"Assassination Market". Potential hostage crisis brewing. Need game theory

[superduh]

umm, if you donate to this market you SHOULD be arrested.
don't send money to real or fake assassination markets. period.

[trout]

This market can't work.



two problems:
-The first is obvious: the anonymous site owner can run with the money.
There's  no reason to suppose he will ever pay out anything.

-The second problem: The suggested way of proving that you made the hit
is very naive.  Basically, to claim the bounty all you need to do is to submit a (hash of) the date
the hit will be done, and pay 0.1% of the bounty. Nothing prevents you from submitting say  365 claims for the biggest bounty,
and wait for someone else to do the hit.  If you believe the site is legit (e.g. will pay
out) you should do this to win 73.5% of the bounty if the hit is done within a year and if you submitted
the claim before the killer (I don't know what the site will do if two or more people claim
the same date; it doesn't say).

Edit: if there are multiple predictions, he claims he'll split the bounty between them.

Edit2: The bounies are obviously made-up.
Looking at the bounty address for Ben's  head,     13DF5tKZfq8X8hGdhDUySSPgD8iGsFv2WG,
first of all you see that all the donations made except the first one have 0.0005 fee,
whereas the default now is 0.0001. This already hints that they could have been made by the same
person. Further, if you take the first donation made with this 0.0005 fee, which was from this address
1CNd58gBE5Hyxj62kVr1BArhVwdemuYZ7H , then you follow the chain from the "change" address,
always following the biggest output (there are always two), in ~15 steps you arrive at the
3rd donation (2nd with 0.0005 fee) to the same bounty address, made from here 1FRFwBPtRmWs6mU4FZ3faQuLz9eyBKgkrk .
I didn't follow this further, because  to me the conclusion is already clear:
all or the vast majority of the transactions to this address were made by the same person - the
"assassination market" owner, who is just a  scammer.

[Carlton Banks]

Edit2: The bounies are obviously made-up.
Looking at the bounty address for Ben's  head,     13DF5tKZfq8X8hGdhDUySSPgD8iGsFv2WG,
first of all you see that all the donations made except the first one have 0.0005 fee,
whereas the default now is 0.0001. This already hints that they could have been made by the same
person. Further, if you take the first donation made with this 0.0005 fee, which was from this address
1CNd58gBE5Hyxj62kVr1BArhVwdemuYZ7H , then you follow the chain from the "change" address,
always following the biggest output (there are always two), in ~15 steps you arrive at the
3rd donation (2nd with 0.0005 fee) to the same bounty address, made from here 1FRFwBPtRmWs6mU4FZ3faQuLz9eyBKgkrk .
I didn't follow this further, because  to me the conclusion is already clear:
all or the vast majority of the transactions to this address were made by the same person - the
"assassination market" owner, who is just a  scammer.

And, it looks like whoever it was is using an old version of the client, or at least old knowledge of what the minimum fees are these days. Doh.

As well, what's to stop this counter measure:

Create an assasination prevention market.

Same names on the list, crowdsource donations to fund the protection effort. Carries all the same problems of gaming any burden of proof system, but if there's always more in the pot for "don't kill" than "do kill", then it is a success of sorts (i.e. "we surveyed the Bitcoin community, and the vast majority prefer live and let live to assassination, they backed the claims with money" etc)

[blablahblah]

This market can't work.



two problems:
-The first is obvious: the anonymous site owner can run with the money.
There's  no reason to suppose he will ever pay out anything.

Assuming he never ends up owing money to an assassin and he's 100% sure that his security hasn't been compromised. In the media articles the quotes made it seem like he was reckless and desperate, not cocky.

-The second problem: The suggested way of proving that you made the hit
is very naive.  Basically, to claim the bounty all you need to do is to submit a (hash of) the date
the hit will be done, and pay 0.1% of the bounty. Nothing prevents you from submitting say  365 claims for the biggest bounty,
and wait for someone else to do the hit.  If you believe the site is legit (e.g. will pay
out) you should do this to win 73.5% of the bounty if the hit is done within a year and if you submitted
the claim before the killer (I don't know what the site will do if two or more people claim
the same date; it doesn't say).

Edit: if there are multiple predictions, he claims he'll split the bounty between them.

