CLOSED: [WTS] Chainsaw's 100 BTC Casacius Holo Error - Active Mintage of only 18

[Chainsaw]

This piece has sold and is no longer available.

Up for sale is one of 18 remaining 100 BTC 'Casacius' holo error bars in existence. (The repeating text in the background of the hologram is misspelled as CASACIUS instead of CASASCIUS.) Other offerings are enumerated here.

Asking Price: Negotiable 400BTC 340 349 360 400 420 450 500

Because of the format of this specie (Casascius offering), it is not able to be graded by ANACS.

As for provenance, this particular coin came directly from Casascius to an investor that immediately sealed it in plastic and safe-stored it.
From there, ownership has transferred to myself, where it has remained sealed and stored.
I fully expect any interested buyer will have a number of conversations before a sale is made. Interested parties are welcome to PM me with any questions, or just ask them here.

The front:


The back:


Proof of ownership (I forgot to include this in the other pics - sorry!)


For historical price comparisons, and possibly other same-offerings at lower prices, check the Bitcoin Collectible Marketplace thread.

Here's a link specifically to my other offerings.

List of all Active Version 1 100 BTC
Link showing coin balance

At most, 57 100 BTC bars with the holo error were ever made.
Of those, only 18 remain Active - the rest have been redeemed.
Note that this Mintage is significantly lower (about 50 times lower!) than the 1 BTC holo errors.
This mintage is also lower (by about 12x) than the 5 BTC holo errors, of which there may be up to 600.

The relative rarity is greater still than the numbers given above, since only 18 remain.
Note the tendency for greater redemption percentages as denominations rise. This can only add further relative scarcity as time passes.
You can compare this coin's Mintage to other mintages in the Collectible Marketplace.

I warmly invite your purchases, offers, and competitive offerings.  
Each data point lowers the barrier to entry into this collectible marketplace, allowing it to grow.

Happy shopping, and by all means, if there are any questions I've left unanswered, feel free to ask below.

-Chainsaw

[1715006033]

1715006033

[1715006033]

1715006033

[Chainsaw]

I've skipped bumping this posting the last few price drops. I'm unlikely to bring the ask down in the near future, so I figured this one was worth a bump.
I've got other offerings, both graded and NG holo errors, listed here.

[steelboy]

I love to collect stuff but I think I am going to accept that this one is not coming my way

[miffman]

Umm..400 BTC? ~ $188000?? I am very interested to see who will buy this  

[r3animation]

Umm..400 BTC? ~ $18800?? I am very interested to see who will buy this 

I think you missed a zero in there.

[Chainsaw]

This rally is in full-on mania/esctatic phase.
It is possible I'm wrong on this (or it wouldn't be a speculative investment) - but I maintain the belief that once Bitcoin re-emerges as a long-term, legitimate currency, whose future is well established, and the collectible Bitcoin market firmly establishes itself as persistent, with a demonstrated premium...that it will draw the attention of high net worth individuals.

Right now, we are seeing premiums, in terms of BTC, decreasing on pieces.
I ain't buying it. I hold the opinion that investments are measured relative to the commodity upon which they are based.
Now, that is not yet the popular opinion.
This is evidenced by seeing more sellers than buyers, to a rather substantial degree, in the collectible marketplace.

I feel this is a mistake! I envision these prices BTC premiums decreasing now...but that they will re-increase, in terms of BTC, once the market is established.

The emotional toll is inversely related to the emotions caused in the market in general - fear and greed.
When BTC prices are on the rise, greed drives the spot BTC market.  When prices go down, fear drives decisions.

Right now, because we are still inventing and defining how the collectible marketplace will behave, there is not a precedent. So we are making it up as we go.

The fear in the collectible marketplace is - "wait a minute, people might not pay the same BTC premium. I better sell and convert to Bitcoins."

The reason I ramped up my efforts on the marketplace was to try to demonstrate, through the buying and selling actions of the marketplace itself, that this behavior is not correct. That for premium collectibles to remain a legitimate investment, the premiums must remain based on BTC. Otherwise, people would be better off buying spot BTC.

I could be dead wrong on all this, and lose a lot of BTC as a result.  But I see this premium-dip as an error that will be corrected in the future.
And I'm trying to get that message out, so that people sitting on gold mines don't cash it out for a tiny gain.

My few attempts to explain this have failed. It might be because I'm dead wrong. But it also might be because I haven't yet found the right way to explain it. It's definitely a tricky concept. I've been thinking on it for over a year, and only in the last month have been able to even try to express it.  (I like trying to equate it to the gold and gold coin market, or the diamond market. Each has premium, high-end collectibles, whose value is tied to the value of their base commodity (gold or diamond), not USD. The premium value tracks along with the base-commodity value. Here's an example using the St. Gauden's pieces. Gold sells for $1300/oz. Check the insane prices on the highest end collectibles. 

