Analysis of previous bubble corrections and impending crash

[TERA]

I have analyzed the bubbles of previous chart and have observed that there were always several corrections to the LONG daily ema (blue line on clarkmoody) which would facilitate capitulation, keep the rally strong and make the new price permanent. When the long daily ema corrections stop, the rally enters into a bubbling mode. The final steps which occur during this stage are:

1. The last correction to the long daily ema.
2. A correction to the short daily ema.
3. A correction above the daily ema.
4. A huge spike followed by the crash



As you can see just like in march/april, we have stopped having corrections to the daily ema, have had a correction to the short daily ema, and have had a correction above the daily emas. At this point we enter into the bubbling mania phase, see a huge spike to ($700?) and then a crash. Maybe this part of my analysis is wrong, but in April the crash ended at the point of the last correction to the long daily ema, which was $50. Ours is around $200. I know $200 sounds ridiculous but that would be the result of us not having any serious corrections earlier and all that pent up dumping needing to occur. We would of course bounce off that level very quickly.

EDIT: I do believe a correction to $200 is unlikely and that $300 is more likely.

[piramida]

Strangely, but I agree with you on where we are in this run up. The dip would be to 300 though, because previous ATH is an unbreakable support (was at $32 last crash and we really only approached levels 2x that). The highs could clip at anything from 700 to four digits.

[TERA]

I agree that $200 is ridiculous and I was going solely by where that last correction was. I think the drop might actually connect with the trendline from October which will be somewhere around $300 at the time.

[windjc]

I have analyzed the bubbles of previous chart and have observed that there were always several corrections to the LONG daily ema (blue line on clarkmoody) which would facilitate capitulation, keep the rally strong and make the new price permanent. When the long daily ema corrections stop, the rally enters into a bubbling mode. The final steps which occur during this stage are:

1. The last correction to the long daily ema.
2. A correction to the short daily ema.
3. A correction above the daily ema.
4. A huge spike followed by the crash



As you can see just like in march/april, we have stopped having corrections to the daily ema, have had a correction to the short daily ema, and have had a correction above the daily emas. At this point we enter into the bubbling mania phase, see a huge spike to ($700?) and then a crash. Maybe this part of my analysis is wrong, but in April the crash ended at the point of the last correction to the long daily ema, which was $50. Ours is around $200. I know $200 sounds ridiculous but that would be the result of us not having any serious corrections earlier and all that pent up dumping needing to occur. We would of course bounce off that level very quickly.

Well we broke out of that bearish wedge

But there is another major factor now ----> China is leading this rally.  Although I think you may be correct. I think we could be in for another major run up, but Gox and Stamp have to get on board. They were not on board when China exploded up to 2600 in less than 5 hours and so the correction was fairly minor, lasting about a day and dipping about 25%-30%.

For us to end this rally for a while, we probably will have to explode upwards with some synchronized momentum. The thing is EVERYONE is expecting a pull back right now. There are several reasons to assume it. Tomorrow is Sunday, the day of the last pull back. Monday and Tuesday are the congressional hearings and a LOT of the early adopters are paranoid anti-government types.  And we are severely over bought.

However, another possibility is we blow through 500 steady as she goes. If we do this, that might be enough to make people buy into a steeper mania, especially if the congressional hearings are seen as bullish.

That could potentially be enough to get everything moving with more speed.

But I agree - barring some real bearish news Mon/Tues or soon, the only way we see $200 again is to fly up fast and furious into the stratosphere.

[DeathAndTaxes]

I think the OP scenario is at least probable but like the other responses I think a fall to $200 is highly unlikely.   Below $350 wouldn't surprise me.  Below $300? Not sure.  I will keep some bids down there but not sure if they will hit.  Below $266 (prior ATH) seems dubious and <$200 just isn't going to happen.

[wopwop]

wat a load of bullshit

[Rupture]

People have been saying for a while they know when it will happen and the prices just keeps climbing merrily

[windjc]

People have been saying for a while they know when it will happen and the prices just keeps climbing merrily

Well, its either going to happen because of a huge run up or because of some bad news. Or a combination of both.

