are we at a new base price? [CHART]

[Morbid]

by analysing historical chart of cyprus panic buy in april i can see distinct similarities with the structure of ascend that we are experiencing now. if i am to apply april's rally to what is going on today then according to that we are only halfway into the bubble that should peak around 800-1000 usd before speculators bringing it down to 300-400 region. though it looks like we've been there, one thing is unclear to me - there is no panic buying like back then. we are actually experiencing a rapid market growth where quite few people are interested in securing their wealth, mostly chineese individuals. so. are we now at a new base price of 400 or all this just result of speculative deeds?

[Wilhelm]

I know shit about trading but if a resistance barrier is broken it becomes the new support.
So yes it is the new base unless we get a panic then we go to the previous support.

[Rupture]

Imo new base is 250

[piramida]

Imo new base is 250

Remember, it can not go below preivous ATH which is $266. So something like $300 as the new possible low seems right. But this is obvious, the real question is - how far up will we swing first.

[Morbid]

well i just made a simple chart on my work asus eee laptop. i want to demonstrate what i mean. this rally really reminds me of april bonanza. though as i said here we dont have any headless chikens panic. maybe in china the get government supported programmes educating people on finances and dangers that dollar is facing in not so distant future. as we dont have panic in the west maybe they have a mild panic in the east. the phenominal effects that we are experiencing could be due to the simple fact that its just so many of the chineese waking up to that. it could be fractional comparing to total population but enough to stir a rally in such small $4bn market.

april rally:


november rally:


by no means im not expert so im more than welcome for discussion but do you see what i see?

[marcelus]

Independently, I've come to almost identical conclusions.

[wobber]

I am so confident that price will stop at 600, I'll sell 70-80%



And buy back at 400 or less

[Morbid]

my gut is telling me that if i invest more into it now i will still not lose much as it could crash back into todays levels. maybe after the next mega rally the news will be ringing about it so hard that we might not even be able to grab them on time after the crash as they will be picked up by speculators much faster than most average people will. so the masses might be ending up buying at way above todays levels.

[wobber]

my gut is telling me that if i invest more into it now i will still not lose much as it could crash back into todays levels. maybe after the next mega rally the news will be ringing about it so hard that we might not even be able to grab them on time after the crash as they will be picked up by speculators much faster than most average people will. so the masses might be ending up buying at way above todays levels.

This is where I see the problem. Nobody from the masses will afford 1 BTC. Maybe not even half btc. Fucking speculators. They destroyed bitcoin.

[lucaspm98]

I sure hope so...

I also believe that it will spike between $500-1000 then quickly fall to the new base, but I have no idea what it will be.

[Morbid]

Fucking speculators. They destroyed bitcoin.

im in no way blaming speculators. they also got purpose here. thanks to them the price managed to skyrocket up bringing all the media attention which is obviously good. when we were heading slowly up or spiralling down i didnt notice any coverage. i personally got into bitcoin thanks to mr keiser - he could only blab about bitcoin when speculators were holding, resulting in higher and higher prives for all the folk that were desperate to buy. their funds were being robbed by eu mob off cypriot banks.

[bitcoin carpenter]

The only people worried about speculators are those that were part of the old "bitcoins are for discreet transaction club"
It is a new day where bitcoins will hopefully be the international money transfer system... "bitcoins are better than western union club"
I am sure there will be bitching again when bitcoins goes from a transfer system, to a backing for an entire system...
"Gold, money, not unless they are backed by bitcoins club"

[porcupine87]

Ah explorating. If a schema happens once, than it happens likely again? Oh trading would be so easy...

btw: before the rally 2011 the price level was near 1$. After the rally somewhere 5$. -> 5times
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2011-01-01zeg2011-05-01ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
Before the rally in 2013/1 the level war near 15$ and afterwards it was near 100$ -> 6times.

Now we had a level of 150$ and what comes next? -> 5times of that would be 750$.

Ok, that is unlikely, too, but I have at least 2 observations


PS: between the 2 rallies the level nearly doubled.

[Odalv]

my gut is telling me that if i invest more into it now i will still not lose much as it could crash back into todays levels. maybe after the next mega rally the news will be ringing about it so hard that we might not even be able to grab them on time after the crash as they will be picked up by speculators much faster than most average people will. so the masses might be ending up buying at way above todays levels.

This is where I see the problem. Nobody from the masses will afford 1 BTC. Maybe not even half btc. Fucking speculators. They destroyed bitcoin.

lol, you are the one.

[tutkarz]

we had 3 bubbles so far and every one was different.

[BitchicksHusband]

I think the longer we go with more users, the less that any dollar amount affects anything.  So volatility will get less as time goes on.

I can't see anyone doing the DDOS pump and dump that led to April's 75% crash in value anymore.  It takes way too much money now for anyone to do anything like that.

In fact, last week I saw what looked like attempted dumps but nobody panic sold and the coins were just bought up quickly and the price just went back.

Right now, while the price is moving up steadily, it's really not rocketing up.  Maybe that comes or maybe not, we might just have a steadier rise with only 20% corrections.  And a year from now, a 5% correction will be major news.  And in 2 years, it will be difficult to cause a 1% correction, because the value difference is just spread across too many hands.

[Morbid]

Ah explorating. If a schema happens once, than it happens likely again? Oh trading would be so easy...

btw: before the rally 2011 the price level was near 1$. After the rally somewhere 5$. -> 5times
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2011-01-01zeg2011-05-01ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
Before the rally in 2013/1 the level war near 15$ and afterwards it was near 100$ -> 6times.

Now we had a level of 150$ and what comes next? -> 5times of that would be 750$.

Ok, that is unlikely, too, but I have at least 2 observations


PS: between the 2 rallies the level nearly doubled.

im actually quite fascinated by those early believers as they truly thought that this could be phenomenal world changing mechanism able to solve today's world problems. they invested their own hard earned money into something that was so unstable and highly questionable. by first of april they probably spotted that bitcoins are slowly and steadily going down so they emptied their bank accounts to keep it floating. After all if there was no volatility then there would be no excitement and no interest from advanced computer users, economists, businessmen and libertarians like yourselves - second wave adopters. now after it went through news it triggered attention of concerned people, those who question authority and governments - i submit myself into this third category. now the third category starts to spread the word. im personally enjoy mentioning to my friends about bitcoin and how it can help our world. those who are concerned lit up in trying to understand it. but those who think ive become obsessed with it and dont find interest or any concern then i just completely turn that subject off while being sorry for them taking all the bullshit propaganda from the media as truth. we now live in this fairytale world of news when we are being constantly reassured that banking system is fine and nothing will ever happen to it. GROWTH! GROWTH! GROWTH!

[Morbid]

hmm. everything happened alot faster than predicted. what you think? are we at stage 3 heading for more uptrend or this $600 is the new base?

[antimattercrusader]

600 is the new base.

[gizmoh]

600 is the new base.

500 is the new base , we bottomed twice there at gox with high volume.