So why am I putting this all in my 100 BTC bar thread?

There are two target markets for a piece like this: early investors, and new HNWI looking to speculatively invest in Bitcoin.

I'm seriously considering putting this particular piece up as a fancy-pants auction on Ebay.
If I do that, it is highly likely that a wealthy investor, new to Bitcoins, will be the buyer.
Not one of the community that has been around, and invested in Bitcoins, since the early days.

So this is a heads up.  I've got this piece offered right now, but will probably be pulling it in a day or so, possibly short term, possibly for good.
It's 1 of 18 in existence. If the premium collectible marketplace takes off, it should command a far more substantial premium than 4x in the long run.  If it does not, that premium will be lost.  That's the speculation, plain and simple. Nobody knows the outcome for sure, or the price would be well-established.

Serious buyers, feel free to shoot me a message (or ten).
I've got a few other premium pieces potentially available as well.

If and when I decide to pull it, I'll update the asking price portion accordingly, noting the piece is not currently available.

[Chainsaw]

I've lowered the asking price on this as well as all my other collectible Casascius offerings - most graded, some not.
Here's a link to my other listings.
Here's a link to the collectible marketplace thread..

[CrypticBits]

Sorry for going offtopic, but why did you clutter the forum with 8 seperate topics instead of just posting everything in 1 topic?

[Chainsaw]

I could certainly lump things together if that is more standard or convenient.

I was trying to keep things cleaner by letting valuation discussions, offers, and such remain focused on each individual item.  And it's not my normal intent to drop prices on all the pieces at once, so seeing 6 show up at once is not something I expect to happen too often.  

But the biggest reason of all, because a lot of these pieces are the first collectible of their type being offered, I am expecting their price valuation preceding the sale to take a fair amount of time. That holds the most true for this piece, the 100 BTC bar.  I sold one for 340 BTC. That represented a first guess at valuation, both on my part as seller and on the private buyer's part.  I had hoped the listings could be a place for people to argue over the true value. (Though usually they say 'it's worth more' by buying it. But still, the 'it's too high, it should be xxx' could help dial in where we think market prices are for each of the pieces.

Is there a clear-cut protocol on this? I'll happily switch over the way I post future offerings if there is.

[scotjam]

I think if you're selling a ton of small things, lumping together is just good practice. People browsing the forums don't want to be inundated with 50 small pieces of merchandise from one seller that are not relevant to them.

On the other hand, if you're selling 6-7 items that are worth thousands of dollars each (potentially ranging up to hundreds of thousands) and that are highly relevant / interesting to most people who visit the forums *and* they stimulate discussion, I think as long as bump frequency is not ridiculous you *should* have separate threads for each item.

However this is off-topic, and is just my 2c

I'm really interested to see if this sells. Is the intention to stop reducing the price at a particular "reserve level" that is significantly above 100, or are you planning to keep going down in price even to close to face value; or alternatively if you do permanently pull it and list it on eBay would you list it on eBay as an auction or as a "Buy it now"?

scotjam

[Chainsaw]

Your thoughts about when to split vs. lump mirror my own, thank you. I'll probably take that approach unless someone else adds an opposing viewpoint with a compelling counterargument.

Having already sold 1 (of the 18 Active 100 BTC holo errors) and established a stake in the ground for market price (340 BTC), I'm not terribly eager to sell this one. 
I speculate that years from now, the following changes will have occurred:
-The spot value of a Bitcoin will be at least one order of magnitude larger than it is today, more likely two.
-While the number of people knowledgable and using Bitcoin will have increased orders of magnitude, the supply of these collectibles will remain fixed.
-As these items price themselves out of the market of the masses, they move into an investment reserved only for high net worth individuals.
-Premiums will remain fixed in terms of BTC and not USD, with the relative size of the BTC premium increasing or decreasing based on relatives changes in demand in a particular piece.

For example, a 1 BTC holo error selling for 5 BTC when Bitcoins were at $5 did not have a $25 premium attached. If they did, today they would be selling for 1.03 BTC.

But amidst this rapid price increase for the spot value of Bitcoin, people are applying the wrong price valuation model, thinking the price remains fixed in Bitcoin.
This error presents an opportunity for an investor...but more significantly, that opportunity comes at the expense of an uninformed seller.

That last part - the uninformed seller, is the reason I'm trying to get ahead of the game.  This community...the ones that hold the coins now...they are the ones I want to reap those significant benefits down the road.