[goxed]

[windjc]

The weekly charts make it look like we have a long way to go in this rally - at least several weeks more which would definitely put us in the stratosphere.

[sukiho]

another interesting graph  is the log all time highs. if it goes past about 520 we enter uncharted territory, perhaps the  start of the mythical s  wave, but historically its only reached this point twice before, at the 30 & 260 bubble tops and  both times there were big corrections

[Wekkel]

Where does your 520 come from?

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

So top out between $800 and maybe $1600? Sounds reasonable, though probably toward the higher end. We haven't even seen any double-exponential growth yet. It'd be a pretty pathetic mania phase if it didn't involve at least one doubling ($1000, from here...but of course there's no accounting for bad news).

I think if we have a mania $266-500 will be support, the new $50 if you will.

Look how earily similar the the last 30 days are to March, even down to slope.



If we follow the same pattern we'll go to $1300 and down to $266-ish, leveling out around $600-700. But history never repeats exactly. Infrastructure is more robust this time, it seems. But to take that into account may be biasing the assumption that MtGox failure ended the April rally prematurely, when it may have just been the straw than broke the back of a severely overheated market.

[sukiho]

Where does your 520 come from?

if you run a line over the highest points of a log chart

[laowai80]

I kinda said the same a week ago here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=328823.msg3538774#msg3538774

but now I am not quite sure, I think maybe we were 1-2 steps below that, meaning we are just now at the March 15-20th price dynamics, but getting closer to the mania stage, definately not mania yet, but getting warmer

[JustAnotherSheep]

So top out between $800 and maybe $1600? Sounds reasonable, though probably toward the higher end. We haven't even seen any double-exponential growth yet. It'd be a pretty pathetic mania phase if it didn't involve at least one doubling ($1000, from here...but of course there's no accounting for bad news).

I think if we have a mania $266-500 will be support, the new $50 if you will.

Look how earily similar the the last 30 days are to March, even down to slope.



If we follow the same pattern we'll go to $1300 and down to $266-ish, leveling out around $600-700. But history never repeats exactly. Infrastructure is more robust this time, it seems. But to take that into account may be biasing the assumption that MtGox failure ended the April rally prematurely, when it may have just been the straw than broke the back of a severely overheated market.

It's amazing how similar it is, maybe my $1200 prediction will come true after all.

[oda.krell]

I have analyzed the bubbles of previous chart and have observed that there were always several corrections to the LONG daily ema (blue line on clarkmoody) which would facilitate capitulation, keep the rally strong and make the new price permanent. When the long daily ema corrections stop, the rally enters into a bubbling mode. The final steps which occur during this stage are:

1. The last correction to the long daily ema.
2. A correction to the short daily ema.
3. A correction above the daily ema.
4. A huge spike followed by the crash



As you can see just like in march/april, we have stopped having corrections to the daily ema, have had a correction to the short daily ema, and have had a correction above the daily emas. At this point we enter into the bubbling mania phase, see a huge spike to ($700?) and then a crash. Maybe this part of my analysis is wrong, but in April the crash ended at the point of the last correction to the long daily ema, which was $50. Ours is around $200. I know $200 sounds ridiculous but that would be the result of us not having any serious corrections earlier and all that pent up dumping needing to occur. We would of course bounce off that level very quickly.

EDIT: I do believe a correction to $200 is unlikely and that $300 is more likely.

Eh. I give you credit for originality, but I doubt you're really onto something there. Just tried it myself, to see with which parameters you got your results, and a) you need to tweak the parameters to make it work both in April and now (as in: short and long daily EMA aren't the same), b) it doesn't fit at all the 2011 run-up. So it looks to me more like the result of curve fitting rather than actually having much predictive power.

[JakeGold]

b) it doesn't fit at all the 2011 run-up. So it looks to me more like the result of curve fitting rather than actually having much predictive power.

The 2011 bubble was a bit of a wash. No one had any clue what bitcoin could do back then. If this run up has any relation to the last two, I'd say it will be more similar to the $260 peak than the $30 one.

[bitjoint]

[jago25_98]

Can we super-impose a graph of Chinese market share onto these graphs. I think that would be very revealing