BTC - 6k, 5k? 40k?

[MoonIsBlue]

Bitcoin is going up as market sentiment had shifted towards a very bearish stance. In January it was a dip, slowly but surely people started realizing it is a crash, not a dip (perhaps on a larger timeframe in the future they will be right). The market was calling for higher highs in January, the market started shifting eyeing lower lows in march/april. Lots of people started selling forcefully because of taxes or simply because they wanted to cut their losses and stopped believing, anticipating a price in the range of 4-5k to buy back in again. The general crowd of market participants is usually wrong and this time it is no different.

So what do I think we see happening right now? Someone pointed out to me that a possible Wyckoff Accumulation pattern was forming on our first move up to 7500, I'm not very good at technical analysis, I know the basics and necessities to make more informed decisions but I have had success with fundamental anaylsis and as bearish as I was my sentiment started shifting in the sideways movement. As we probably all know PBC has mentioned that in early April we could see some big money flowing in as traditional investors start peeking under the Bitcoin skirt. To take this serious is an understatement. I am not a fan of PBC but I do understand they usually have sublime fundamental analysis of the market and coins/tokens. The market is about information foremost, you have to be smarter than the rest  no matter the size of your portfolio. Surely people that have been longer in crypto, especially those that are sitting on a sizeable portfolio have connections we can only speculate on. So if PBC knows something, then I bet some whales know something aswell.

If whales know institutional money is flowing in, they are going to want to ride that wave instead of selling at prices the market is screaming for, knowing fully well if they sell there is a big line of buyers ready to scoop up at those prices and ofcourse other whales who know whats coming. Regardless that BTC isn't at the most favorable price, the market sentiment is favorable and there's an abundance of supply as people capitulate selling their coins on the market. So whales have been accumulating at the artificial bottom, supply decreases as more people sell into the whales orders, eventually supply and demand shifts as the whales don't sell and all the capitulators have. The price starts going up again. Right now, if my fundamental analysis plus the technicals are all sound, we're in markup. Which means that whales are again accumulating before the price rises again. This can go on for quite some time untill the market makers are satisfied with their profits. You will know the moment is there if you familiarize yourself with Wyckoff's accumulation and distribution scheme.

I can't guarrantee you anything, but if anyone is still on the fence then they might want to consider this theory. It be a shame to have ridden out such a long time on BTC and to miss the action when its only just starting.

If you don't believe in the market or BTC anymore. Then you don't understand what this is about, and I suggest you dive deeper into the fundamentals and their opposites.
If you're one of those people who told themselves they will hold for X years and capitulated out of fear and depression. I'd advice you try again but do things different such as putting the BTC on a cold wallet and safe it in a time-lock safe.

[1Referee]

If you're one of those people who told themselves they will hold for X years and capitulated out of fear and depression. I'd advice you try again but do things different such as putting the BTC on a cold wallet and safe it in a time-lock safe.

If people have to force themselves to somehow make sure they can't access their coins due to a lack of trust or confidence, then they shouldn't invest at all. If you actually believe in Bitcoin's fundamentals, and what change it can force through in the forthcoming years, you won't even consider selling any of your coins; people shouldn't want themselves to go through this. It only causes stress and unnecessary drama.

Also, the majority of the people here very likely believe that Bitcoin can become worthless overnight, which somewhat explains why there has been so much panic flowing through the market in the last months. It all comes down to ignorance; if you don't understand what you're investing in, then don't invest. You'll only become a target for fud and manipulation as result of that. If you can make sure that people know what they invest in, and have them take distance from their fiat centric way of thinking, then that alone is enough to turn people into solid holders. You buy 1BTC, not $8000 worth of fiat; regardless of the price, your BTC unit value remains always the same.

[BillCoin]

We can't reach 40K$ untill something really special happens, if we reach 40K$ because of fake hype then we will soon bounce back and it doesn't worth anything.

We need a slow increase with a reason to have a strong trust among the community, and if we will keep this strong uptrends that are fully based on hypes then the trust rate in the system will remain low.

[Basmic]

Last year, a great demand for bitcoin was provoked by the news that in the fall there will be a transition to segwit2x. It seems to me that this news was the main catalyst of the bullish market. I heard that this summer the developers are planning to return to this problem again. Can we see the second take?

