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Author Topic: 8/2/11 Downturn / Speculation Thread  (Read 1784 times)
tacotime
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August 02, 2011, 06:02:46 PM
 #1

Volumes on Mtgox appear to be pushing the price down to stabilize around 11.5-12$ USD

CAD and GBP markets are getting hammered because the UK and Canada have less faith in BTC, particularly Canada.  Buying BTC from Canada and reselling on Mtgox right now should net a healthy 4-8% until the slide at Mtgox stops.  Canada buyer volumes are particularly bad right now, expect price to hit $9-10 CAD by the end of the day unless there is a turnaround at Mtgox

Trade volume at Mtgox is heavy, which is good.  A small downturn is the inevitable effect of increasing difficulty as users cash out because of reduced profitability, so I would expect price to rise later this week as BTC become more scarce from the greater difficulty and the people who are selling off diminish.  DJIA/S&P 500 also hit hard today so speculative investors may also be trying to cut their losses and sell off.

Code:
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Dargo
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August 02, 2011, 07:03:30 PM
 #2

I agree that today's action may be part of a more general pattern of unwinding risk. I'm totally agnostic though about how far it will go or when it will rebound.
tacotime
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August 02, 2011, 09:54:05 PM
 #3

As predicted the canadian market is almost bereft of buyers...  Right now the only offers are for 7 bitcoins total at the $10 mark, the rest are $3 or lower

Buyer volume is dead on Mtgox, expect the price to fall further.  Britcoin volumes for buyers are also down

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drripple
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August 03, 2011, 12:01:45 AM
 #4

Markets all around today sucked . .

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Bikerbum
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August 03, 2011, 12:55:44 AM
 #5

Markets all around today sucked . .

You're not kidding. Thank those idiots in Washington, DC for that. Then they left for vacation. What a country.

CAUTION!  I MAY CONTAIN MORE THAN A TRACE AMOUNT OF NUTZ   !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
indio007
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August 03, 2011, 01:03:06 AM
 #6

Why is no one considering that it's the beginning of the month and people have bills to pay. It isn't a stretch of logic that the people with the most bitcoins most likely also have the most overhead in mining them. A small $2 price difference to someone with 10K BTC is thousands of dollars.
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August 03, 2011, 02:58:28 AM
 #7

Why is no one considering that it's the beginning of the month and people have bills to pay. It isn't a stretch of logic that the people with the most bitcoins most likely also have the most overhead in mining them. A small $2 price difference to someone with 10K BTC is thousands of dollars.

This might be part of the story. We also saw a dip in early July. Several elements lining up today for a sell off.
indio007
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August 03, 2011, 03:03:53 AM
 #8

I'm just saying it created a downward pressure. Psychology takes over other players. I also think Mtgox has been getting manipulated by bots for the past 3 weeks.  It wouldn't be that hard for a wanna be Hunt Brother to attempt to corner the market.
tacotime
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August 03, 2011, 04:18:04 AM
 #9

Quote
Psychology takes over other players.

Yup.  Everyone's following the screaming advice of poor bipolar Mr. Market.

Seems I hit the end of the day price pretty dead on, but the Mtgox volumes are still looking kind of poor.  People have meanwhile been flocking to the Canadian Virtex exchange like nuts to try to profit on the almost 15% lower price of bitcoins there.  Britcoin volumes looking particularly unhealthy now; maybe the next major site of forex attack.

Code:
XMR: 44GBHzv6ZyQdJkjqZje6KLZ3xSyN1hBSFAnLP6EAqJtCRVzMzZmeXTC2AHKDS9aEDTRKmo6a6o9r9j86pYfhCWDkKjbtcns
UrbanAdventurer
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August 03, 2011, 05:50:51 AM
 #10

Another difficulty drop or two with the downturn and namecoin will be more profitable again.
Dargo
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August 03, 2011, 02:58:57 PM
 #11

Thoughts on where price is headed? I think we may test 10, and maybe even a little lower, before we see a rebound.
Answer42
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August 03, 2011, 03:07:16 PM
 #12

It was my understanding that someone sold a massive amount of BTC, like 17k.  Perhaps the MyBitcoin Wallet guy just sold it all back to us.
tacotime
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August 03, 2011, 05:26:15 PM
 #13

Thoughts on where price is headed? I think we may test 10, and maybe even a little lower, before we see a rebound.

Volume buyer side is massively high right now on Mtgox, expect the price to be pushed back up to 11-12 if the current trader volume keeps up.  Cavirtex is finally even (and even behind a little), expect CAD prices 9-10 by the end of the day.  The best bargain for buyers right now is at Britcoin which is highly devalued and has a huge buyer volume.  Britcoin will probably surge back into the 7's by the end of the day.

If you're careful about forex trading over the next few days you could probably pull 20-25% as the huge selloff seems to now be over from the trade volume.

Code:
XMR: 44GBHzv6ZyQdJkjqZje6KLZ3xSyN1hBSFAnLP6EAqJtCRVzMzZmeXTC2AHKDS9aEDTRKmo6a6o9r9j86pYfhCWDkKjbtcns
wilburyan
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August 03, 2011, 05:50:57 PM
 #14

to all the panic sellers... you're gonna be cryin' when it jumps back up just as fast.
wilburyan
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August 03, 2011, 06:01:53 PM
 #15

lol... like I said... back up we go :p.

someone with a lot of coins is shakin' the tree... and a lot of branches are fallin :p
indio007
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August 03, 2011, 06:11:51 PM
 #16

to all the panic sellers... you're gonna be cryin' when it jumps back up just as fast.


^^^^ THIS


WTF do they  think all the buyers are going to do with their bitcoins. This isn't a zero sum game.

There is a sucker born every minute. This market is flushing out the leverage or people that don't have the funds to cushion a downturn.

Glad I'm neither of these.
mb300sd
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August 03, 2011, 07:00:44 PM
 #17

I'm trying to get in before it goes back up, but dwolla takes forever to do a bank transfer...

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Bboyd8907@yahoo.com
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August 03, 2011, 07:07:50 PM
 #18

I'm trying to get in before it goes back up, but dwolla takes forever to do a bank transfer...

GOD, tell me about it. It is the longest effin process in history. Trying to find a way around that, but it's not workin out so well.
Dargo
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August 03, 2011, 07:09:59 PM
 #19

According to bitcoin charts, price dipped below 10, and is now back above on heavy volume. That was more or less what I was expecting, but wasn't necessarily expecting it to happen today. Let's hope this is the bottom near term at least. I'm not trading BTC, just mining and holding, but for traders, buying here, perhaps with a stop below today's low, strikes me a good buy.
UrbanAdventurer
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August 06, 2011, 07:09:35 AM
 #20

back down we go
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