xPredict™ - Multi exchange Prediction Service Result

[MAbtc]

I'd love to hear an update, spndr7!

[spndr7]

Long term perspective from now:

Market would trade between 623 to 778 band till January 9,2014 (if any extreme news doesn't come in this period),although there is chance of break of this upper-band in next 5 days .

Today's signal

[Honeypot]

Long term perspective from now:

Market would trade between 623 to 778 band till January 9,2014 (if any extreme news doesn't come in this period),although there is chance of break of this upper-band in next 5 days .

Today's signal

What about jan 9th - do you expect it to skyrocket? What is the significance of jan 9th?

[spndr7]

What about jan 9th - do you expect it to skyrocket? What is the significance of jan 9th?

Can't be said anything from now,but now market is near to the identical positive volumes (that propelled it to 1090 on 30 Nov 2013).

If the surge continues, market may breach resistance 778, in 3-5 days. After that breach, it can easily go till 960.

[MatTheCat]

Can't be said anything from now,but now market is near to the identical positive volumes (that propelled it to 1090 on 30 Nov 2013).

If the surge continues, market may breach resistance 778, in 3-5 days. After that breach, it can easily go till 960.

And what will the market do if China say:

"We have changed our minds! We think Bitcoin is really cool, everyone pile in!"

Or if they instead say:

"Right, Bitcoin is now illegal in China. Anyone found in possession of Bitcoin or doing Bitcoin transactions will be considered a traitor to China and tried accordingly"

Where is the single most make or break issue affecting Bitcoin in this present time, reflected in your charts? Afterall, we know that the ball is going to land somewhere in between those two extremes and we know that when it does, the impact on Bitcoin will be huge either way.

[spndr7]

Markets could easily drop to 634 to 645 in next 48 hours from now.

[arepo]

Markets could easily drop to 634 to 645 in next 48 hours from now.

care to explain what exactly is the bearish signal here? all i see is a divergent consolidation channel, at the end of which one would expect a resumption of the uptrend from $600.

[spndr7]

care to explain what exactly is the bearish signal here?

It can break 705 level bollinger band,due to recent negative volume.

all i see is a divergent consolidation channel, at the end of which one would expect a resumption of the uptrend from $600.

My prediction is more or less the same (resistance at 623 level).

[arepo]

Markets could easily drop to 634 to 645 in next 48 hours from now.

it is farthest from my wishes to hijack your thread, but i do believe that this kind of discussion between analyses is constructive for both parties, thank you.

if you would consider:



two possible moving supports on the 6-hour RSI, both robust with 3 points of contact. the most recent bounce off of BLACK corresponds with the price threatening to break out of its lower bollinger band in your figure. as a side note, it is always wonderful to see agreement between two technical measures as it is one of the few ways to show empirical consistency in this practice.

anyway, i do think it was a bit premature to call bear as the moving supports are quite robust -- as i mentioned in an earlier post, supporting this rally from $600. sure enough, we bounced and the picture still looks rather bullish to me if we factor in other indicators and the large volume corresponding with the bottom under $400.

unless we actually break under this support, there is no bear signal i can see.

--arepo

[spndr7]

two possible moving supports on the 6-hour RSI, both robust with 3 points of contact. the most recent bounce off of BLACK corresponds with the price threatening to break out of its lower bollinger band in your figure. as a side note, it is always wonderful to see agreement between two technical measures as it is one of the few ways to show empirical consistency in this practice.


unless we actually break under this support, there is no bear signal i can see.

--arepo

Thanks for comparing your analysis with mine, and deriving insightful conclusions.

There is a chance to cross that RSI support,even after the third bounce (as indicated in your graph)

Where is the single most make or break issue affecting Bitcoin in this present time, reflected in your charts?

Market would trade between 623 to 778 band till January 9,2014 (if any extreme news doesn't come in this period),although there is chance of break of this upper-band in next 4 days .

[hdbuck]

@ spndr7 & arepo : so if i am understanding what you are saying, for the next 5-10days, there is an up band at aruond 770 from which it could then skyrocket to 900ish and a low band at around 705 where it could then drop to 600ish.. or have i completely misunderstood?!

edit: I figured that between 700-750 is the correct price for bitcoin ATM and considering all the recent fuzz around it

[spndr7]

@ spndr7 & arepo : so if i am understanding what you are saying, for the next 5-10days, there is an up band at aruond 770 from which it could then skyrocket to 900ish and a low band at around 705 where it could then drop to 600ish.. or have i completely misunderstood?!

edit: I figured that between 700-750 is the correct price for bitcoin ATM and considering all the recent fuzz around it

You have compeltely understood, and your comment is a precise summary of our recent discussion.

