We've Reached the Top (Proof Inside)

[kireinaha]

According to the latest bitcoin graphs, we're currently on the 5th "impulse" wave of Elliot's theory on crowd sourcing market patterns. I'd say this is a pretty clear cut example of his theory in motion:





As you can see, we will soon be entering the "corrective" phase. It's hard to say how far we'll drop, but I think we could easily dip below $200 again by this weekend. If you're on the fence about investing, I'd recommend you wait it out a few more days to see what happens.



I could be wrong, but predicting group think on a scale like this is reasonably effective.

Just my .0000002 BTC.

[1714803726]

1714803726

[1714803726]

1714803726

[1714803726]

1714803726

[1714803726]

1714803726

[1714803726]

1714803726

[BitchicksHusband]

According to the latest bitcoin graphs, we're currently on the 5th "impulse" wave of Elliot's theory on crowd sourcing market patterns. I'd say this is a pretty clear cut example of his theory in motion:





As you can see, we will soon be entering the "corrective" phase. It's hard to say how far we'll drop, but I think we could easily dip below $200 again by this weekend. If you're on the fence about investing, I'd recommend you wait it out a few more days to see what happens.



I could be wrong, but predicting group think on a scale like this is reasonably predictive.

Just my .0000002 BTC.

Well, in that case you should SELL ALL immediately.

For everyone else, they are probably better off looking at this thread instead:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0

At least compare both competing theories and decide which one has been supported by the previous data.

[kehtolo]

Hpmm. i've been looking at this too trying to understand Elliott wave since reading about them on the 'Analysis never ends' thread.


Anyway, there are rules. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave.

So, starting from where you did.. which is beginning of October (after the SR dip which can be seen in red to the left)
The 3rd wave would be shorter.
So it doesn't follow the rules.

If however, you begin your wave count around 1st November.. this follows the pattern.

Putting us in the 3rd (and longest) wave.

The rules say, the 4th (corrective) wave cannot retrace more than 100% of wave 1.

In other words, we won't dip below the height of wave 1. (this assumes of course we ARE following the Elliott pattern)

Also, expect wave 5 to be similar to wave 1.

My guess on the price. We are looking like starting wave 4 now. We dip down to around (Stamp prices) 370-380..
Then go back up again in wave 5 to around 480-490..
Gox will break 500.. and selling will take us back down into a new Elliott series.

[superduh]

see my thread. if snapchat is "worth" 3 billion. twitter is "worth" 20 billion. then we have a long way to go..up!
the waves are bullshit anyways.
never once in history of humanity there has ever been an asset "Class" that is called bitcoin.
you can't apply rigid models unto everything and expect them to work.

[ElectricMucus]

never once in history of humanity there has ever been an asset "Class" that is called bitcoin.

Penny stocks.

[proudhon]

Among the lessons I've learned as I've watched the bitcoin market since early 2011:  Elliot Wave Theory is bullshit.

[noedaRDH]

Using these theories to predict the Bitcoin market is like asking Galileo to predict the rise of Gangnam Style. It's all bullshit.

[seleme]

Among the lessons I've learned as I've watched the bitcoin market since early 2011:  Elliot Wave Theory is bullshit.

Well, EW helped Lucif to sell on the top of 266 rally, to predict a bottom of some $60 in June and to call mass rally on October 13th.

Difference between Lucif and OP is that Lucif has a good history of good calls and that he thinks we're still in wave 3.

[ajax3592]

Can you estimate a  date range when BTC will fall below $300, I need to get my first 5-10 coins. I know we won't be getting it at that price again in future, so its the last chance.

[kireinaha]

Among the lessons I've learned as I've watched the bitcoin market since early 2011:  Elliot Wave Theory is bullshit.

Well, EW helped Lucif to sell on the top of 266 rally, to predict a bottom of some $60 in June and to call mass rally on October 13th.

Difference between Lucif and OP is that Lucif has a good history of good calls and that he thinks we're still in wave 3.

I don't see how we can be in wave 3 anymore, there's just too many dips and sideways movement. I can acknowledge that we might be in a "wave 6" correction phase followed by some small upward ticks, but wave 3... I just don't see that.

[Pruden]

Well, EW helped Lucif to sell on the top of 266 rally, to predict a bottom of some $60 in June and to call mass rally on October 13th.

Difference between Lucif and OP is that Lucif has a good history of good calls and that he thinks we're still in wave 3.

Two of those calls had nothing to do with EW. For the 266 top, he said it was just a matter of liquidity relative to the size of his position, and for October 13th he only talked of broken triangles and Cup&Handle.

So much for EW.

[superduh]

never once in history of humanity there has ever been an asset "Class" that is called bitcoin.

Penny stocks.

thanks for an idiotic response that obviously makes no sense

[superduh]

Among the lessons I've learned as I've watched the bitcoin market since early 2011:  Elliot Wave Theory is bullshit.

go proundhound! ultra bull

[kireinaha]

never once in history of humanity there has ever been an asset "Class" that is called bitcoin.

Penny stocks.

thanks for an idiotic response that obviously makes no sense

I don't think that's a fair retort. Bitcoin is a speculation investment right now, much in the same nature as penny stocks. Digital currency itself is new (kind of) but speculation is as old as the hills, and the rise and fall of the current market euphoria we're in will be no different.

[xephyr]

There is also a good case to be made that we are still in Elliott Wave 3:



Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1, so we could be close to the end of wave 3 now. Corrective wave 4 would not overlap wave 1 and is often less than 38% of wave 3, so a correction now from the high of 440 on MtGox would signal a strong buying opportunity between 260-300 USD on MtGox. Then wave 5 would extend the rally past todays' highs.

[superduh]

never once in history of humanity there has ever been an asset "Class" that is called bitcoin.

Penny stocks.

thanks for an idiotic response that obviously makes no sense

I don't think that's a fair retort. Bitcoin is a speculation investment right now, much in the same nature as penny stocks. Digital currency itself is new (kind of) but speculation is as old as the hills, and the rise and fall of the current market euphoria we're in will be no different.

speculative .....sure - everything in this world is speculative BUT bitcoin is not a "stock" at all. hence why i called it a completely idiotic response.

[BitchicksHusband]

never once in history of humanity there has ever been an asset "Class" that is called bitcoin.

Penny stocks.

thanks for an idiotic response that obviously makes no sense

I don't think that's a fair retort. Bitcoin is a speculation investment right now, much in the same nature as penny stocks. Digital currency itself is new (kind of) but speculation is as old as the hills, and the rise and fall of the current market euphoria we're in will be no different.

I'm still waiting for the "internet" euphoria and fall to happen.  Any day now...

[kireinaha]

There is also a good case to be made that we are still in Elliott Wave 3:



Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1, so we could be close to the end of wave 3 now. Corrective wave 4 would not overlap wave 1 and is often less than 38% of wave 3, so a correction now from the high of 440 on MtGox would signal a strong buying opportunity between 260-300 USD on MtGox. Then wave 5 would extend the rally past todays' highs.

I was only measuring the current bull run that we're on, but if you're right that we're in wave three overall, that would be an unsettling thought, given that the Winklevoss twins believe we should be hitting $40,000 USD value per coin. I don't see how we could reach that if there's only wave 5 left to go.

[rampantparanoia]

I'm still waiting for the "internet" euphoria and fall to happen.  Any day now...

it already happened with the invention of Facebook.

[RodeoX]

Speculation is also called guessing and never involves proof. If the future price were provable every one with a calculator would be rich.
I'm not dis-ing you man. But I have seen hundreds of threads like this.