Mtgox, Bitstamp "Let's calm down": 700, 550$. China "I don't give a fuck": 900$.

[BitcoinTraderFX]

China is a big place. By that I mean that its a big market to over the next weeks or months to accumulate bitcoin, driving the price higher.

I think Europe and the US has exhausted its "newbie buy-in", and China may not have exhausted its.

There will still be some Americans and Europeans that learn about bitcoin and buy some, but the huge rush has hit already (for now).

[dancupid]

China is a closed economy - there are few arbitrage opportunities, and the bitcoins available in China are limited to the people in China who managed to get hold of them since 2009, and the few foreigners with bitcoins living in China gleefully selling them.

Edit - there are not enough bitcoins in China

[Terpie]

After all, arbitrage between exchanges seems to be slow and not very effective in the past.

Yes, that's because most exchanges are still relying 100% on bank transfers for moving fiat. The spreads will come down as more exchanges become ripple gateways (bitstamp was the first, kraken is next in line).

And that solves the problem of bank transfers, how?

Because when an exchange becomes a ripple gateway, you can withdraw fiat IOUs and trade them for another exchange's fiat IOUs. Which you can then redeem (deposit) at the other exchange. Presto, fiat moved without a bank transfer.

You're going to find that GoxUSD IOUs are worth less than StampUSD IOUs, which won't solve the problem then.

[Blazey]

China is a big place. By that I mean that its a big market to over the next weeks or months to accumulate bitcoin, driving the price higher.

I think Europe and the US has exhausted its "newbie buy-in", and China may not have exhausted its.

There will still be some Americans and Europeans that learn about bitcoin and buy some, but the huge rush has hit already (for now).

i think there's a lot more people in america and eu, that don't know for btc and there's also india.

[tarmi]

I dont give a fuck about china.

[windjc]

China is a big place. By that I mean that its a big market to over the next weeks or months to accumulate bitcoin, driving the price higher.

I think Europe and the US has exhausted its "newbie buy-in", and China may not have exhausted its.

There will still be some Americans and Europeans that learn about bitcoin and buy some, but the huge rush has hit already (for now).

ORLY?

You think the majority of americans and europeans have now heard about bitcoin, researched it and made a decision whether to invest or not?

Ha.

Not. Even. Close.

That doesn't mean that we are going up right away. But tons of new money is coming into the markets now and for the forseeable future.

[humanitee]

I dont give a fuck about china.

You should.

[Boxman90]

China is a closed economy - there are few arbitrage opportunities, and the bitcoins available in China are limited to the people in China who managed to get hold of them since 2009, and the few foreigners with bitcoins living in China gleefully selling them.

Edit - there are not enough bitcoins in China

You're joking, right? You must be joking.

> Bitcoins are not "in a country"
> China has dominance over mining operations due to near exclusive chip monopoly

[piramida]

I heard chinese bitcoins are lower quality than original japanese ones 

[favelle75]

I heard chinese bitcoins are lower quality than original japanese ones 

Made in Taiwan?

[wachtwoord]

I heard chinese bitcoins are lower quality than original japanese ones 

Then why are they more expensive?

[bitcoinBull]

bitcoinBull, XRP have all the same properties as BTC (no counterparty risk, limited in amount, pseudonymous). If we are going to use Ripple, why not switch to XRP entirely? Don't forget that Bitcoins within the Ripple system are merely IOUs issued by exchanges, only XRP can be held without counterparty risk, so they are inherently inferior.

I don't understand that.

Because, with BTC there's no uncertainty in the distribution scheme. By comparison, the XRP distribution scheme is highly fickle: depends on Ripple Labs market operations (which may turn out to be poorly managed), Ripple Labs private keys could be compromised (would be a fiasco much worse than the 2011 mtgox hack), the giveaways could be poorly managed and plagued by fraud, etc.

I don't see any threat of the market switching over entirely (especially not if the exchange of BTC is the primary use of ripple gateways).

[ThatDGuy]

China is a big place. By that I mean that its a big market to over the next weeks or months to accumulate bitcoin, driving the price higher.

I think Europe and the US has exhausted its "newbie buy-in", and China may not have exhausted its.

There will still be some Americans and Europeans that learn about bitcoin and buy some, but the huge rush has hit already (for now).

I think you're way off on this, honestly.  I work in an office of 10 software-development-types.  Of those, 3 of us have either bought or mined crypto-currency since March.  Of those 3, I am the only one who is still holding Bitcoin.

The other 7? They know about it because I have told them and updated them along the way.  These are the types of people that have at least the capability to buy Bitcoin right now, in my opinion.  It's still not ready for mainstream, but it's getting closer by the day, and there are still tons of people who haven't heard about it yet, and a large percentage even of those that have are too fearful to buy in.

This is all anecdotal evidence, I know, but I think it is a valid cross-section of a group of people that I would expect to be more on-board already.

