oda.krell (OP)
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Activity: 1470
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November 19, 2013, 05:12:18 PM |
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The disconnect is staggering, no? I mean, I got used to mtgox prices being 10% higher than bitstamp, but right now it's more than 20%, and China's price is just plain unreal considering how much lower Bitstamp is.
What do you expect to happen? China pulling the rest up again, or the Bitstamp pulling everyone down? Or will it stay the way it is? After all, arbitrage between exchanges seems to be slow and not very effective in the past.
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N12
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November 19, 2013, 05:14:48 PM |
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Aahh, the efficiency of a "billion dollar market".  Wait, is it 9 billion or 6 billion? |
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Nemesis
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November 19, 2013, 05:15:20 PM |
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The disconnect is staggering, no? I mean, I got used to mtgox prices being 10% higher than bitstamp, but right now it's more than 20%, and China's price is just plain unreal considering how much lower Bitstamp is.
What do you expect to happen? China pulling the rest up again, or the Bitstamp pulling everyone down? Or will it stay the way it is? After all, arbitrage between exchanges seems to be slow and not very effective in the past.
Just another theory of mine: Chinese buying BTC to transfer money/wealth oversea. Guess where do they dump their coins? |
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Zangelbert Bingledack
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Activity: 1036
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November 19, 2013, 05:16:17 PM |
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2011 bubble meets 2013 bubble. Clash of the bubbles. China want to have its 2011 insanity and Gox and Stamp were too recently burned and are exercising moderation. What will be the result? It may just be an average of the two, or it may be radically unpredictable.
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NorbyTheGeek
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November 19, 2013, 05:17:18 PM |
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Just another theory of mine:
Chinese buying BTC to transfer money/wealth oversea. Guess where do they dump their coins?
See, you're guilty of using sound logic on a speculation forum. Shame on you.  |
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Barek
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November 19, 2013, 05:17:34 PM |
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Similar reasons.
Hard to get USD out of MtGox.
Hard to get CNY out of China.
With high enough arbitrage opportunities, I bet sooner or later someone will figure out how to take advantage and prices will be closer.
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oda.krell (OP)
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November 19, 2013, 05:18:48 PM |
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Aahh, the efficiency of a "billion dollar market". Wait, is it 9 billion or 6 billion? That one cuts both ways, no? "Aah, the inefficiency of the legacy banking system, and political limitations of transfer of wealth that allow such a disconnect to persist." |
Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure. Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
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gizmoh
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November 19, 2013, 05:19:14 PM |
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China really doesn't give a fuck, and will scoop cheap coins on Stamp and lift us up.
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Zangelbert Bingledack
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Activity: 1036
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November 19, 2013, 05:19:41 PM |
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Price was rising too fast to make arbitrage profitable except in the more extreme cases. The lost time exposed to Bitcoin just hurt too much. If the price stops rising we'll see more arbitrage I think.
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Nemesis
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November 19, 2013, 05:20:48 PM |
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Similar reasons.
Hard to get USD out of MtGox.
Hard to get CNY out of China.
With high enough arbitrage opportunities, I bet sooner or later someone will figure out how to take advantage and prices will be closer.
I can tell you that someone right now.... having known China country..... That someone is simply Chinese officials, possibly working for their central banks. The Chinese ppl know their officials can transfer millions USD out of the country. BTC will even make it easier and more discrete. |
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CoinHoarder
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In Cryptocoins I Trust
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November 19, 2013, 05:21:18 PM |
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The disconnect is staggering, no? I mean, I got used to mtgox prices being 10% higher than bitstamp, but right now it's more than 20%, and China's price is just plain unreal considering how much lower Bitstamp is.
What do you expect to happen? China pulling the rest up again, or the Bitstamp pulling everyone down? Or will it stay the way it is? After all, arbitrage between exchanges seems to be slow and not very effective in the past.
Just another theory of mine: Chinese buying BTC to transfer money/wealth oversea. Guess where do they dump their coins? Ummm... it seems like there are much cheaper options for getting their money overseas. It seems unlikely to me that they take a huge haircut (>$1000 -> <$750). I think the more realistic scenario is that foreigners (non-chinese) will transfer their BTCs over to BTC China seeing they can get over $300 more per Bitcoin at the moment than Mt. Gox. This will level out the market in between MtGox and BTC China. The rest of the world will adjust the Chinese market price. I think a lot of Chinese buyers on BTC China are about to get burned. |
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Nemesis
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November 19, 2013, 05:24:01 PM |
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The disconnect is staggering, no? I mean, I got used to mtgox prices being 10% higher than bitstamp, but right now it's more than 20%, and China's price is just plain unreal considering how much lower Bitstamp is.
