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Question: the bitcoin bubble
never existed - 14 (16.3%)
did burst already - 20 (23.3%)
is still bursting - 16 (18.6%)
is still building up - 7 (8.1%)
shut up about bubbles - 29 (33.7%)
Total Voters: 68

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Author Topic: the bitcoin bubble revisit  (Read 1579 times)
molecular
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August 01, 2011, 11:52:12 AM
 #1



I just remebered all the people warning that the bitcoin bubble would burst and wondered what's up with that.

What do you think? (don't be fooled, above chart has log scale)

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August 01, 2011, 12:44:18 PM
 #2

rulez of bitcoin:
rule 1. do not talk about bubbles
rule 2. DO NOT TALK ABOUT BUBBLES.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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August 01, 2011, 08:47:27 PM
 #3

Lets talk about plateaus instead

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August 01, 2011, 08:49:41 PM
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Its not a bubble, its a taste of what the real value of bitcoins will become.


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August 01, 2011, 08:51:59 PM
 #5

Lets talk about plateaus instead

I like the second ones on the right  Grin


Yeah, well... I'm gonna go build my own blockchain, with blackjack and hookers. In fact, forget the blockchain!
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August 01, 2011, 11:22:52 PM
 #6

As I've stated in my thread about 'bubbles', we have until the end of August to conclusively prove we're out of the woods or not. So, not just yet. I personally believe we are not in one.

For reference: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=26117.0

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August 01, 2011, 11:57:12 PM
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1 week in Bitcoinland = 1 year in Nasdaq dotcomland

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August 02, 2011, 04:48:52 PM
 #8

We could make that graph fit anything, if we look hard enough.

The dotcom bubble?

Did you know that Moody's and S&P had rated many dotcom companies as "pieces of crap", BEFORE the crash?

Anyone with half a brain KNEW there was garbage piling up in the NASDAQ, that had to be purged.

Bitcoin is a useful legitimate commodity with a solid foundation.

So I'm not really drawing the parallel to bitcoin here. Its not happening for me.
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August 02, 2011, 04:57:41 PM
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Did you know that Moody's and S&P had rated many dotcom companies as "pieces of crap", BEFORE the crash?

Anyone with half a brain KNEW there was garbage piling up in the NASDAQ, that had to be purged.

So I'm not really drawing the parallel to bitcoin here. Its not happening for me.
You really cant see it?

http://www.zyprexa.com/Pages/index.aspx
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August 02, 2011, 04:58:14 PM
 #10

We could make that graph fit anything, if we look hard enough.

The dotcom bubble?

Did you know that Moody's and S&P had rated many dotcom companies as "pieces of crap", BEFORE the crash?

Anyone with half a brain KNEW there was garbage piling up in the NASDAQ, that had to be purged.

Bitcoin is a useful legitimate commodity with a solid foundation.

So I'm not really drawing the parallel to bitcoin here. Its not happening for me.

Plus, when you're free to move the reference goalposts to include one month, one year, one decade... we could really find a perfect match between the dot com bubble, the market collapse of 2008 AND the movements of glaciers and ice masses around the Earth over the last two or three thousand years... this is all pretty pointless.
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August 02, 2011, 05:25:35 PM
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We could make that graph fit anything, if we look hard enough.

That is not true. It's certainly scaled, but the zeros are on the same line. Bubbles have symmetry. And you can only determine a bubble after it's popped. If you find something else that matches, then you've found another bubble.


Plus, when you're free to move the reference goalposts to include one month, one year, one decade... we could really find a perfect match between the dot com bubble, the market collapse of 2008 AND the movements of glaciers and ice masses around the Earth over the last two or three thousand years... this is all pretty pointless.

A bubble in a market occurs when the price growth itself is the catalyst for more growth irrespective of the fundamentals. If glaciers and ice masses move according to positive feedback, then yes, they too would exhibit the same graph pattern. It is not pointless. Failure to recognize a bubble from technical data condemns you to huge losses.

Incidentally, the recent bitcoin bubble rose, peaked, and popped entirely in June. We've seen three such unambiguous examples in bitcoin price history, and no doubt more to come.

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August 02, 2011, 06:50:05 PM
 #12


Did you know that Moody's and S&P had rated many dotcom companies as "pieces of crap", BEFORE the crash?

Anyone with half a brain KNEW there was garbage piling up in the NASDAQ, that had to be purged.

Bitcoin is a useful, legitimate, multi-function commodity with a solid foundation.

So I'm not really drawing the parallel to bitcoin here. Its not happening for me.
You really cant see it?


Nice try at neutering my post. Take a fistful of those, maybe you'll feel refreshed after.

Bitcoin is a useful legitimate commodity with a solid foundation.

Top 12 Reasons for dot-com failures:


1.    Customer service meltdown: Neglecting service is always a license to lose customers. One Internet research firm that  measured customer service at 79 online sites found 30% of  customer service e-mails went unanswered.

2.    Doing the same thing - Companies that do not make fundamental changes to their corporate goal, and objectives and simply operate according to business as usual, after they begin e-commerce, are going to put themselves in a bad situation when the changes that e-commerce creates begin to effect the company.

3.    Inadequate order fulfillment: Too many companies still don't have stock on hand or readily available to meet  customer orders — leaving customers in limbo or the lurch.

4.    Use of primitive search and transaction tools: Many websites make consumers wait too long or take too many  steps to find what they're looking for.

5.    Failure to globalize: Many U.S. websites neglected potential customers in other countries. Market-research firm  IDC says this is the year [2001] that international surfers will outspend U.S. online shoppers.

6.    Building community, not clientele: Too many dot-coms have emphasized building a community instead of clientele.

7.    Insufficient budgets: Memo to the accounting department:  deploying a website is just the beginning of a company's e-commerce expenditures. Many companies underbudget their needs in website maintenance and marketing. Emerick says "As savings are realized and revenues generated, the Internet must have additional funding from these successes or it will fall behind waiting for the next budget cycle."

8.    Channel conflict: Many companies leap into Internet sales  without considering the impact on their channel partners, such as dealers or retailers. The resulting chill has set back many e-commerce initiatives.

9.    HR problems - need a senior executive - if you want the "e" side of your business to have influence over the company's direction, you need to create a senior staff position for an executive that has authority and can do things corporately, internally and externally, on behalf of the people trying to develop the e-objectives

10.    HR problems - compensation - if you start to have company executives bringing in money based on the e-commerce side of the business, you have to make sure you reward them with bonuses or increased pay in proportion to the $$$ they are creating in revenue.

11.    Innovation - the intensity of the competitive environment and the continued developments in the technological environment require that a company constantly search for innovative ways to produce and dispense the product and deal with customers

12.    Customers to Ambassadors - mass advertising turns people off - if they like your product, they will tell other people - this is desirable. If you can use internet structures and great customer service to turn customers into ambassadors of your product, you will be, in effect, increasing your sales force.

Again: WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH BITCOIN?
netrin
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August 03, 2011, 04:26:08 AM
 #13

Top 12 Reasons for dot-com failures: 1. blah 2. blah 3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10.blah 11.blah, 12.blah blah
Again: WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH BITCOIN?

Yes Exactly, what does this have to do with bitcoin? Well actually, many of those points are great descriptions of most of our fledgling sites. But I agree; Your post is irrelevant to bitcoin and the discussion. I would like to hear why you think June was not a classic bubble or why two scaled superimposed price graphs (which happen to be MtGox and NASDAQ) were not both picture perfect examples of bubbles.

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
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