Kazimir (OP)
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November 14, 2013, 01:31:03 PM |
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Considering the novelty and nature of Bitcoin and the promises it holds for the future, versus human psychology and greed which currently controls the trading market, I expect two things:
1. At some point, we'll get a crash
2. In the long term, Bitcoin will rise far, far higher than current rates
When rates start rising extremely quickly, like they did back in 2011, in April, and like they're doing now, more and more people are getting nervous. Whether this makes 'sense' or not doesn't matter, psychology and greed is essentially what controls the price or causes a rise or fall.
Bitcoin rates have been rising extremely fast lately. For very good reasons: tons of Chinese stepping into Bitcoin, market acceptance growing every day, more and more media attention, etc.
However, I think one importent thing that saved us from another crash so far, is the fact that the market is now more diverse. It used to be mainly MtGox and the USD/BTC rate that mattered. Now there's also Bitstamp, to a lesser extent Btc-E, and especially the CNY/BTC trading on BTC China.
When getting close to round numbers like $350, $400, etc, we always see some resistance, or a steady 'sell wall'. What may have helped is for example while MtGox was struggling against a $350 wall, China just kept on ploughing between 2100 - 2200 CNY, and vice versa.
But now, possibly within a few days, 500 USD and 3000 CNY appear at the horizon simultaneously. These are both very strong psychological hurdles. People have made astronomical profits in very short time, and at least part of them will want to cash out or 'secure' part of their investment. Because both the USD and CNY markets are now running into a hurdle at the same time, this may have a big impact. Once panic starts with both currencies (USD and CNY) simultaneously, shit's gonna hit the fan.
Furthermore, there are now LOTS of newcomers in the market. People who barely understand or appreciate Bitcoin, but just look at the graphs and see this as some magic money making trading mechanism.
My prediction: when getting near 500 USD and 3000 CNY, people are gonna start taking profit, huge sell walls will appear at the major exchanges, panic will arise, mass sell offs, and rates are gonna crash similar to April and 2011.
The good news: of course this is only temporary, nothing withstands the enormous promises that Bitcoin holds for the future, and we may see $1000+ in 2014.
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Kazimir (OP)
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November 14, 2013, 01:35:03 PM |
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Oh, one more thing. First crash was around $32. Second crash was $234 higher (around $266). So logically, the third crash will be...  |
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Ivanhoe
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November 14, 2013, 01:38:08 PM |
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Around 1870?
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gwoplock
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November 14, 2013, 01:40:59 PM |
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Oh, one more thing. First crash was around $32. Second crash was $234 higher (around $266). So logically, the third crash will be... what ~498  |
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Kazimir (OP)
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November 14, 2013, 01:42:31 PM |
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Oh, one more thing. First crash was around $32. Second crash was $234 higher (around $266). So logically, the third crash will be... what ~498 Well, actually 234+266 = exactly 500, but close enough  (no, seriously, this 'math support' is nonsense of course, but I'm serious about the psychological factors at play near $500 / ￥3000) |
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gwoplock
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November 14, 2013, 01:45:09 PM |
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How low will the price go?
i think it will go down to about 150 |
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Miz4r
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November 14, 2013, 01:46:37 PM |
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Oh, one more thing. First crash was around $32. Second crash was $234 higher (around $266). So logically, the third crash will be... $553? Taking into account that the $32 and $266 bubble are 2 years apart, and the current bubble and $266 bubble only 0.5 years. So that would make (266/32*0.25)*266 = $553 (rounded up)  |
Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
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Kazimir (OP)
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November 14, 2013, 01:48:43 PM |
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i think it will go down to about 150
The other two crashes dropped down about 70%, so from 500 that would be 150, indeed. No idea of this (or any) logic applies here |
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gwoplock
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November 14, 2013, 01:49:30 PM |
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Oh, one more thing. First crash was around $32. Second crash was $234 higher (around $266). So logically, the third crash will be... $553? Taking into account that the $32 and $266 bubble are 2 years apart, and the current bubble and $266 bubble only 0.5 years. So that would make (266/32*0.25)*266 = $553 (rounded up) +1 |
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Kazimir (OP)
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November 14, 2013, 01:49:41 PM |
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Oh, one more thing. First crash was around $32. Second crash was $234 higher (around $266). So logically, the third crash will be... $553? Taking into account that the $32 and $266 bubble are 2 years apart, and the current bubble and $266 bubble only 0.5 years. So that would make (266/32*0.25)*266 = $553 (rounded up) Correct, sir, very sharp. I suggest you hold your coins until around $550 |
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SlipperySlope
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November 14, 2013, 01:58:23 PM |
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The market shook off yesterday's 10% correction, and while watching it I seemed to me that neither are the buyers exhausted yet, nor are the large sellers successful in signalling each other that this is the big one, i.e. the collapse.
I think we go much higher and faster before a collapse. But I am buying more today regardless because I have faith that prices in 2014 will average well over $1,000.
