Stupid assumption about future worth of Bitcoin?

[0x00ff]

Hi there,

I'm pretty new to Bitcoin and do not own much. However, I have an assumtion that I don't know is stupid or not. The following numbers are not by far accurate but I hope they deliver the outlines of what I mean:

Given there was a time I could buy

     10,000 Bitcoins for $10

and I project these numbers onto todays values where

     1/10,000th of the former sum is worth 40 times the value

which equals

     1 Bitcoin is worth $400

is is stupid to assume today that the satoshis that I gather from ie. freebitco.in will in - say 3 years - be also multiplied by the worth of 10,000? Meaning: if I click a week through this Web site and earn 0.00005000 what will be worth $0.02 today - is there a chance that these will be worth $ 200 in 3 years?

I know that I cannot calculate with the exact same growth but I'm interested in the general expectations that maybe you have...

[MAbtc]

Sure, there's a chance. But at some point, this exponential growth will cease, and we will see more stability. However, that stability could be quite a ways off, and we may be due for much more exponential growth. 

[DeathAndTaxes]

Past performance is not a guarantee of future success.

Still if something is worth $0.02 today then it is worth $0.02 today.  Instead of wasting your time of pennies IF (and not saying it will happen) price rises 10,000x wouldn't it be smarter to just buy say $20 worth of Bitcoins and hold them.   Same increase on 1000x as many coins.

[0x00ff]

Past performance is not a guarantee of future success.

Still if something is worth $0.02 today then it is worth $0.02 today.  Instead of wasting your time of pennies IF (and not saying it will happen) price rises 10,000x wouldn't it be smarter to just buy say $20 worth of Bitcoins and hold them.   Same increase on 1000x as many coins.

Hey,

I did buy already. I was just curious to know if these - as you say - pennies given away today could buy your new fridge in a couple of years. I always remember the "pizza thing" which was in one way very good (acceptance of Bitcoin for something from the real-world) but a desaster in the sense of investment.

[wachtwoord]

Past performance is not a guarantee of future success.

Still if something is worth $0.02 today then it is worth $0.02 today.  Instead of wasting your time of pennies IF (and not saying it will happen) price rises 10,000x wouldn't it be smarter to just buy say $20 worth of Bitcoins and hold them.   Same increase on 1000x as many coins.

Hey,

I did buy already. I was just curious to know if these - as you say - pennies given away today could buy your new fridge in a couple of years. I always remember the "pizza thing" which was in one way very good (acceptance of Bitcoin for something from the real-world) but a desaster in the sense of investment.

Pizzas tend to not make very good investments.

[Snail2]

Bitcoin getting mainstream, so you can expect a growing acceptance in the short-medium time future, but don't forget "bitcoin market" is still a rather speculative then real world business thingy so I guess we will see wild swings in the price for a while.

[MAbtc]

Bitcoin getting mainstream, so you can expect a growing acceptance in the short-medium time future, but don't forget "bitcoin market" is still a rather speculative then real world business thingy so I guess we will see wild swings in the price for a while.

Indeed, this market is very speculative. The infrastructure and economy backing BTC is very young. But there is much potential indeed. Anyway, the books on the exchanges are incredibly illiquid, so anyone looking to buy or sell large amounts can't really deal with them. Too much slippage. Hence (in part, anyway) the volatility.

[0x00ff]

I often ask myself where thes price will settle around when the 'system is done and stable'. If a look at todays' price of say around $ 400 per Bitcoin the whole sum of 21 million coins isn't that much. Thus, I speculate, the price will rise for Bitcoin to be able to buy something really big. I mean, if you would try to buy ie. a huge company by Bitcoin it would just allow for exactly on deal. All coins would be needed for that one deal.

The things I currently cannot get are ie.

- What is the Bitcoin way of the "goods that relate to a money supply"? From what I know about money I think (correct me) that money supply should have a relation to the goods available. If the relation is messed up, the "money is messed up".

- How will Bitcoin work (and the acceptance of it) when one has to pay a $10 transaction fee one day?

- How will I be able to send $0.30 in 5 years when the value rises even more?

