Hypothesis: BTCChina is completely fake (with evidence)

[GigaCoin]

More and more am I starting to believe that BTCChina is (for a large part) fake.

- Their volume reports are ridiculous. On the 3 minute chart they have almost exclusively 300 btc per candlestick.
- The whole rise-up at BTC-China seems orchestrated. Every sharp rise is nicely crafted into a short dip which then recovers in order to make others believe that it's safe to buy

And most compellingly

- During the crash the volume stays _THE SAME_ throughout. There is a sharp drop, but no panic selling at all! The volume is constant. This does not make any sense to me.
- Notice how every downward candle towards is also attempted to be caugt immediately - many many intermittent recoveries during a crash. It just doesn't make sense.
- I think we all agree that the price movements at BTCChina have been absolutely ridiculous.

It's almost as if the whole exchange is scripted to make fake orders to amplify any movements seen on Gox. Zero trading fees would allow this.

What would they benefit from this?

Manipulation. This whole rally is based upon "China is going crazy, we must buy asap!". Knowing that the bitcoin world classifies exchanges by price and volume, you can manipulate the entire market by gaining the highest price and the highest volume. This does not mean the trades have to be legitimate as well, as long as the data you're outputting is somewhat believable. The rally on china seemed so ridiculous, that I'd be inclined to think that BTCChina's CEO has some big money at the other exchanges, trading it for high prices as he indirectly has control over the market.


Added facts:

- Nobody seems to be able to access btcchina.com, yet trades are still being executed (do reply if you can reach and deposit BTC)
- During the 7-8 hour Gox trading engine lag, BTCChina ground to a halt as well while BTC-e and Bitstamp continued to have organic trades (though lower average volume).
- Look at this recent crash graph from BTCChina (linked from another topic). It does not look organic, yet highly artificial.





Please discuss Also, === I'm merely speculating ==

i highly doubt this, BTCChina's ownership is very legit and reliable. They are very serious about their business unlike mtgox

[Zooey]

[bitjoint]

More and more am I starting to believe that BTCChina is (for a large part) fake.

- Their volume reports are ridiculous. On the 3 minute chart they have almost exclusively 300 btc per candlestick.
- The whole rise-up at BTC-China seems orchestrated. Every sharp rise is nicely crafted into a short dip which then recovers in order to make others believe that it's safe to buy

Dude, you forgot the image!!!

[BitcoinBarrel]

I don't know why everyone is defending BTCChina when they are new, and no one knows much about them...

[tutkarz]

I don't know why everyone is defending BTCChina when they are new, and no one knows much about them...

soo because they are new we have to assume they don't exist ... okay ...

[Zooey]

WAIT a minute... 

[Sage]

When you post a picture of the 1 minute chart, yeah things might look a little off.

Also the rally/slight dip pattern you're seeing is normal... called a bear trap. On the way down it's a bull trap.

The point I wanted to make is that stock exchanges never make perfect semicircles. If you watch the same periods at BTC-e and Bitstamp for example, the pattern is way more frizzly, more noisy. This one is just perfectly orchestrated. Now i know Chinese have a-diciprine and all, but this just does not look human/organic.

After reading charts for years, I would have to agree.  The tops don't look typical in this chart.

Why that is though?  Anyone's guess.

Even so, this bubble was easy to spot... and easy to profit from.

Thank God for China

EDIT:  BTW a fully decentralized exchange system would make any kind of manipulation you postulate infinitely harder.  We need a decentralized exchange.

Checkout Invictus Innovations.  Through them a few bones if you can.  They are working on stuff that, more then anything else I've seen, are laying the groundwork for the decentralized exchange and technical infrastructure that will lead to mass adoption we are all craving for.

[antoineph]

Chinese exchanges still going strong.. some exchanges still trading above $800. The rest of the world is refusing to believe bitcoin is worth so much... meanwhile potential massive chance to make money for those who are willing to sell coins on those sites. Is it the Chinese who didn't get the memo, or is it us? We will see soon enough.

http://btckan.com/price

[Zooey]

If there's one thing the Chinese have demonstrated over and again, it's that they don't need anyone else to party-hardcore. 

[Terpie]

Chinese exchanges still going strong.. some exchanges still trading above $800. The rest of the world is refusing to believe bitcoin is worth so much... meanwhile potential massive chance to make money for those who are willing to sell coins on those sites. Is it the Chinese who didn't get the memo, or is it us? We will see soon enough.

http://btckan.com/price

Where are these volume #s coming from? Seems insanely high for some unknown exchanges. Is it because they have zero fees?

