I'm skeptic on clicking it.
Anyway about McAfee's model, I'm not interested to know what type of model he is. He's no longer reliable with what he is saying.
There are other predictors who has sense with what they are saying.
Even without his words, I do believe that bitcoin will reach $1,000,000 soon whether it's on 2020 or longer.
Due to this, I prefer Tim Draper's speculation rather than his.

The link is safe, I don't click on bullshit myself and i wouldn't post bullshit. It's a simple website with some graphics.

I also like Tim Draper's prediction, but im going to be paying attention to that website. It's not impossible. Bitcoin grows in massive boom and bursts cycles.

[magneto]

McAfee claims that he has made some mathematical models to estimate the price of Bitcoin by $1,000,000 before December 31, 2020. On this interesting website, you can follow his model/bet and see if we are on track:

https://fnordprefekt.de/

If we are above the red line, or touching it, we are in good shape to reach the $1,000,000 prediction, if we go below, it would mean we are oversold, and therefore a good time to buy the dip. So far we are right on track after the big dip.

It's a bold prediction for sure, especially when you are looking from the outside in in a bear market.

As you said, you never know how high bitcoin goes in a bull market. It's not impossible for McAfee's predictions to become reality, although, I'd say safely that the chances of it actually happening is very very low.

We haven't seen bitcoin go 100 fold in 2 years before, and I doubt it's going to happen straight after 2017's pumps have come to an end.

Ultimately, bitcoin will reach $1 million, no doubt. But McAfee's prediction is restricted by time, and I think that he may very well run out of time as inflation isn't really that big of a factor in a timespan like 2 years. And when BTC does hit that kind of figure, fiat would have depreciated by a lot.

[jseverson]

Anyway about McAfee's model, I'm not interested to know what type of model he is. He's no longer reliable with what he is saying.

He says he used point-set-topology:

https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/887039604846714881

...and that other math systems, which he didn't cite, also predict absurd numbers. I would honestly love McAfee to be right, but I'd probably be equally happy to see him eat his dick on live television (or you know, his excuse for being wrong and backing off), especially now that he's come out as a shill.

[talkbitcoin]

from what i have seen from this guy, McAfee is the pretty form of the same pump and dump groups that everyone steers clear of. and the more we pay attention to him the more he succeeds in his way of running his pump group and earning money.
wasn't it enough that he admitted he is receiving a lot of money to advertise ICOs?

[Denker]

McAfee claims that he has made some mathematical models to estimate the price of Bitcoin by $1,000,000 before December 31, 2020. On this interesting website, you can follow his model/bet and see if we are on track:

https://fnordprefekt.de/

If we are above the red line, or touching it, we are in good shape to reach the $1,000,000 prediction, if we go below, it would mean we are oversold, and therefore a good time to buy the dip. So far we are right on track after the big dip.

Hey nice catch.
So right now I can track on daily basis if McAfee will have to eat his dick or not. Wonderful!
But to be honest, I don't really care about the math model behind this prediction.
$1mio in three years would be just insane, we all know that. This is not going to happen.
Or does it count when he, let's say, buys a coin for $1mio on an exchange to avoid having to eat his willy?!

[cellard]

McAfee claims that he has made some mathematical models to estimate the price of Bitcoin by $1,000,000 before December 31, 2020. On this interesting website, you can follow his model/bet and see if we are on track:

https://fnordprefekt.de/

If we are above the red line, or touching it, we are in good shape to reach the $1,000,000 prediction, if we go below, it would mean we are oversold, and therefore a good time to buy the dip. So far we are right on track after the big dip.

It's a bold prediction for sure, especially when you are looking from the outside in in a bear market.

As you said, you never know how high bitcoin goes in a bull market. It's not impossible for McAfee's predictions to become reality, although, I'd say safely that the chances of it actually happening is very very low.

We haven't seen bitcoin go 100 fold in 2 years before, and I doubt it's going to happen straight after 2017's pumps have come to an end.

Ultimately, bitcoin will reach $1 million, no doubt. But McAfee's prediction is restricted by time, and I think that he may very well run out of time as inflation isn't really that big of a factor in a timespan like 2 years. And when BTC does hit that kind of figure, fiat would have depreciated by a lot.