[UnDerDoG81]

As long as Mtgox is in the game, price wont increase much. Yeah they paid their customers and so on (did not receive anything) but still Investors are waiting till they are out.

[peter0425]

As long as Mtgox is in the game, price wont increase much. Yeah they paid their customers and so on (did not receive anything) but still Investors are waiting till they are out.

Do you mean the Mt. Gox trustee who keeps dumping bitcoin when we are just starting to have a break out run?

We can't reach 40K$ untill something really special happens, if we reach 40K$ because of fake hype then we will soon bounce back and it doesn't worth anything.

I don't know what good news that will really push the market to $40K, Maybe Lightning Network Implementation is one. We will have to see.

We need a slow increase with a reason to have a strong trust among the community, and if we will keep this strong uptrends that are fully based on hypes then the trust rate in the system will remain low.

I would also love to see the price making just a slow and steady growth. But I don't think that its really possible because we all know that this market is based on speculation. One good positive news coming along will attract and renewed the interest of investors, pouring their cash immediately that might cause the price to jump exponentially in just a day or two.

[Gozie51]

We can't reach 40K$ untill something really special happens, if we reach 40K$ because of fake hype then we will soon bounce back and it doesn't worth anything.

Hitting $40,000 is hitting it no matter how it happens. If we still remember just 4 months ago when bitcoin picked its highest level so far, anything is possible to happen since taking profit is concerned.

[RamonBTC]

We can't reach 40K$ untill something really special happens, if we reach 40K$ because of fake hype then we will soon bounce back and it doesn't worth anything.

Hitting $40,000 is hitting it no matter how it happens. If we still remember just 4 months ago when bitcoin picked its highest level so far, anything is possible to happen since taking profit is concerned.

@Gozie51 is right. Nothing seems to imagine that bitcoin has reached 20000$ last year with or without too much positive news of adaptation, but more on hype and bullish optimism from each members with the help of whales eventually.

@Billcoin at

40K$ = really special

that’s also be true in instances that big company that is well-known worldwide will invest in bitcoin massively.

In my speculation, anything about bitcoin is unpredictable but what does matter for me now is my trust to it that in time will be repaid.

[adam1230]

Slowly rising wedge and we are almost 9k resistance line.
If we can close a daily candle above 9k than we can say our way is to 40k for sure. but its not 100% for now
Waiting for a breakout .

[BrewMaster]

@Gozie51 is right. Nothing seems to imagine that bitcoin has reached 20000$ last year with or without too much positive news of adaptation, but more on hype and bullish optimism from each members with the help of whales eventually.

actually there was a lot of positive news last year specially during the rise to $20k in that last month of the year. mainly the mainstream adoption by CME and NASDAQ were the main reasons.
but the problem was that above $10k there were not much of a friction so price easily slid upwards to $20k and also the bigger problem was that most of the money that was coming in was from newbies with the dream to become rich with bitcoin, obviously they were the first to run away and crash the bubbly price they created themselves.

[Unplugged]

As long as Mtgox is in the game, price wont increase much. Yeah they paid their customers and so on (did not receive anything) but still Investors are waiting till they are out.

Mt. Gox trustee has really been keeping the bitcoin market in the range of $7-8k. Also, the much awaited Segwit2x has always been moved and never have a definite date. The speculation on which blocked height it would occur has been keeping bitcoin on 4 digit mark. Recovery is evident but once it breaks the $10k mark again we can expect the pricing to went ballistic from there.

[Slash61]

As long as Mtgox is in the game, price wont increase much. Yeah they paid their customers and so on (did not receive anything) but still Investors are waiting till they are out.

Yes, that's the bitcoin price and all the users are overwhelmed, Mt Gox severely inhibits the movement that happens to not show very high spikes.

It takes a massive explosion to reach 40k which requires very strong strength, now there is no power or very positive news to show a bitcoin spike, and it takes a lot of time to reach 40k now for me to reach 25k only. the end of the year, I'm sure it's with the analysis I've noticed, from all the sources that to me are so good to be trusted.