To everyone other than scotjam - he and I have been shooting a few emails back and forth privately about this concept. I've really struggled with presenting my view in a clear manner.  Well, scotjam grasped what I was getting at, parroted it back, and presented a counter-argument.

The thing is, I do not know I am correct.  (If I did, I would not be selling any of my collectibles now.) The percentage I am selling now is a hedge in case I am wrong, while I intend to keep the remainder of my collection for future appreciation.

In the here and now...I did think about an Ebay Buy it Now. I haven't decided yet. As for the premium, it might decrease slightly from here, but I do not plan to offer it for less than the previous selling price. In my mind, 400 was the floor, as I want to retain a substantial enough margin between successive sales so that my buyer could retain the right to flip his/her piece for a profit, while still offering it for less than my next offering.  I'm more interested in a smooth, predictable, appreciating market than in creating excess volatility, burning the unlucky investor that buys a collectible right before a market floods.  Evidence of such health and predictability increase the odds of adoption by those in the HNWI category, which benefits all current collectible holders.

[Chainsaw]

In case you haven't heard...Goat just successfully sold his 1000 BTC coin!

Historical sales price precedents are one (major) valuation tool.
But relative Mintage/rarity is another.

The marketplace still has this mostly turned on its head.
However, with Goat's just-completed 1000 BTC coin selling for 1250 BTC equivalent ($1mil in fiat/gold/BTC mix at $800 BTC spot), I have to take into account relative Mintage/rarity.

With a Mintage of 18, I can't in good conscience ask for a BTC premium that is higher than the premium obtained for an item with a Mintage of 5.
So I've dropped it to 1 BTC below that price :-P 

We're still amidst great uncertainty, as the asking prices for the still-rarer pieces will likely increase from here.  No one wants to be first to a market.  But now that we've seen a 100 BTC bar sale for 340, then nightowlace's $207,000 offering receiving interest from Gyft.com, and now a 1000 BTC coin...there is a higher-than-ever chance that the elite investment community will now look to these early, rare collectibles as a legitimate alternative investment.

I've adjusted the asking price of this bar downwards, and crept the asking price of many of my other 2011 releases back upwards, closer to their original asking prices.

The collectible Bitcoin community is getting stronger legs beneath it day by day!

[vitalemontea]

I will never understand why anyone would pay 3x premium for such collectible. You will make more profit in long run if you hold all that BTC.

[Chainsaw]

I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving. 

It's Black Friday. Make me a reasonable offer, I'll probably accept.

A few other offerings not for sale anywhere else listed here.

And of course, the collectible marketplace is loaded up quite well with casascius offerings right now.

Happy shopping!

[Chainsaw]

Asking price decreased, now matching the previous sale price.

Bumpity bumpity bump.

We now return to our regularly scheduled Bitcoin crash 

[BayAreaCoins]

We now return to our regularly scheduled Bitcoin crash 

Ugh forgot about that until I read this... Thanks Chainsaw

[Chainsaw]

We now return to our regularly scheduled Bitcoin crash 

Ugh forgot about that until I read this... Thanks Chainsaw

Hey, no problem! Let me try that again...

We now return to our moon-ramp to $5000 Bitcoins.

[CubeOne]

Damn I would never sell it, In ten years from now if Bitcoin still will be a hype I bet you could get allot more for this.

[Chainsaw]

Damn I would never sell it, In ten years from now if Bitcoin still will be a hype I bet you could get allot more for this.

That's the eternal struggle. I also expect the future valuation to be far higher than today's. But a sale years from now won't change my life circumstances today, so I'm willing to risk future gains for smaller, certain gains in the present.

If you're contemplating this piece, shoot me a PM. Maybe there's some sort of hybrid trade with PMs or other casascius collectibles that could help offset the purchase cost.

[Chainsaw]

Given the recent price drop, I figured this could use a bump.

If you're a serious buyer, shoot me a PM, and we'll see if we can work out a price.
Given my recent experiences with both escrow and sending first to a long-trusted member (Projects), this would have to be an in-person transaction.

There are 18 of these. When Bitcoin is well-established, collectors will do what collectors do - build sets. These first-year pieces will be the key dates. The 100 BTC bar is remarkably rare, with only 18 of the 57 S1 bars remaining funded.

(The 500 BTC bar is rarest with a mintage of 2. Then the 1000 BTC coin with 3, then the 1000 BTC bar with 5 (?). Following those, we get a 0.5 BTC piece of which 45 exist.)

Take a look at the relative pricing of key date St. Gaudens pieces versus common varieties here.

This is not a piece to buy for a quick flip, but rather, to hold and watch as the collectible market matures, and demand steadily rises.

If you're on the fence, shoot me a PM. We'll see if we can work something out.