Actually we did see 100 fold, back in 2013, with a media frenzy when BTC was approaching $1,000 that fueled that year’s “bubble”. In January of that year, one BTC was trading at around $15, went all the way up to $266 by April, and then crashed back to $50 within just days of reaching the peak. By November it had already reached $1,000, peaking at $1,242 (that is by mt gox prices). That’s an almost 100X increase in 11 months right there, an order of magnitude larger than last years 10-fold run up.

So when there's a new media frenzy and with all the infrastructure ready for big whales to get in, I don't see why not it's possible to do another x100 until Dec. 30 2020. The amount of fiat needed is still a drop in a sea of fiat out there.

[1Referee]

I don't see why not it's possible to do another x100 until Dec. 30 2020. The amount of fiat needed is still a drop in a sea of fiat out there.

Technically, it should be easier. If we take into consideration how people in current days are more willing to hold their coins than ever before, where on top of that we will see coin backed funds dry out this market further, the number of available on-market coins will be at an all time low. Everyone knows that selling coins is almost a guaranteed way to lose out, so people these days mostly refrain from doing that. In other words, we should be able to increase massively in the coming years, the only thing is that we don't know what multiplier that massive increase consists of, but it doesn't really matter; one way or another, we'll very likely be there eventually anyway. Time is everything we need, the rest is just ongoing progress.

[jseverson]

Actually we did see 100 fold, back in 2013, with a media frenzy when BTC was approaching $1,000 that fueled that year’s “bubble”. In January of that year, one BTC was trading at around $15, went all the way up to $266 by April, and then crashed back to $50 within just days of reaching the peak. By November it had already reached $1,000, peaking at $1,242 (that is by mt gox prices). That’s an almost 100X increase in 11 months right there, an order of magnitude larger than last years 10-fold run up.

So when there's a new media frenzy and with all the infrastructure ready for big whales to get in, I don't see why not it's possible to do another x100 until Dec. 30 2020. The amount of fiat needed is still a drop in a sea of fiat out there.

I don't discount the possibility of 100-fold increase at all because Bitcoin can break pretty much any and all expectations. I think the chance is pretty low though.

We know that coins with low market cap are much more vulnerable to pumps. If we think about it in absolute terms, an increase from $15 to $1000 is only an increase of $985 -- an amount that is likely to be dismissed as normal market fluctuation nowadays. I'm pretty sure the amount of money that had to flow into the market for an increase like that is still nothing compared to, let's say, $7k going to $19k.

Bitcoin was also arguably at its peak popularity last December when it reached its current all-time-high, and even then it couldn't even manage a 3-fold increase. The infrastructure you've cited is also a problem as the Lightning Network still looks far from ready for primetime, and its initial release barely created any buzz at all. 100x is probably possible within the next three years, but it's a long shot.

[cellard]

Actually we did see 100 fold, back in 2013, with a media frenzy when BTC was approaching $1,000 that fueled that year’s “bubble”. In January of that year, one BTC was trading at around $15, went all the way up to $266 by April, and then crashed back to $50 within just days of reaching the peak. By November it had already reached $1,000, peaking at $1,242 (that is by mt gox prices). That’s an almost 100X increase in 11 months right there, an order of magnitude larger than last years 10-fold run up.

So when there's a new media frenzy and with all the infrastructure ready for big whales to get in, I don't see why not it's possible to do another x100 until Dec. 30 2020. The amount of fiat needed is still a drop in a sea of fiat out there.

I don't discount the possibility of 100-fold increase at all because Bitcoin can break pretty much any and all expectations. I think the chance is pretty low though.

We know that coins with low market cap are much more vulnerable to pumps. If we think about it in absolute terms, an increase from $15 to $1000 is only an increase of $985 -- an amount that is likely to be dismissed as normal market fluctuation nowadays. I'm pretty sure the amount of money that had to flow into the market for an increase like that is still nothing compared to, let's say, $7k going to $19k.

Bitcoin was also arguably at its peak popularity last December when it reached its current all-time-high, and even then it couldn't even manage a 3-fold increase. The infrastructure you've cited is also a problem as the Lightning Network still looks far from ready for primetime, and its initial release barely created any buzz at all. 100x is probably possible within the next three years, but it's a long shot.

We don't need Bitcoin to reach all time highs in "popularity" in order to reach all time highs in price. We also don't really need the lightning network to be primed for mainstream use, in order to reach a 100-fold valuation. Do you think that the people that have the most money in this world are popular or have a problem paying 10 bucks for a fee? (and right now is cheap as hell).