Edit2: The bounies are obviously made-up.
Looking at the bounty address for Ben's  head,     13DF5tKZfq8X8hGdhDUySSPgD8iGsFv2WG,
first of all you see that all the donations made except the first one have 0.0005 fee,
whereas the default now is 0.0001. This already hints that they could have been made by the same
person. Further, if you take the first donation made with this 0.0005 fee, which was from this address
1CNd58gBE5Hyxj62kVr1BArhVwdemuYZ7H , then you follow the chain from the "change" address,
always following the biggest output (there are always two), in ~15 steps you arrive at the
3rd donation (2nd with 0.0005 fee) to the same bounty address, made from here 1FRFwBPtRmWs6mU4FZ3faQuLz9eyBKgkrk .
I didn't follow this further, because  to me the conclusion is already clear:
all or the vast majority of the transactions to this address were made by the same person - the
"assassination market" owner, who is just a  scammer.

If he's serious about getting it working, he'll probably find a way. The problem I see is that he wants it to work. Even if he fails, there could easily be copycats once they see what's possible.

[beetcoin]

i'm not an extremist. i don't believe in assassination markets for multiple reasons. that's not to say that the assassination targets are the scum of the earth, but paying for their death is just too extreme for me. and even worse, it'll put bitcoin in the crosshair of the feds.

and as mentioned, it just opens the door for some douche bag to create a scammy assassination market to run away with the funds.

[trout]

If he's serious about getting it working, he'll probably find a way. The problem I see is that he wants it to work. Even if he fails, there could easily be copycats once they see what's possible.

all I see right now is a not-so-elaborate scam.
And it's not the first one. Hidden wiki had "assassination markets" listed by the dozen a year or couples of years ago. There're still a few of them listed.
The point is that one paid "order" is more than enough to pay not only for setting up a few hidden sites, but also for some  advertising effort - like this guy that had emailed  a  bitcoin journalist at forbes about this "venture."  From what I understand, he's already got at least 1 btc out of it. I think he can call it a success.

[franky1]

we all know that the euro EG europe opens up new weed cafe's every other day, we know that new brothels open every other day. but do we really need a free advertising campain for these notorious sites on a forum that is about money.

i never see wall street magazines and forums advertise every time a brothel is opened in las vegas. so why are we advertising notorious websites. lets try to keep a distinctive line between bitcoin and notorious services using bitcoin.

i have hardly seen anyone mention all the 12000 plus legit businesses. so lets not highlight the notorious stuff as much, if they want freedom to do notorious stuff then let them go find it themselves. lets not make bitcoin all about "illegal activity"

[Cameltoemcgee]

I don't agree with the principle, if you want to stop obama or bernanke then promote bitcoins... don't make a martyr out of either of them.

It could well be a scam, but then again... maybe its not, there are an awful lot of people in countries all around the world that have had their lives ruined by the western banking system, and those 2 are the figureheads for that system... What i do find amusing is that people are shocked that this could happen and wondering what to do about it, surely when you have a society based on the fundamental premise that its ok to do violence against someone as long as its "for the greater good" and the leaders of that society use that violence with impunity then its reasonable to assume that people are going to turn to violence as a solution for things they see as problems that the leaders do... Monkey see, Monkey do.

The best thing you can do is to promote the shite out of bitcoin and hope that it defangs the criminals in positions of power before enough people decide they want them dead for someone to think it lucrative enough to have a crack at it... In the meantime whilst you're waiting, read some books and spend some time in the sun.

[ImI]

I don't agree with the principle, if you want to stop obama or bernanke then promote bitcoins... don't make a martyr out of either of them.

It could well be a scam, but then again... maybe its not, there are an awful lot of people in countries all around the world that have had their lives ruined by the western banking system, and those 2 are the figureheads for that system... What i do find amusing is that people are shocked that this could happen and wondering what to do about it, surely when you have a society based on the fundamental premise that its ok to do violence against someone as long as its "for the greater good" and the leaders of that society use that violence with impunity then its reasonable to assume that people are going to turn to violence as a solution for things they see as problems that the leaders do... Monkey see, Monkey do.

The best thing you can do is to promote the shite out of bitcoin and hope that it defangs the criminals in positions of power before enough people decide they want them dead for someone to think it lucrative enough to have a crack at it... In the meantime whilst you're waiting, read some books and spend some time in the sun.

To murder out of political reasons is despicable.

But regardless if you see that i another light, there is another issue evolving here.

Who says that this has to stop at a level of political leaders?

The same priniciple of anonymity of information and payment combined with assassination crowdfunding could easily be adopted to a local level.

Lets assume you have made a fortune with your BTCs and your neighbors really are annoyed of you driving around with your expensive cars and loud parties in your garden. The dispute escalates (like it does hundreds of thousands times a year) and they start a anonym crowdfunding. Boom.