[antoineph]

Chinese exchanges still going strong.. some exchanges still trading above $800. The rest of the world is refusing to believe bitcoin is worth so much... meanwhile potential massive chance to make money for those who are willing to sell coins on those sites. Is it the Chinese who didn't get the memo, or is it us? We will see soon enough.

http://btckan.com/price

Where are these volume #s coming from? Seems insanely high for some unknown exchanges. Is it because they have zero fees?

I believe this question, along with "why such a high price in China", is the basis of the aforementioned conspiracy theory.
I don't think there's a conspiracy, and I do think there's a bitcoin frenzy in China. Somebody at some point is likely to take advantage of it and collect a lot of Yuan.

[sgbett]

WAIT a minute... 

these bit coins, how do they taste?

[sgbett]

What??  The Chinese are capable of lying, cheating and/or stealing?

Anyone who has dealt with the Chinese, knows.

Thank you, Boxman90, for reminding us who we are dealing with....

%s/the chinese/people/

srsly, don't be a dick.

[humanitee]

LOL

They get 5 million in venture capital for not existing.

Great theory OP, see you in the psychiatric ward!

[revans]

More and more am I starting to believe that BTCChina is (for a large part) fake.

- Their volume reports are ridiculous. On the 3 minute chart they have almost exclusively 300 btc per candlestick.
- The whole rise-up at BTC-China seems orchestrated. Every sharp rise is nicely crafted into a short dip which then recovers in order to make others believe that it's safe to buy

And most compellingly

- During the crash the volume stays _THE SAME_ throughout. There is a sharp drop, but no panic selling at all! The volume is constant. This does not make any sense to me.
- Notice how every downward candle towards is also attempted to be caugt immediately - many many intermittent recoveries during a crash. It just doesn't make sense.
- I think we all agree that the price movements at BTCChina have been absolutely ridiculous.

It's almost as if the whole exchange is scripted to make fake orders to amplify any movements seen on Gox. Zero trading fees would allow this.

What would they benefit from this?

Manipulation. This whole rally is based upon "China is going crazy, we must buy asap!". Knowing that the bitcoin world classifies exchanges by price and volume, you can manipulate the entire market by gaining the highest price and the highest volume. This does not mean the trades have to be legitimate as well, as long as the data you're outputting is somewhat believable. The rally on china seemed so ridiculous, that I'd be inclined to think that BTCChina's CEO has some big money at the other exchanges, trading it for high prices as he indirectly has control over the market.


Added facts:

- Nobody seems to be able to access btcchina.com, yet trades are still being executed (do reply if you can reach and deposit BTC)
- During the 7-8 hour Gox trading engine lag, BTCChina ground to a halt as well while BTC-e and Bitstamp continued to have organic trades (though lower average volume).
- Look at this recent crash graph from BTCChina (linked from another topic). It does not look organic, yet highly artificial.





Please discuss Also, === I'm merely speculating ==

I posted yesterday that I have a paper coming out that proves not only BTC-C, but all major exchanges are engaged in creating a completely fictitious market. I have contacted the exchanges I have investigated for comment prior to publishing.

[Parazyd]

Nice move BTCChina, bravo! 

[tarmi]

but one must admit that the chart looks very smooth.

[antoineph]

I posted yesterday that I have a paper coming out that proves not only BTC-C, but all major exchanges are engaged in creating a completely fictitious market. I have contacted the exchanges I have investigated for comment prior to publishing.

All major chinese exchanges, or all major exchanges period? Which exchanges did you investigate? Do you have any info that you can share with us now?

[Zooey]

You know, I do find it odd that the Chinese state hasn't been inclined to place any restrictions upon Bitcoin (the most subversive technology on the planet) when they go to particularly extensive lengths to restrict pretty much everything else.  Maybe they just dropped the ball on this one, and recognise it's not really the sort that's easy to pick back up and take away, or maybe they got eyes on this early on and, while our western-dictorcrats spent all year unhelpfully dicking about with how to most regulate & adulterate Bitcoin, maybe they saw an opportunity for the taking; I wonder.

[edit; typo & I'll be looking for your report about this proof you've got + the exchanges responses (I trust you've got hold of gox staff straight away on irc, no? MagicalTux weighed in with a word?]

[jl2012]

As I said in the other thread, I can ALWAYS sell at those insane high price and get the CNY in my account within 24 hours. So the price is REAL. The volume is inflated simply due to free transaction.

Their site may be down from time to time, but that's nothing worse than gox or stamp

In addition to btcchina, I can also sell on other Chinese exchanges with similar price and received CNY withdraw too.