I just don't see this fixation with needing to have the average joe involved in order for BTC to reach higher valuations. The infrastructure is already there. Big investors could buy trillions worth of BTC and their money would be safe, what does LN have to do with that?

LN is just a promising technology for the long term which may or not work out, but the digital gold features have been there ready to host heavyweight portfolios for a couple of years now.

[stompix]

Actually we did see 100 fold, back in 2013, with a media frenzy when BTC was approaching $1,000 that fueled that year’s “bubble”. In January of that year, one BTC was trading at around $15, went all the way up to $266 by April, and then crashed back to $50 within just days of reaching the peak. By November it had already reached $1,000, peaking at $1,242 (that is by mt gox prices). That’s an almost 100X increase in 11 months right there, an order of magnitude larger than last years 10-fold run up.

So when there's a new media frenzy and with all the infrastructure ready for big whales to get in, I don't see why not it's possible to do another x100 until Dec. 30 2020. The amount of fiat needed is still a drop in a sea of fiat out there.

I don't discount the possibility of 100-fold increase at all because Bitcoin can break pretty much any and all expectations. I think the chance is pretty low though.

We know that coins with low market cap are much more vulnerable to pumps. If we think about it in absolute terms, an increase from $15 to $1000 is only an increase of $985 -- an amount that is likely to be dismissed as normal market fluctuation nowadays. I'm pretty sure the amount of money that had to flow into the market for an increase like that is still nothing compared to, let's say, $7k going to $19k.

Bitcoin was also arguably at its peak popularity last December when it reached its current all-time-high, and even then it couldn't even manage a 3-fold increase. The infrastructure you've cited is also a problem as the Lightning Network still looks far from ready for primetime, and its initial release barely created any buzz at all. 100x is probably possible within the next three years, but it's a long shot.

We don't need Bitcoin to reach all time highs in "popularity" in order to reach all time highs in price. We also don't really need the lightning network to be primed for mainstream use, in order to reach a 100-fold valuation. Do you think that the people that have the most money in this world are popular or have a problem paying 10 bucks for a fee? (and right now is cheap as hell).

I just don't see this fixation with needing to have the average joe involved in order for BTC to reach higher valuations. The infrastructure is already there. Big investors could buy trillions worth of BTC and their money would be safe, what does LN have to do with that?

LN is just a promising technology for the long term which may or not work out, but the digital gold features have been there ready to host heavyweight portfolios for a couple of years now.

So bottom line, let the billionaires invest in the coin, raise the prices to the roof...mission accomplished.

Forget about cheap fees, forget about not having to go through a 3rd party even when you buy a can of soda at the store, forget about sending money to every corner of this world for a small fee.
Do you think they would buy trillions of something it has little to no use in the current world?
Why shouldn't they buy doge or birdcoin or honeymilkcrapcoin to keep their money ? The principle is the same.

One year of 10-20$ fee per tx you can kiss that graph goodbye.
It's not "billionaires" that bitcoin needs, it's adoption.
If you turn it into an investment with no RL day to day usage you can also turn the power off for it has failed.

[marcuslong]

from what i have seen from this guy, McAfee is the pretty form of the same pump and dump groups that everyone steers clear of. and the more we pay attention to him the more he succeeds in his way of running his pump group and earning money.
wasn't it enough that he admitted he is receiving a lot of money to advertise ICOs?

I think this guy is one of those whales who technically played with bitcoin's price, that's we've experienced roller coaster situation nowadays. Even if he admitted receiving money from lots of advertised ICOs, there's no way for us to stop this guy, because he's so fortunate now and had more assets that we are. We should hope that the popularity of bitcoin will rise again so that whales could take over the peak price and the whales again will help the price to pump, because its a great opportunity for the smaller fish to catch their profit.

However, controlling everyone's emotions depends on how they understand the real scenario. If they always remain in chaos while the price started to declined quickly it won't help gain confidence holding for a long time. That's why if you decide of dumping your coins quickly, well certainly you lose it and emotional stress can be your worst enemy if a trader couldn't move on. You might see the price to gain its profitable value after all because eventually it will develop its momentum after the dumping price, yet the reality really proves it since last year's experiences.