James Rickards: Trump Will Use the “Nuclear Option” on Trade

[allthingsluxury]

What we have seen so far are just the opening shots of the coming trade war. Think of it as the Battles of Lexington and Concord that opened the Revolutionary War. Much larger tariffs and penalties are waiting in the wings.

Trump will soon receive a report under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. That report has been almost a year in preparation and will reveal that China has stolen over $1 trillion in U.S. intellectual property.

Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 is the “nuclear option” when it comes to trade wars.

I don’t want to get too deeply in the weeds here, but Section 301 gives the president broad authority to impose sanctions and penalties. The president will have a completely free hand to impose billions of dollars of damages if not more on China.


Click here to watch this video and to read more:

https://jimrickards.blogspot.ca/2018/04/james-rickards-trump-will-use-nuclear.html

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[Hydrogen]

I haven't given the US vs China "trade war" much thought.

Initially, I'm thinking the USA representing the largest consumer market in the world gives it a significant advantage over china. The US doesn't necessarily need china to supply goods. There are suppliers that are geographically nearer to the USA who could ship goods over shorter distances incurring shorter travel penalties along with projecting a smaller carbon footprint on decreased fuel consumption. Savings in shipping and fuel could be enough to offset whatever advantages china once had. Chinese labor is more expensive these days and doesn't necessarily represent a quantum leap of an advantage which lured investors there initially.

China could be disadvantaged in that it needs the US consumer market to buy a significant percentage of its goods. China lacks other options or a "plan B". China needs the USA but the USA doesn't necessarily need china which could mean china has already lost this "trade war" before the first shot has been fired.

One might compare it to walmart not needing middle men in their supply to distribution chain which allowed them to eliminate non essentials in their business model abstract. Suppliers needed walmart and lacked alternatives. On the flipside walmart didn't need suppliers. This gave walmart all the leverage they needed to restructure things in a way better suited to them.

These are my initial thoughts... I haven't thought about it much and could be wrong.

[allthingsluxury]

Regardless of whether you think about it or not, it is going to think about you, and the economy as a whole. Trouble is brewing.

[richardsNY]

Regardless of whether you think about it or not, it is going to think about you, and the economy as a whole. Trouble is brewing.

Trouble has been brewing consistently throughout the years, where in this case we might be another step closer to a total form of economical chaos, but it isn't more than the next step. On the other hand, we shouldn't exaggerate the situation to the extent the mainstream media is doing it. Governments keep barking back and forth pretending to be a big deal, while under that seemingly aggressive upper layer hides a scared puppy just trying to do what's best for itself. I however find it more worrying that governments commit horrendous crimes through proxy wars to discredit the other side, and for what? Just to nurse their ego and justify actions and sanctions, which is pathetic to the core....

[Argoo]

Everyone knows that China steals intellectual property, various technical innovations or simply copies at its own discretion various techniques. It is on this that China has recently risen in the development of its economy. Perhaps, a tough trade war between the US and China will still happen, Trump can take appropriate appropriate measures in this respect. And how will this affect the crypto currency? Then it is not profitable for China to issue its centralized crypto currency, it will be convenient for the country to hide behind the usual decentralized if the US introduces various trade sanctions.

[aksay79]

Everyone knows that China steals intellectual property, various technical innovations or simply copies at its own discretion various techniques. It is on this that China has recently risen in the development of its economy. Perhaps, a tough trade war between the US and China will still happen, Trump can take appropriate appropriate measures in this respect. And how will this affect the crypto currency? Then it is not profitable for China to issue its centralized crypto currency, it will be convenient for the country to hide behind the usual decentralized if the US introduces various trade sanctions.

china is a country with a strong economy, crypto become part of big investors that have been in use china,
crypto will decrease if this country got problem

[Bardman]

Everyone knows that China steals intellectual property, various technical innovations or simply copies at its own discretion various techniques. It is on this that China has recently risen in the development of its economy. Perhaps, a tough trade war between the US and China will still happen, Trump can take appropriate appropriate measures in this respect. And how will this affect the crypto currency? Then it is not profitable for China to issue its centralized crypto currency, it will be convenient for the country to hide behind the usual decentralized if the US introduces various trade sanctions.

china is a country with a strong economy, crypto become part of big investors that have been in use china,
crypto will decrease if this country got problem

I think we are past that point. The market doesn't care that much about specific countries, look at india ban or poland insane regulations, it didn't really drag the price down. We have had so much FUD from china since bitcoin started trading that at this point people just do not care.