What do you expect to happen? China pulling the rest up again, or the Bitstamp pulling everyone down? Or will it stay the way it is? After all, arbitrage between exchanges seems to be slow and not very effective in the past.
Just another theory of mine: Chinese buying BTC to transfer money/wealth oversea. Guess where do they dump their coins? Ummm... it seems like there are much cheaper options for getting their money overseas. It seems unlikely to me that they take a huge haircut (>$1000 -> <$750). I think the more realistic scenario is that foreigners (non-chinese) will transfer their BTCs over to BTC China seeing they can get over $300 more per Bitcoin at the moment than Mt. Gox. This will level out the market in between MtGox and BTC China. The rest of the world will adjust the Chinese market price. I think a lot of Chinese buyers on BTC China are about to get burned. Those cheapers options are not actually cheap if you consider the risk of having caught. I've done a large transfer of USD funds from China to US. I had to use "middle man" service in HK. And its VERY risky. Other than having connection with Chinese Officials you cant do any transfer in large amount for personal banking. |
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bitcoinBull
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rippleFanatic
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November 19, 2013, 05:42:48 PM |
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After all, arbitrage between exchanges seems to be slow and not very effective in the past.
Yes, that's because most exchanges are still relying 100% on bank transfers for moving fiat. The spreads will come down as more exchanges become ripple gateways (bitstamp was the first, kraken is next in line). |
College of Bucking Bulls Knowledge
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antimattercrusader
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November 19, 2013, 05:48:49 PM |
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As far as I know, it's not hard to wire money our of China. I receive wires from China occasionally - once CampBX gets ACH online I may dabble in some arbitrage. I bet alot of other people will too, and the price will equalize.
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BTC: 13WYhobWLHRMvBwXGq5ckEuUyuDPgMmHuK
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Terpie
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November 19, 2013, 06:17:26 PM |
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After all, arbitrage between exchanges seems to be slow and not very effective in the past.
Yes, that's because most exchanges are still relying 100% on bank transfers for moving fiat. The spreads will come down as more exchanges become ripple gateways (bitstamp was the first, kraken is next in line). And that solves the problem of bank transfers, how? |
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smurf2094
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November 19, 2013, 06:20:49 PM |
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So you know how we have a forum for talking about bitcoin...
Does China have a forum just like us where they discuss bitcoin? They most likely do but, what's the site..?
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Cryddit
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November 19, 2013, 06:23:13 PM |
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The current situation drastically favors anyone who has the means already in place to exchange EUR/CY.
Good grief, if I had an effective wire transfer/conversion channel right now (which a lot of bankers do) I would be making money hand over fist.
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wachtwoord
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November 19, 2013, 06:36:35 PM |
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Just another theory of mine:
Chinese buying BTC to transfer money/wealth oversea. Guess where do they dump their coins?
See, you're guilty of using sound logic on a speculation forum. Shame on you. Hey that would be so cool! And the real value would be somewhere in between  |
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bitcoinBull
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rippleFanatic
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November 19, 2013, 06:47:20 PM |
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After all, arbitrage between exchanges seems to be slow and not very effective in the past.
Yes, that's because most exchanges are still relying 100% on bank transfers for moving fiat. The spreads will come down as more exchanges become ripple gateways (bitstamp was the first, kraken is next in line). And that solves the problem of bank transfers, how? Because when an exchange becomes a ripple gateway, you can withdraw fiat IOUs and trade them for another exchange's fiat IOUs. Which you can then redeem (deposit) at the other exchange. Presto, fiat moved without a bank transfer. |
College of Bucking Bulls Knowledge
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N12
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November 19, 2013, 06:53:49 PM |
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bitcoinBull, XRP have all the same properties as BTC (no counterparty risk, limited in amount, pseudonymous). If we are going to use Ripple, why not switch to XRP entirely? Don't forget that Bitcoins within the Ripple system are merely IOUs issued by exchanges, only XRP can be held without counterparty risk, so they are inherently inferior.
I don't understand that.
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