China's push and yesterday's U.S. meetings are a pretty strong indicator that Bitcoin is here to stay.  As that general awareness grows and the fear diminishes, I expect to see much more "newbie buy-in"

Even from yesterday alone, and the #1 Google Trends spot (which is a lagging indicator of price) - the new people who want to put fiat in, either don't know how yet, or can't physically do it, due to the scarcity

[bitcoinBull]

Because when an exchange becomes a ripple gateway, you can withdraw fiat IOUs and trade them for another exchange's fiat IOUs. Which you can then redeem (deposit) at the other exchange. Presto, fiat moved without a bank transfer.

You're going to find that GoxUSD IOUs are worth less than StampUSD IOUs, which won't solve the problem then.

GoxUSD might be worth less, but we would find it to be a lot closer to face-value than the current discount rate (there would be much more arbitrage of goxUSD if it could be withdrawn to ripple).

Also, by enabling the trading of fiat IOUs with face-value, the market could directly discount the fiat IOUs (by the spread in bitstampUSD->XRP->mtgoxUSD). Then BTC prices should be more-or-less the same, which would be much better than a massive spread priced into BTC at every separate exchange.

[wachtwoord]

China is a big place. By that I mean that its a big market to over the next weeks or months to accumulate bitcoin, driving the price higher.

I think Europe and the US has exhausted its "newbie buy-in", and China may not have exhausted its.

There will still be some Americans and Europeans that learn about bitcoin and buy some, but the huge rush has hit already (for now).

I think you're way off on this, honestly.  I work in an office of 10 software-development-types.  Of those, 3 of us have either bought or mined crypto-currency since March.  Of those 3, I am the only one who is still holding Bitcoin.

The other 7? They know about it because I have told them and updated them along the way.  These are the types of people that have at least the capability to buy Bitcoin right now, in my opinion.  It's still not ready for mainstream, but it's getting closer by the day, and there are still tons of people who haven't heard about it yet, and a large percentage even of those that have are too fearful to buy in.

This is all anecdotal evidence, I know, but I think it is a valid cross-section of a group of people that I would expect to be more on-board already.

China's push and yesterday's U.S. meetings are a pretty strong indicator that Bitcoin is here to stay.  As that general awareness grows and the fear diminishes, I expect to see much more "newbie buy-in"

Even from yesterday alone, and the #1 Google Trends spot (which is a lagging indicator of price) - the new people who want to put fiat in, either don't know how yet, or can't physically do it, due to the scarcity

I'll confirm this. Almost no-one holds Bitcoin yet.

[MatTheCat]

Just another theory of mine:

Chinese buying BTC to transfer money/wealth oversea. Guess where do they dump their coins?

Well I'll be damned....

An actual 'theory' on this place that isn't totally cacked brained and actually makes some sense.

You had better watch, you will get the 'Face Palm', 'Double Face Palm', and tha 'not even worthy of a Face Palm' brigade on your back if you keep on like this.

And of course, the arbitrage can't work in the opposite direction due to the Chinese Renmimbi largely being a locked down currency.

[bitcoin carpenter]

I live on an island of 12000 people and I have only met 2 people who have or have had bitcoins

[sgbett]

China is a closed economy - there are few arbitrage opportunities, and the bitcoins available in China are limited to the people in China who managed to get hold of them since 2009, and the few foreigners with bitcoins living in China gleefully selling them.

Edit - there are not enough bitcoins in China

You're joking, right? You must be joking.

> Bitcoins are not "in a country"
> China has dominance over mining operations due to near exclusive chip monopoly

I see his point. You are right bitcoins aren't in a country, they are in wallets.

Those wallets belong to people, those people are in countries. Those people (for the time being) don't have much choice in what exchange they use.

Hence the localised price variance based on the different supply/demand pressures on each exchange.

It might not account for everything, but I don't think you can dismiss it out of hand.

[wobber]

I live on an island of 12000 people and I have only met 2 people who have or have had bitcoins

What island? Can I visit you?? For 2 yrs?

[rampantparanoia]

Just another theory of mine:

Chinese buying BTC to transfer money/wealth oversea. Guess where do they dump their coins?

Well I'll be damned....

An actual 'theory' on this place that isn't totally cacked brained and actually makes some sense.

You had better watch, you will get the 'Face Palm', 'Double Face Palm', and tha 'not even worthy of a Face Palm' brigade on your back if you keep on like this.

And of course, the arbitrage can't work in the opposite direction due to the Chinese Renmimbi largely being a locked down currency.

quite valid too. Government requires Chinese citizens to pay X amount if leaving the country for good. I think its something like 300K Yuan. This could be a way to transfer the rest of it without giving it to their government (although still taking quite a hit due to fees)

Idea for an interesting chart: Bitcoin volume vs Chinese immigration