I was expecting that after the exchanges and bitcoin holders pay their taxes at the United States of America Treasury there will be no more huge dump at the exchanges just to pay their taxes in dollars. This could mean that we will have a more stable value of bitcoin at 8k$ this month and also if there will be a good demand to bitcoin the resistance that holds bitcoin down is much lesser. Hope to see bitcoin recover this April.
Your reasoning is good, and I haven't seen a good analysis on this, but I think that the power of the whales outpowers the power of small investors. So it will be - whatever they need.
This shows how exactly centralized Bitcoin is.