[BartS]

If people have to force themselves to somehow make sure they can't access their coins due to a lack of trust or confidence, then they shouldn't invest at all. If you actually believe in Bitcoin's fundamentals, and what change it can force through in the forthcoming years, you won't even consider selling any of your coins; people shouldn't want themselves to go through this. It only causes stress and unnecessary drama.

Also, the majority of the people here very likely believe that Bitcoin can become worthless overnight, which somewhat explains why there has been so much panic flowing through the market in the last months. It all comes down to ignorance; if you don't understand what you're investing in, then don't invest. You'll only become a target for fud and manipulation as result of that. If you can make sure that people know what they invest in, and have them take distance from their fiat centric way of thinking, then that alone is enough to turn people into solid holders. You buy 1BTC, not $8000 worth of fiat; regardless of the price, your BTC unit value remains always the same.

I agree with this, no method is going to save you from selling your coins and get rid of them if you do not have a complete trust of bitcoin and any cryptocurrencies in which you have invested, this is why it's important to be completely sure that you are willing to invest your money in a coin because if you're not sure then the chances that you panic and sell your coins when there is a crash go up exponentially, this is one of the main reasons of why almost all the money that I have invested is in bitcoin because it is the only coin in which I have complete trust.

[BitMaxz]

As long as Mtgox is in the game, price wont increase much. Yeah they paid their customers and so on (did not receive anything) but still Investors are waiting till they are out.

Yes, that's the bitcoin price and all the users are overwhelmed, Mt Gox severely inhibits the movement that happens to not show very high spikes.

It takes a massive explosion to reach 40k which requires very strong strength, now there is no power or very positive news to show a bitcoin spike, and it takes a lot of time to reach 40k now for me to reach 25k only. the end of the year, I'm sure it's with the analysis I've noticed, from all the sources that to me are so good to be trusted.

I don't think it is because of MT.Gox that is why the price is slowly gaining. Look at the price last December so if Mt.gox is true why the price keeps increasing last year and MT.gox was closed February 2014 and it's impossible that they are still holding large amount of bitcoin and I think they sold their bitcoin after the closed of MT.gox or they sold their bitcoin when the prices hit $1k value.

So, bitcoin right now is growing normally unlike last year that we saw the price is growing continuously.

The possible could decrease or hardly reach $20k above it's because of many news about scam ICO's and banning bitcoin in other countries.

[maarx]

As long as Mtgox is in the game, price wont increase much. Yeah they paid their customers and so on (did not receive anything) but still Investors are waiting till they are out.

Yes, that's the bitcoin price and all the users are overwhelmed, Mt Gox severely inhibits the movement that happens to not show very high spikes.

It takes a massive explosion to reach 40k which requires very strong strength, now there is no power or very positive news to show a bitcoin spike, and it takes a lot of time to reach 40k now for me to reach 25k only. the end of the year, I'm sure it's with the analysis I've noticed, from all the sources that to me are so good to be trusted.

I don't think it is because of MT.Gox that is why the price is slowly gaining. Look at the price last December so if Mt.gox is true why the price keeps increasing last year and MT.gox was closed February 2014 and it's impossible that they are still holding large amount of bitcoin and I think they sold their bitcoin after the closed of MT.gox or they sold their bitcoin when the prices hit $1k value.

So, bitcoin right now is growing normally unlike last year that we saw the price is growing continuously.

The possible could decrease or hardly reach $20k above it's because of many news about scam ICO's and banning bitcoin in other countries.

NEWS on channels played an important role in last 100 plus days correction. The reason would be many. But bit smoothing is, current price hike. Even today we could see the price being around $8200 is really a success. What is expected now is a stable growth. Let the growth rate be slow but should be steady when crossing a threshold. This moment will certainly bring more investors into crypto.

[bobo012]

As long as Mtgox is in the game, price wont increase much. Yeah they paid their customers and so on (did not receive anything) but still Investors are waiting till they are out.

Mt. Gox trustee has really been keeping the bitcoin market in the range of $7-8k. Also, the much awaited Segwit2x has always been moved and never have a definite date. The speculation on which blocked height it would occur has been keeping bitcoin on 4 digit mark. Recovery is evident but once it breaks the $10k mark again we can expect the pricing to went ballistic from there.

