ugh, timing the market isn't worth the trouble

[kellrobinson]

I succeded in making a little money today by selling 7.5 bitcoins and then buying 7.5 bitcoins at a lower price (I traded on coinbase.com).
But I had to tie up several thousand dollars for several days to do it.  The return was okay, about 2.5% over the time the capital is tied up but that's only because the trade succeeded -- it well might not have.  And bitcoin goes up so fast historically that it's something like 5% a week, long term, without any trading at all -- just buying and holding.  So I don't think I'm going to be making any more short term trades between btc and fiat, it's just too slow, and you have to tie up too much capital, not to mention keep an eye on the ticker all the time.
Better to buy and hold; if you want to do day trading, do it all in crypto.

[Siegfried]

Indeed.

[sushi]

Depends on how you look at it, but even you made $30 USD extra a day,5 days a week x 48 week, you'll have $7,200 USD and may be more on top of your regular investment and salary from your day job!

As the market is open 24/7, more chance to to make more $$$

Good Luck!!!

[SlipperySlope]

Gox charges about half of one percent per trade, so a round trip costs about 1 percent of the timiing-motivated trade. Furthermore, the bid/ask spread also subtracts from round-trip profit. Even a good mechanical trading system such as trend-following moving averages is more about protecting capital from downdrafts than beating buy-and-hold. Lucky those folks trading on BTC China with a temporary suspension of trading fees.

After surrendering a substantial amount of my coins to gox fees, I am through with timing and resigned to buy more immediately and hold in an offline paper wallet for at least 48 months.

[sushi]

agree!  How long China will suspend the trading fee?

[SlipperySlope]

agree!  How long China will suspend the trading fee?

Here is an article ... http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-exchange-btc-china-eliminates-trading-fees/

I recall somewhere that BTC China still makes money with a fiat withdrawal fee.

[piramida]

Depends on how you look at it, but even you made $30 USD extra a day,5 days a week x 48 week, you'll have $7,200 USD and may be more on top of your regular investment and salary from your day job!

As the market is open 24/7, more chance to to make more $$$

Good Luck!!!

yeah and of course there's never ever going to be negative trades!

[Wilhelm]

Depends on how you look at it, but even you made $30 USD extra a day,5 days a week x 48 week, you'll have $7,200 USD and may be more on top of your regular investment and salary from your day job!

As the market is open 24/7, more chance to to make more $$$

Good Luck!!!

Risk/Reward is too low... Greed can become a killer... 

[barbs]

I've lost so many btc also trying to do this, and gained a handful of times vs lost.

That being said it is tempting especially if you see a real opportunity like last night's climb to 445 - a rebuy at 407 put me back at bitstamp prices and clearly I can't help myself.

My real mistake is trading with too much % of my btc, if I had kept it to only 20% or so I'd be much much more well off today.

[tutkarz]

to me it's really no difference if I would have in a year or five 1 mil or 1.5mil $
that's why I just hold bitcoins and continue to create site that accepts them. that should benefit everybody.

[deepceleron]

I succeded in making a little money today by selling 7.5 bitcoins and then buying 7.5 bitcoins at a lower price (I traded on coinbase.com).
But I had to tie up several thousand dollars for several days to do it.

You just made 2.5x what holding a 1-year CD at a bank will earn you in those few days. In a market with 5% volatility in hours you can make this much pretty easily as long as you recognize the risk of getting locked in for a potentially long time if your BTC position goes down.

[crazy_rabbit]

Depends on how you look at it, but even you made $30 USD extra a day,5 days a week x 48 week, you'll have $7,200 USD and may be more on top of your regular investment and salary from your day job!

As the market is open 24/7, more chance to to make more $$$

Good Luck!!!

As the market is open 24/7, more chance to to LOSE more $$$

Fixed.

[Kiaya]

I'm wondering about this too. Wide spreads and loads of slippage are also not helping.

[Syke]

Better to buy and hold

Very good advice. Bitcoin is where Berkshire Hathaway was at in 1980. Look at it now. A moderate Bitcoin investment now could be astronomical in 30 years.

[laowai80]

Too many people are waiting for a correction to buy lower, exactly the reason it just ain't gonna happen yet.

[MoreFun]

Too many people are waiting for a correction to buy lower, exactly the reason it just ain't gonna happen yet.

It will happen. You know when? When those waiting for a correction will give up and start buying.

[byronbb]

All markets are almost impossible to trade in short time-frames, bitcoin perhaps the worst.

[laowai80]

Too many people are waiting for a correction to buy lower, exactly the reason it just ain't gonna happen yet.

It will happen. You know when? When those waiting for a correction will give up and start buying.

Yes, not yet, but eventually it will happen. Well, just keep some powder dry to buy at lower prices

[DrGregMulhauser]

I succeded in making a little money today by selling 7.5 bitcoins and then buying 7.5 bitcoins at a lower price...

Why not hedge the naked short BTC position with a simultaneous long in futures? The naked short left you at risk of a clobbering, had BTC risen. Buying futures while shorting BTC offers at least some protection against that outcome, while the leverage of futures provides a relatively straightforward way of limiting the corresponding loss on that side should BTC fall really nicely.

(Alternatively, rather than risking a big chunk of capital, a short future could offer a similar level of gain without so much initial commitment, again due to their leverage.)

[massivebitman]

Mate, I've been guilty of trying this.. I know it's bad, I lose at it, yet I keep rolling the dice essentially gambling with my BTC.

Offline wallet is definitely the way to go. If I never played the trading game I'd be $35,000USD richer. I hate gambling, you'll never see me put down $100 on anything but poker at the casino. But for some reason I'm willing to throw away my BTC as soon as the lights start flashing on bitcoinity. In short I've got a gambling problem.

I hate it, because everytime I buy back in higher, it makes me more vulnerable to a drop, to the point where I might actually be losing money by holding BTC. I used to top up my BTC by depositing more money in, now at these rates I just can't afford to. $1k is only 2BTC! Ludicrous. My BTC is dwindling and I'll never make it back

Despite what you think, there's no way to predict what will happen.

Trading = Gambling

It's addictive. Don't do it. Buy and hold is the only way to go.