[YoYa]

arepo - Is this our bear signal crossing the RSI support?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hg02ySmu/

Seems we got MACD cross hitting on the same timeframe as well. I'm still on the fence as to how things will work out, but watching closely.

[arepo]

arepo - Is this our bear signal crossing the RSI support?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hg02ySmu/

Seems we got MACD cross hitting on the same timeframe as well. I'm still on the fence as to how things will work out, but watching closely.

that flash crash was strange. sort of like a long squeeze. heavy volume over a very short period and then a rapid recovery.

it is true that it caused the RSI to break below the moving support. however, this alone is still not necessarily bearish. on the other hand, the bullish picture is gone. we seem to have a strong moving support but low weekend volume butting the price against a significant resistance. i would expect sideways consolidation until we can get enough volume for the market to make a decision either way.

--arepo

[oda.krell]

arepo - Is this our bear signal crossing the RSI support?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hg02ySmu/

Seems we got MACD cross hitting on the same timeframe as well. I'm still on the fence as to how things will work out, but watching closely.

that flash crash was strange. sort of like a long squeeze. heavy volume over a very short period and then a rapid recovery.

it is true that it caused the RSI to break below the moving support. however, this alone is still not necessarily bearish. on the other hand, the bullish picture is gone. we seem to have a strong moving support but low weekend volume butting the price against a significant resistance. i would expect sideways consolidation until we can get enough volume for the market to make a decision either way.

--arepo

Not sure how much value you place on this kind of (order book based) observation, but I noticed that in the last 24h, the bid/ask ratios across mtgox, bitstamp and btcchina are all recovering quite significantly. For the past few days they were more or less universally in decline (despite price staying mostly stable), but this situation is turning around. I'm going from "undecided" (my sentiment yesterday) to "mildly sure the consolidation resolves upwards" because of the previous observation.

[segeln]

in the first bubble

Are you sure you know what a bubble is?

[T.Stuart]

in the first bubble

Are you sure you know what a bubble is?

Trolling over the word "bubble" ! 

[oda.krell]

Aaand here we go...

Not sure how much staying power this one has, but it's nice to see an upward breakout like that.

[spndr7]

in the first bubble

Are you sure you know what a bubble is?

Trolling over the word "bubble" !  

Economic Bubble - wikipedia abstract

An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania or a balloon) is "trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values". It could also be described as a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future.
Because it is often difficult to observe intrinsic values in real-life markets, bubbles are often conclusively identified only in retrospect, when a sudden drop in prices appears. Such a drop is known as a crash or a bubble burst. Both the boom and the burst phases of the bubble are examples of a positive feedback mechanism, in contrast to the negative feedback mechanism that determines the equilibrium price under normal market circumstances. Prices in an economic bubble can fluctuate erratically, and become impossible to predict from supply and demand alone.

While some economists deny that bubbles occur, the cause of bubbles remains disputed by those who are convinced that asset prices often deviate strongly from intrinsic values. Many explanations have been suggested, and research has recently shown that bubbles may appear even without uncertainty, speculation, or bounded rationality.

Going through the definition,it is clear that I have not  'trolled over the word "bubble" '.

If I was trolling my estimations would n't have been consistency correct.

Bitcoin price jumped from 20 $ to 263 $,last lowest level was 75 $, so taking the same ratio, crash may happen at 986 USD/BTC.

This estimation was correct as the maximum price (@ BTC-e) went upto 1080 USD/BTC on 30 November 2013,which is within +/- 9.5 %  

The time (November 19, 2013, 12:10 AM UTC) when prediction was made, bitcoin was trading at 560 USD(which was all time high till then).

Today's indicator :

Market will move between 716 to 734 today.

[spndr7]

Previous day's result

Market will move between 716 to 734 today.

Market went till 737 (accuracy : +/- 0.4 %)


Today's signal
If the price goes below 716 level for more than 1 hour, then it could fall down to 712 level, within next 12 hrs.

If the support at 712 is broken,then could slide down to 690 level.