Poll - Is the market being manipulated?

[voyagr]

The question is straight forward. My opinion is that the value is artificially pumped, my arguments:

1.   A general sentiment for a crash/correction is telling us the value is generally accepted to be risen too sharply;
2.   The rise in demand in China is given as an explanation for the sharp appreciation. The chart below shows there is no significant change in transactions nor in volume (in BTC), compared with the peaks in April.
3.   Miners (mainly the supply side) got their heavy and expensive equipment in October, November and are trying to ROI .


estimated transaction volume:
http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume

number of transactions per day:
http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

mining operating margin
http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin

[tarmi]

probably it is, but then again, who cares?

ooo, you are a newbie, that explains it. 

welcome to bitcoin.

[voyagr]

probably it is, but then again, who cares?

ooo, you are a newbie, that explains it. 

welcome to bitcoin.

yep, I am but not new to trading

It is not about caring but trading informed. Would you buy your btc @500, if you estimate there are good chances it will drop to 200. Just use your imagination and think of all the profit making possibilities, if we only knew

[Rannasha]

Regarding the chart with transaction-count: Look at the chart that excludes the 100 most popular addresses. This removes gambling stuff like SatoshiDice and focuses more on actual transactions. That chart is showing a consistent growth.

[klee]

I will sell 99% of my coins @4500$ and wait to buy back @1200$

[Wilhelm]

Since alot of people want in and want to make it big bitcoin has become a shark frenzy.
The only real question is will it ever crash and burn.

[YoYa]

Beware the return of.........







































The Manipulator




Muhahahahahhahahhahaha!

[djalexr]

Also, a point with the transaction volume - yeah, the level is staying pretty much consistent with april, but bear in mind that the dollar value per BTC is much higher than before - so one needs to move less bitcoins for a far greater "actual value" dollar transfer. So you would not necessarily expect this to grow significantly, if the price is also rising at such a rate.

[voyagr]

Regarding the chart with transaction-count: Look at the chart that excludes the 100 most popular addresses. This removes gambling stuff like SatoshiDice and focuses more on actual transactions. That chart is showing a consistent growth.

Even there the growth cannot be labeled consistent, there is a shift from November on

[MGUK]

It depends what you define as manipulated:

If I sell one BTC, that price changes. Have I manipulated the markets?

If someone does the same with 1000BTC, is that manipulating the markets?

What if a whale dumps to cause mini panic sell so they can buy back a few % cheaper? Is that manipulation?

If yes to any of the above, then yes, by your definition, market is being manipulated.

If you mean the exchanges are fiddling the numbers, then I doubt it, purely because there's that many exchanges, it would have to be done on all of them.


Regarding your original point 1 & 2, to me, that's just a bubble or hype: price rising rapidly with not much to back it up. The bigger this effect becomes, the more people spot it, the more the confidence in the overinflated price drops, the closer to the pop.

[Loki8]

manipulation, mainstream media attention, greed, chinese enthusiasm...

When something is rare, the Chinese are crazy and can spend much money, the bubble can still grow.

http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-buyer-spends-177000-to-win-rare-barrel-of-burgundy-at-wine-auction-2013-11

[voyagr]

Also, a point with the transaction volume - yeah, the level is staying pretty much consistent with april, but bear in mind that the dollar value per BTC is much higher than before - so one needs to move less bitcoins for a far greater "actual value" dollar transfer. So you would not necessarily expect this to grow significantly, if the price is also rising at such a rate.

yes but this could be explained by the readiness of people, still willing to buy at all cost. So, not necessarily meaning a lot of new people came in to buy.

[voyagr]

It depends what you define as manipulated:

If I sell one BTC, that price changes. Have I manipulated the markets?

If someone does the same with 1000BTC, is that manipulating the markets?

What if a whale dumps to cause mini panic sell so they can buy back a few % cheaper? Is that manipulation?

If yes to any of the above, then yes, by your definition, market is being manipulated.

If you mean the exchanges are fiddling the numbers, then I doubt it, purely because there's that many exchanges, it would have to be done on all of them.


Regarding your original point 1 & 2, to me, that's just a bubble or hype: price rising rapidly with not much to back it up. The bigger this effect becomes, the more people spot it, the more the confidence in the overinflated price drops, the closer to the pop.

All are some forms of manipulation. It depends on your possession and the liquidity on the market. If you have 1 BTC on a market with 2 BTC liquidity, yes you can manipulate the market and finally you will because you are doing this for profit. 

I do not believe either exchanges are fiddling the numbers. However what could be possible is that miners are intuitively holding back to ROI

[niothor]

Regarding the chart with transaction-count: Look at the chart that excludes the 100 most popular addresses. This removes gambling stuff like SatoshiDice and focuses more on actual transactions. That chart is showing a consistent growth.

That consistent growth , can it explain a 100x price?. With just an average of 60k from 30k total transactions , it's clear that not adoption or usage is driving the price up.

[voyagr]

They also changed the leverage of 10:1 to 2:1 and increase the margin and they increased the comission to 8$ per bitcoin traded! Shocked

I've just seen in a different thread that Plus500 changed the leverage ratio to 1:1. Why would they have done that ??

[AlgoSwan]

I will sell 99% of my coins @4500$ and wait to buy back @1200$

Excellent plan.

[crazy_rabbit]

It's being manipulated by the press.

[voyagr]

It's being manipulated by the press.

Really? Seriously, why do you think so?

[Loki8]

The Chinese totally drive the price up

[voyagr]

It depends what you define as manipulated:

If I sell one BTC, that price changes. Have I manipulated the markets?

If someone does the same with 1000BTC, is that manipulating the markets?

What if a whale dumps to cause mini panic sell so they can buy back a few % cheaper? Is that manipulation?

If yes to any of the above, then yes, by your definition, market is being manipulated.

If you mean the exchanges are fiddling the numbers, then I doubt it, purely because there's that many exchanges, it would have to be done on all of them.


Regarding your original point 1 & 2, to me, that's just a bubble or hype: price rising rapidly with not much to back it up. The bigger this effect becomes, the more people spot it, the more the confidence in the overinflated price drops, the closer to the pop.

All are some forms of manipulation. It depends on your possession and the liquidity on the market. If you have 1 BTC on a market with 2 BTC liquidity, yes you can manipulate the market and finally you will because you are doing this for profit. 

I do not believe either exchanges are fiddling the numbers. However what could be possible is that miners are intuitively holding back to ROI

Then what's the point of the poll? 

Obviously some of this stuff is going on. It's just a matter of how much effect it has on the price. I don't think we've seen any real effective manipulators yet on this rally. It's just bubble mentality.

You'll discover it all by yourself if you read on..

It could be a bubble but a bubble is rather slumbering. Here it is quite obvious or may be it is just paranoia