[parobber]

Everyone knows that China steals intellectual property, various technical innovations or simply copies at its own discretion various techniques. It is on this that China has recently risen in the development of its economy. Perhaps, a tough trade war between the US and China will still happen, Trump can take appropriate appropriate measures in this respect. And how will this affect the crypto currency? Then it is not profitable for China to issue its centralized crypto currency, it will be convenient for the country to hide behind the usual decentralized if the US introduces various trade sanctions.

china is a country with a strong economy, crypto become part of big investors that have been in use china,
crypto will decrease if this country got problem

I think we are past that point. The market doesn't care that much about specific countries, look at india ban or poland insane regulations, it didn't really drag the price down. We have had so much FUD from china since bitcoin started trading that at this point people just do not care.

You're right, the majority of people are far beyond the point of paying too much attention to what China are doing in regards to cryptocurrency because they've shown they are erratic and will backtrack time and again. On China stealing intellectual property, I think in a few decades time it will be the norm and there will be little in the way of regulation to prevent it, the laws are already easily circumvented, so much so that I feel in time they'll cease to exist.

[Hydrogen]

Regardless of whether you think about it or not, it is going to think about you, and the economy as a whole. Trouble is brewing.

I think we've all known that since 2008.  

The question is how events will unfold and what the fallout will be. How do you see events panning out?  

Here's another thread in this section on china's theft of patented/copyrighted/intellectual property/industrial processes/etcetera:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3318614

I think the european union, japan and the united states were all planning to file a joint WTO complaint against china for similar things. Some have said its impossible for the united states to lose a trade war with china when our trade deficit with them is measured in the hundred of billions of dollars range(I think its between 300 and 400 billion iirc).

[squatz1]

While people think this is actaully going to happen, it's going to end with nothing happening. This is being used as a bargaining chip by the United States in a way to get the Chinese to change their stance on intellectual property theft, tarrifs on goods from around the world, and so on and so forth. The United States is in a wonderful position when it comes to fighting for things like this.

They'll be fine, this is just a little freaky for people.

[rehydrogenated]

To me this just seems like a political opportunity for the greedy people in power in both countries to protect their crony industries. Also, many of the companies on both sides, like steel manufacturing, seem to be owned by the same groups. It doesn't matter whether they are in China or the US. So they managed to increase steel prices (and profits!) in both countries at the expense of everyone else. And they probably give the politicians a nice vacation on a yacht and a nice donation or whatever. Protectionism is always this way. Just because you call it a "trade war" doesn't mean countries haven't been doing this exact same thing since the dawn of civilization.

[parobber]

To me this just seems like a political opportunity for the greedy people in power in both countries to protect their crony industries. Also, many of the companies on both sides, like steel manufacturing, seem to be owned by the same groups. It doesn't matter whether they are in China or the US. So they managed to increase steel prices (and profits!) in both countries at the expense of everyone else. And they probably give the politicians a nice vacation on a yacht and a nice donation or whatever. Protectionism is always this way. Just because you call it a "trade war" doesn't mean countries haven't been doing this exact same thing since the dawn of civilization.

That's a very good point, in a loose sense it could be looked at as a high level intelligent version of collusion. It almost reminds me of house of cards in a way. Someone always wants something and you can always use that in a way to manipulate them so both of you are winners.

[LemonF3]

What we have seen so far are just the opening shots of the coming trade war. Think of it as the Battles of Lexington and Concord that opened the Revolutionary War. Much larger tariffs and penalties are waiting in the wings.

Trump will soon receive a report under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. That report has been almost a year in preparation and will reveal that China has stolen over $1 trillion in U.S. intellectual property.

Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 is the “nuclear option” when it comes to trade wars.

I don’t want to get too deeply in the weeds here, but Section 301 gives the president broad authority to impose sanctions and penalties. The president will have a completely free hand to impose billions of dollars of damages if not more on China.


Click here to watch this video and to read more:

https://jimrickards.blogspot.ca/2018/04/james-rickards-trump-will-use-nuclear.html

What is the purpose of doing so? I do not think it is a war between the two countries but its a war for the protection of their personal intentions. Using the power to protect their business.