Or another example somebody is REALLY pissed that you took his girlfriend. He isnt rich but 100k$ he is able to gather together. Boom.

Or another example, you are a teacher of your local highschool and you are building a local group against discrmination of homosexuals. Alot of people in the entourage of the school doen like this at all. Boom.

I could go on and on forever finding situations where somebody or some group could crowdfund enough dough to hire a assassin. Its by the way no coinicidence that he is denying on his website any assassinations in terms of pro or contra abortion. Imagine all the hate in between those two groups.

Imo, that is a HUGE PROBLEM in the longterm, cause i dont wanna live in a place and situation were every fuckin nutjob with 100k$ is capable of killing another person and even if it fails and the assassin is caught he will stay anonym and he could give somebody else the job again.

Not good.

[Explodicle]

Who says that this has to stop at a level of political leaders?

Carlton Banks does, that's who!

Create an assasination prevention market.

Nearly everyone provides so much of a benefit to society that it would never be cost-effective to kill them. And if psycho ex-boyfriends with $100K become a widespread problem, I think your loved ones would buy insurance against it.

Besides, this allegedly already happened when Dread Pirate Roberts ordered a hit. The government simply staged a fake video and used it against him.

[Cameltoemcgee]

To murder out of political reasons is despicable.

But regardless if you see that i another light, there is another issue evolving here.

Who says that this has to stop at a level of political leaders?

The same priniciple of anonymity of information and payment combined with assassination crowdfunding could easily be adopted to a local level.

Lets assume you have made a fortune with your BTCs and your neighbors really are annoyed of you driving around with your expensive cars and loud parties in your garden. The dispute escalates (like it does hundreds of thousands times a year) and they start a anonym crowdfunding. Boom.

I don't really see this as ever being an issue... do you think people really need the threat of death hanging over their heads to not go around being a knob to everyone they meet?

Or another example somebody is REALLY pissed that you took his girlfriend. He isnt rich but 100k$ he is able to gather together. Boom.

Or another example, you are a teacher of your local highschool and you are building a local group against discrmination of homosexuals. Alot of people in the entourage of the school doen like this at all. Boom.

I could go on and on forever finding situations where somebody or some group could crowdfund enough dough to hire a assassin. Its by the way no coinicidence that he is denying on his website any assassinations in terms of pro or contra abortion. Imagine all the hate in between those two groups.

Imo, that is a HUGE PROBLEM in the longterm, cause i dont wanna live in a place and situation were every fuckin nutjob with 100k$ is capable of killing another person and even if it fails and the assassin is caught he will stay anonym and he could give somebody else the job again.

Not good.

I can certainly see where you're coming from, i don't think that the concerns are really warranted though, this kind of thing happens privately anyway for the wacko's that really have a vendetta and that to me seems like it should be much more of a concern if you don't know about it, if you crowdfund a murder on a website then surely the person who is targeted will be aware of it if they are doing something that is going to potentially piss alot of people off.

Seems to me that people would be more likely to not do things to piss people off if they think there might be severe consequences and it would likely never get to that point... Its a very touchy subject though, a kind of crowd funded murder for justice (if there can be such a thing) system is somewhat going back to the dark ages where there were bounties on peoples heads... who knows what would happen in todays modern society?

On the flip side of the coin, what would happen to the rapists and truly morally bereft/psychotic people... they certainly wouldn't get put in a seperate cell block from the others and live a tax payer funded existence... which i realise could be a double edged sword if someone was framed... but i would imagine that the people who are funding would do the research if they were willing to live with something like that on their conscience... then again, if someone saw a bounty appear on their head, they'd leave wherever they were and probably would have to live a very ostracized life, change their identity and most decent people wouldn't want to be associated with someone who is essentially an outlaw... In todays age you'd have law enforcement as well as other people investigating the bounties put up on the site and why they're up there...


The can of worms is now opened... and the idea is out there, what does everyone think will happen?

[C. Bergmann]

Has this idea fled of an nightmarish dytopia?

Seems my phantasy is weak, I am shocked.

Imagine ... 124 Coins on Benake. What will happen when Bitcoin reaches 10k in worth?

[Cameltoemcgee]

Yep, i would imagine that the FBI will go after whoever it is who created it. Nothing will happen for a while because its most probably someone after people's bitcoin.

certainly though, if the website stays up, and its not a scam.... and BTC goes to 10,000... i doubt bernanke will ever leave his private island that he will be forced to build....