How much of a bubble is this?

[W-M]

Hey there. I've had my coins locked away for a long time. But yesterday I happened to stumble upon the current Bitcoin price and I was amazed by the sudden rise in value.

However, I do remember the very steep drop that happened half a year ago in April.


So, what do you think? Is the bitcoin going to crash down as fast again this time? Or will it keep on rising, at least for a little while? And why?

[EvilPanda]

I opt for a crash. Price is purely dictated by chinese market. There was no adoption, no major company support and still the price trippled in just a month. China goes up and sudenly all other markets follow without thought. If they decide to sell, for whatever reason, whole world will sell in panic.

[Zakryze]

since we are breaking psychological barriers day by day i think the rise will continue for at least a while. a crash would be fine but i don't think we'll see much of it in the next weeks.

[mvidetto]

I opt for a crash. Price is purely dictated by chinese market. There was no adoption, no major company support and still the price trippled in just a month. China goes up and sudenly all other markets follow without thought. If they decide to sell, for whatever reason, whole world will sell in panic.

Coinbase and mtgox are both above btcchina, I'm not sure how they're following china.  If anything currently china is following the usd/btc.

[billym2k]

This might help give an idea: http://lpplmarketwatch.blogspot.de/2013/11/the-bubble-index-bitcoin-november-16.html

[ardana123]

This might help give an idea: http://lpplmarketwatch.blogspot.de/2013/11/the-bubble-index-bitcoin-november-16.html

What are they saying exactly in that article, besides "there's a bubble and investors should be cautious."?

[billym2k]

Yeah, though I dunno what else there is to say to be honest.

Yes, all indications show we are in a bubble. Nobody knows when it will pop.
Yes, there will be corrections upcoming, possibly steep ones. No one knows when or how steep.
Historically, bubbles have lasted longer than this one before popping. No one knows if that will be the case for this one.

[EvilPanda]

I opt for a crash. Price is purely dictated by chinese market. There was no adoption, no major company support and still the price trippled in just a month. China goes up and sudenly all other markets follow without thought. If they decide to sell, for whatever reason, whole world will sell in panic.

Coinbase and mtgox are both above btcchina, I'm not sure how they're following china.  If anything currently china is following the usd/btc.

Watch the timeline. Today chinese started buying and immediately all other exchanges went up. I was watching the charts today and a minute after a chinese rise there was immediate rush of other exchanges.

[Zarathustra]

October 10 to June 11 we saw a 500-fold price increase. The actual bubble is still very small in relation to that one.

[zeroday]

Who cares if anyway you have your btc value at least doubled in a year, even if you buy at the very peak of the "bubble".

Nobody really knows where is the top and where is the bottom.

It means that 80% of people who sells btc during rally will regret it in the next 12 months. Of course, the lucky 20% of sellers will re-buy cheap and gain more btc.

In Las Vegas you have more chances to win just betting on red or black than while speculating bitcoin.

Still want to gamble?


P.S. I'm talking about assets denominated in bitcoin. If you looks for gaining USD/EUR, just sell now and buy your extra big mac as a prize.

[mvidetto]

Once exchanges start going up $100+ a day, then we are is serious bubble mode.  If it gets to that point I would seriously consider selling.  But, then again I'm just trading on EMA's so it doesn't really matter either way.

[BittBurger]

Its not a bubble.

I repeat.

Its not a bubble.

Bitcoin is NOT A STOCK.

People need to stop comparing it to stock behavior.

Bitcoin is increasing in value as its adoption around the world increases.

The adoption by China caused a $200 jump. 

As other large groups adopt, the value will increase.

Bitcoins "inherent value" is its usefulness around the world.

The more people who use it, the higher the value goes.

This is not a "pretend" stock exhange with "monopoly money" like the financial guys keep babbling about (tulips, beanie babies, etc).

This is a new technology that is about 2% of the way towards worldwide adoption, and its already valued at $500.

Do the math.

[Crazy]

Bitcoins "inherent value" is its usefulness around the world.

Usefulness to... invest and make quick money?

School me on what else people are buying for atm...

[bitcon]

Bitcoins "inherent value" is its usefulness around the world.

Usefulness to... invest and make quick money?

School me on what else people are buying for atm...

future buying power as a tool against moneary inflation

[smoothie]

I opt for a crash. Price is purely dictated by chinese market. There was no adoption, no major company support and still the price trippled in just a month. China goes up and sudenly all other markets follow without thought. If they decide to sell, for whatever reason, whole world will sell in panic.

And that makes sense because?

Chinese adopt it but there is no adoption...lol 

[byronbb]

Its not a bubble.

I repeat.

Its not a bubble.

Bitcoin is NOT A STOCK.

People need to stop comparing it to stock behavior.

Bitcoin is increasing in value as its adoption around the world increases.

The adoption by China caused a $200 jump. 

As other large groups adopt, the value will increase.

Bitcoins "inherent value" is its usefulness around the world.

The more people who use it, the higher the value goes.

This is not a "pretend" stock exhange with "monopoly money" like the financial guys keep babbling about (tulips, beanie babies, etc).

This is a new technology that is about 2% of the way towards worldwide adoption, and its already valued at $500.

Do the math.

This times 100.

[revans]

Bitcoins "inherent value" is its usefulness around the world.

Usefulness to... invest and make quick money?

School me on what else people are buying for atm...

future buying power as a tool against moneary inflation

Which only works if you can

a) get more retailers to accept Bitcoin

b) Find a greater fool so you can cashout into state fiat.


Not much meaningful progress on point a) despite a lot of hyperbole, and b) is only going to get harder as regulators start to turn the screw

[revans]

I opt for a crash. Price is purely dictated by chinese market. There was no adoption, no major company support and still the price trippled in just a month. China goes up and sudenly all other markets follow without thought. If they decide to sell, for whatever reason, whole world will sell in panic.

And that makes sense because?

Chinese adopt it but there is no adoption...lol  

At best the Chinese are doing what everyone else in the bubble is doing; buy Bitcoins in the hope they make a profit. It is not adoption as a currency.

At worst, well I have a paper I'm finishing on this topic. Synopsis: The Bitcoin 'exchanges' and the 'market' they supposedly create are a fraud. Price action is driven by non existent trades on the platforms. The manipulation is now so rampant across competing exchanges that the entire legitimate trading activity of the exchanges is drowned by a sea of fakery. There isn't a single exchange I examined for this research that isn't engaged in this activity.

[Anon136]

I opt for a crash. Price is purely dictated by chinese market. There was no adoption, no major company support and still the price trippled in just a month. China goes up and sudenly all other markets follow without thought. If they decide to sell, for whatever reason, whole world will sell in panic.

And that makes sense because?

Chinese adopt it but there is no adoption...lol  

At best the Chinese are doing what everyone else in the bubble is doing; buy Bitcoins in the hope they make a profit. It is not adoption as a currency.

At worst, well I have a paper I'm finishing on this topic. Synopsis: The Bitcoin 'exchanges' and the 'market' they supposedly create are a fraud. Price action is driven by non existent trades on the platforms. The manipulation is now so rampant across competing exchanges that the entire legitimate trading activity of the exchanges is drowned by a sea of fakery. There isn't a single exchange I examined for this research that isn't engaged in this activity.

evidence please

[theonewhowaskazu]

I opt for a crash. Price is purely dictated by chinese market. There was no adoption, no major company support and still the price trippled in just a month. China goes up and sudenly all other markets follow without thought. If they decide to sell, for whatever reason, whole world will sell in panic.

And that makes sense because?

Chinese adopt it but there is no adoption...lol 

Its because the Chinese don't count, obviously.