What? Mt gox is not moving any coins right now. They all sit in their addresses and everybody can verify it as it is publicly available. Only thing that can suppress it is fear that maybe someday he might sell

[richardsNY]

Look at the price last December so if Mt.gox is true why the price keeps increasing last year and MT.gox was closed February 2014 and it's impossible that they are still holding large amount of bitcoin and I think they sold their bitcoin after the closed of MT.gox or they sold their bitcoin when the prices hit $1k value.

Actually, the Japanese authorities have control over roughly 160-170,000 BTC from MtGox right now. Approximately 30,000 BTC have been sold recently to make sure they have enough capacity to *eventually* pay back their users in fiat value. In a market already bound to correct, or where a correction was already in progress, these coins considerably contribute to more selling pressure. It temporarily has been an extra selling force because these coins haven't been on the market for years. They gained like $400 million from the sales, so that's directly also the amount in liquidity they took away from the market. I hope that the remaining coins will get auctioned off in batches like the FBI did with the silkroad auctions. High level OTC buyers literally crave for these coins....

[timerland]

I wouldn't say that BTC will go to $40k this year or the next, that's a lot to ask for. But it'll definitely happen within 5 years imho.

Honestly, regardless of what the market is going to go to in the future, it's clear that if you're holding your coins for the long run, selling now would be a dumb idea. We're closer to the bottom now than the fall that took us from the all time high to here. There is very little room for BTC to fall after 4 months of straight dumping. Selling now is literally giving others cheap coins.

I don't think that we'll see another big rally after this one in the first half of the year.

BTC markets are still bearish atm, I think prices may actually slide below the $6k bottom for a short amount of time before the actual recovery occurs. Traders usually overreact to bearish news, and I think they definitely will after the correction of this rally happens.

But we're definitely in the accumulation phase right now, as you mentioned. It would not surprise me if whales are currently accumulating the hell as well. There is really no reason why you shouldn't accumulate and hold when there is a ton of institutional investors fresh into the market either.

[pooya87]

As long as Mtgox is in the game, price wont increase much. Yeah they paid their customers and so on (did not receive anything) but still Investors are waiting till they are out.

Mt. Gox trustee has really been keeping the bitcoin market in the range of $7-8k. Also, the much awaited Segwit2x has always been moved and never have a definite date. The speculation on which blocked height it would occur has been keeping bitcoin on 4 digit mark. Recovery is evident but once it breaks the $10k mark again we can expect the pricing to went ballistic from there.

What? Mt gox is not moving any coins right now. They all sit in their addresses and everybody can verify it as it is publicly available. Only thing that can suppress it is fear that maybe someday he might sell

it is always easier for people to blame someone for everything that is happening! instead they should start with themselves. for all we know the coins that Mt Gox trustee sold had 0 effect on the price of bitcoin since the amount was smaller than 1 day's volume and also because he has been moving and selling his coins for some time starting during the rise from around $6000 towards $20,000 and nobody said his sale is increasing the price!

[gabmen]

As long as Mtgox is in the game, price wont increase much. Yeah they paid their customers and so on (did not receive anything) but still Investors are waiting till they are out.

Mt. Gox trustee has really been keeping the bitcoin market in the range of $7-8k. Also, the much awaited Segwit2x has always been moved and never have a definite date. The speculation on which blocked height it would occur has been keeping bitcoin on 4 digit mark. Recovery is evident but once it breaks the $10k mark again we can expect the pricing to went ballistic from there.

What? Mt gox is not moving any coins right now. They all sit in their addresses and everybody can verify it as it is publicly available. Only thing that can suppress it is fear that maybe someday he might sell

it is always easier for people to blame someone for everything that is happening! instead they should start with themselves. for all we know the coins that Mt Gox trustee sold had 0 effect on the price of bitcoin since the amount was smaller than 1 day's volume and also because he has been moving and selling his coins for some time starting during the rise from around $6000 towards $20,000 and nobody said his sale is increasing the price!

Mtgox hasn't been selling their btcs and will not be until probably september. So that's also one thing that holders are looking out for. The current value may slide down once we get close to that point and a real bull market may not happen until after september