Bitcoin USD value 6 months from now?

[ganalon]

  Share your guess with the world! 

[Ex]

Less than $10    1 (7.1%)

now that was a tough guess!

[Highway 596]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=C&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

When you look at all of the data from bitcoincharts.com, you can see those huge volume spikes correlate to the depressed value after that bizarre spike last spring/summer.

If I had to hazard a guess, I'd imagine that as the BTC community started to ramp up in 2011, the value spiked as people realized the longevity and viability of the currency and flocked to it. As more did the same and rigs were developed to produce and trade, the volume started to spike and the value stabilized (the highest volumes correlate with the lowest values).

From what I've heard, as the difficulty of discovering more blocks (which will only be worth half what they are today, 25 BTC), the volume wouldn't fluctuate so wildly and the price would recover slightly since there would likely be less interface with the USD with an amply supply of BTC to go around.

If I had to hazard a guess as I say, I would peg BTC at 6.65 USD in the 4th quarter of 2012.

I'm pretty new so please put this amateur technical analysis through some rigor...

[teopless]

And the only guy who voted for "Under $10" wins. *slow clap*

[cheapinkc]

Interesting technical analysis.

And a good guess by one person.  I'm sure they people who guessed over $30 are quite disappointed.

[HeyRon]

The way thing are going I think it's going to be $10.

[digital-reality]

I've noticed a slight increase in the Bitcoin market lately. It fluctuates a little with other virtual currency trade. It's proportional to the number of active users in the Bitcoin community. From what I've read the farming rate will be dropping 1/2 from 50 to 25 bitcoins in 2012 so I estimate another large jump. You really can't tell what will happen with virtual currency markets, I just make small investments in multiple markets keeping my eggs in different baskets.

[xloki]

I think it will see its way past $10. Possibly a nation will adopt its use somehow, I dunno. As long as it stays about $3 im mining.

[ChaosStorm]

I will say $14 by the end of the year. But I think people cranking out over 40 Gigahashes and buying all of the coins dirt cheap and stocking them could destroy the bitcoin. picture 3 big banks (people) holding all the coins. Than what?

[jmac1]

Interesting thread. I think we'll see a continued upward trend. The Bitcoin has quite a bit of resilience. 6 months from now? 8 bucks.

[psiborg]

My vote goes to 8 bucks as well, would definitely not be bad for my wallet either

[Liberate]

I think it will either stabilizes around the current rate or go back to the days of fluctuating between $17 and $30

[johnsmith88]

i honestly can't see the value heading above $6 again, other than short term fluctuations.

a stable currency is good

[farfiman]

i honestly can't see the value heading above $6 again, other than short term fluctuations.

a stable currency is good

Stable is good, but stable at 6$ in the long term is not ,except if its used only by a relatively small amount of bitcoin crazies for gambling or buying the new ATI GPU  and maybe small loans....

[btuzon]

id say around 5-6 usd. unless something "interesting" spikes the price of bitcoins again.

[lakeluke]

If the price closes above $6 (and the 200 day moving average is at min $6) by end of 2012, it would signify to me that BTC is gaining "wider" acceptance, and should have a good future ahead of it.

I think it needs to maintain a price of at least $2-$3 to cover at least the electricity needed to generate it.

[Projects]

My guess is about $8

[humanage]

I'm guessing $7-$11. After the drop in the last few weeks I was worried, but it's going back up at a steady rate this week. Anyways, I'll keep mining no matter the price as I pay a fixed power bill. Also, it might go over $10 in Q3 2012 due to the expected block drop from 50 to 25 BTC, this will cause some people to stop mining, lowering the supply, but the demand will be the same so... $$$

[diabinc141]

I really hope bit coins go back up! They are starting to but we'll see. I just started getting into this a few months ago. It'd be a shame if the price crashed 

[j4c300]

I will say $14 by the end of the year. But I think people cranking out over 40 Gigahashes and buying all of the coins dirt cheap and stocking them could destroy the bitcoin. picture 3 big banks (people) holding all the coins. Than what?

My guess is the demand would go up and people would start trading with the few bitcents floating around.