There are so many questions I come accross...

[Snail2]

Indeed, this market is very speculative. The infrastructure and economy backing BTC is very young. But there is much potential indeed. Anyway, the books on the exchanges are incredibly illiquid, so anyone looking to buy or sell large amounts can't really deal with them. Too much slippage. Hence (in part, anyway) the volatility.

I guess many people expect further rise in prices (to da moon) so they hoarding or at least holding as much as they can.

[Snail2]

- What is the Bitcoin way of the "goods that relate to a money supply"? From what I know about money I think (correct me) that money supply should have a relation to the goods available. If the relation is messed up, the "money is messed up".

- How will Bitcoin work (and the acceptance of it) when one has to pay a $10 transaction fee one day?

- How will I be able to send $0.30 in 5 years when the value rises even more?

There are so many questions I come accross...

I think if the price goes too high there are ways like mastercoin or colored coins to create a higher value yellow bitcoin a lower value silver bitcoin and copper bitcoins. Problem solved .
BTW if you want to send smaller amount there will be litecoin, goldcoin, peercoin, godknowswhatkindofcoin to deal with this.

[Gator-hex]

- What is the Bitcoin way of the "goods that relate to a money supply"? From what I know about money I think (correct me) that money supply should have a relation to the goods available. If the relation is messed up, the "money is messed up".

- How will Bitcoin work (and the acceptance of it) when one has to pay a $10 transaction fee one day?

- How will I be able to send $0.30 in 5 years when the value rises even more?

There are so many questions I come accross...

I think if the price goes too high there are ways like mastercoin or colored coins to create a higher value yellow bitcoin a lower value silver bitcoin and copper bitcoins. Problem solved .
BTW if you want to send smaller amount there will be litecoin, goldcoin, peercoin, godknowswhatkindofcoin to deal with this.

What are you going on about, nobody has to pay a $10 transaction fee, you can pay whatever you want, as long as the fee covers the electricity used in the transaction it'll get processed.

If you made a $1 BTC 0.002 transaction today you could pay a $0.04 BTC 0.0001 fee
and a few year later the same $1 ammount is worth BTC 0.0002 you can pay a similar $0.04 BTC 0.00001 fee

[BarkinTree]

i thought about collecting a few thousand satoshis here and there in case each is worth a dollar someday... it just seems like too much work to deal with faucets, though. need to find more things to sell for bitcoin. 

[Rupture]

Yeah it's likely but maybe over a period of 10 years

[firstlast]

If 1 satoshi was ever worth 1 dollar, the market capitalization of bitcoin would be ~5x the total wealth of the world today. In this highly unlikely scenario, bitcoins would have taken over all the worlds currencies as the primary medium of exchange. We are nowhere near this scenario.

[Arksun]

If 1 satoshi was ever worth 1 dollar, the market capitalization of bitcoin would be ~5x the total wealth of the world today. In this highly unlikely scenario, bitcoins would have taken over all the worlds currencies as the primary medium of exchange. We are nowhere near this scenario.

Absolutely, at the very most 1 Bitcoin could be worth $100,000, but thats EXTREMELY optimistic and highly unrealistic (unless the economy collapses and we get hyper inflation, but then saying something is worth $100,000 won't particuarly mean much anyways).  I personally would not consider putting serious investment into Bitcoins, its more of a punt at this stage. Next weeks discussion at the US Senate are going to be very interesting indeed.

[0x00ff]

After some reading I did over the past month I *optimistically assume for myself* that the price will not be higher than a maximum of $ 3,000 per coin where this amount will not be stable. I assume it to raise this high until say around 2015 and then drop by 33% to finally stay at $ 2,000. That's my guess.

[Kiki112]

well, anyways Bitcoin will certainly increase a lot but the question is how much?
we can't really know but you can try obtaining some BTC and keeping it as it will definitely be a better investment then the stock market or forex

[PenAndPaper]

Since noone did the math 

For your 0.00005 BTC to worth 200$ , 1 BTC should worth 4000000$
The price should rise roughly 18 times per year for the next three years to reach 4 million $.

Imho it's possible