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Ibian
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November 14, 2013, 02:16:40 PM |
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No crash. Not a real one, just corrections of different scales. The Gox thing can't happen again since we now have multiple exchanges, SR strengthened faith in the currency. It would take something new, and huge, to crash things at this point.
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Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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uMMcQxCWELNzkt
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November 14, 2013, 02:17:05 PM |
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The market shook off yesterday's 10% correction, and while watching it I seemed to me that neither are the buyers exhausted yet, nor are the large sellers successful in signalling each other that this is the big one, i.e. the collapse.
I think we go much higher and faster before a collapse. But I am buying more today regardless because I have faith that prices in 2014 will average well over $1,000.
I also feel that the market seems to be far more confident in Bitcoin and the brief correction indicates a boost in confidence perhaps to a greater extent than any bubble/rally could. People, I hope, are starting to realise that if they buy Bitcoin now, as long as they don't do anything stupid over the short term like panic sell those Bitcoins will quickly rise again and surpass the previous value, at least over the long term. I am not sure we should be comparing other crashes to the present as so many factors have changed, however if enough people don't factor those changes into their buy/sell strategy then I guess they become irrelevant. |
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lucaspm98
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November 14, 2013, 02:17:14 PM |
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I think you're right. There will probably be a correction to account for the massive recent rise, but it will not affect the price in the long run and we will be breaking records again shortly afterwards.
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zeroday
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November 14, 2013, 02:27:28 PM |
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Not crash. It will be yet another BEAR TRAP and it will last a day if not just hours. I won't even sell for speculation as it will be real risk to be trapped with all the bears.
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Rygon
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November 14, 2013, 02:35:32 PM |
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It is very interesting that 500 USD ~= 3000 CNY. Definitely agree with this analysis. Should be interesting at that point.
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BTCtrader71
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November 14, 2013, 03:55:37 PM |
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Oh, one more thing. First crash was around $32. Second crash was $234 higher (around $266). So logically, the third crash will be... $553? Taking into account that the $32 and $266 bubble are 2 years apart, and the current bubble and $266 bubble only 0.5 years. So that would make (266/32*0.25)*266 = $553 (rounded up) Wouldn't you want to model using an exponential? Like this: Peak = 32 * (266/32) ^ (T/2) = 32 * 8.3125 ^ (T/2) where T = the time in years from the 32 peak, so if I check my math we have: at T=0, peak = 32; at T=2, Peak = 32 * 8.3125 = 266; and at T=2.5, peak equals, ummm, 2.5/2 = 1.25 so let me plug 32 * 8.3125 ^ 1.25 into google and I get, ummm, .... 451.66!!! OMG gox is at 440, THE CRASH IS IMMINENT!!! lol .... |
BTC: 14oTcy1DNEXbcYjzPBpRWV11ZafWxNP8EU
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BTCtrader71
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November 14, 2013, 04:06:13 PM |
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$553? Taking into account that the $32 and $266 bubble are 2 years apart, and the current bubble and $266 bubble only 0.5 years. So that would make (266/32*0.25)*266 = $553 (rounded up) I don't think that equation works. I assume you calculated 0.25 in your equation from 0.5/2. So if we were (hypothetically) talking about a bubble in June 2013, which would be 2 months past the 266 peak instead of 6 months, you would calculate (266/32 * 0.0833 ) * 266 = $184, A bubble one month after the 266 would be $92, half a month after would be $46, etc. These numbers wouldn't make sense. |
BTC: 14oTcy1DNEXbcYjzPBpRWV11ZafWxNP8EU
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gwoplock
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November 14, 2013, 04:32:08 PM |
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Oh, one more thing. First crash was around $32. Second crash was $234 higher (around $266). So logically, the third crash will be... $553? Taking into account that the $32 and $266 bubble are 2 years apart, and the current bubble and $266 bubble only 0.5 years. So that would make (266/32*0.25)*266 = $553 (rounded up) Wouldn't you want to model using an exponential? Like this: Peak = 32 * (266/32) ^ (T/2) = 32 * 8.3125 ^ (T/2) where T = the time in years from the 32 peak, so if I check my math we have: at T=0, peak = 32; at T=2, Peak = 32 * 8.3125 = 266; and at T=2.5, peak equals, ummm, 2.5/2 = 1.25 so let me plug 32 * 8.3125 ^ 1.25 into google and I get, ummm, .... 451.66!!! OMG gox is at 440, THE CRASH IS IMMINENT!!! lol .... im ready |
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theecoinomist
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November 14, 2013, 04:49:48 PM |
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No crash. Not a real one, just corrections of different scales. The Gox thing can't happen again since we now have multiple exchanges, SR strengthened faith in the currency. It would take something new, and huge, to crash things at this point.
ye that's my impression as well.. a 80% crash seems so unlikely, last weekend buy-support came in after 25-30% drop if I'm right. |
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