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BCEmporium
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August 08, 2011, 08:00:48 PM
 #81

I'm going to go ahead and suggest that the crossover potentially signals a market bottom, just because we've been in a steady downtrend for two months and this is the first time that something has changed.
The difficulty and hash rate are on different scales in that graph. There is no "crossover".
But the scales are matched to where difficulty = estimated difficulty at X MH/s.

Nope, that's not what the other than red (difficulty) line means, the other 3 lines means "Computer power allocated" and that graph shows that many miners are leaving, nothing else.

(ultimately that may mean also that less coins will be generated, blocks will take longer to generate and therefore transactions will be slower to confirm)
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August 08, 2011, 11:39:05 PM
 #82

I'm going to go ahead and suggest that the crossover potentially signals a market bottom, just because we've been in a steady downtrend for two months and this is the first time that something has changed.
The difficulty and hash rate are on different scales in that graph. There is no "crossover".
But the scales are matched to where difficulty = estimated difficulty at X MH/s.

Nope, that's not what the other than red (difficulty) line means, the other 3 lines means "Computer power allocated" and that graph shows that many miners are leaving, nothing else.

(ultimately that may mean also that less coins will be generated, blocks will take longer to generate and therefore transactions will be slower to confirm)
Sorry, but you're wrong.

At the current difficulty rate (1888786), it would take about 13,520 GH/s to generate 7,200 bitcoins/day (which is the target).  Guess where that red difficulty line lines up on the GH/s scale to the left?



As you can see on the chart, I have extended the red line to hit the scale on the left, for easily visualizing the scenario.  I have also added tickmarks and counters for every 10 pixels on the graph.  Each segment of 5,000 GH/s is 92 pixels tall.

The line hits at pixel #66.  66/92 = 71.74% of the way up from 10,000 GH/s to 15,000 GH/s.  71.74% of 5,000 GH/s = 3,587 GH/s.  10,000 + 3,587 = 13,587 GH/s.  While that doesn't match exactly with my figure of 13,520 GH/s, one can only be so accurate with pixel math.  Tongue

So, like I said before, the scales are matched up on purpose.  If the total computing power starts to drop below the red line for a significant period of time, you can expect difficulty to be reduced accordingly.
kookiekrak
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August 08, 2011, 11:44:12 PM
 #83

SEE TITLE.

AT THE DISCO! (forgive me if i'm late)

FREE 100 GME if you post your Cryptsy TradeKey on the official GameCoinTalk forums

http://www.gamecointalk.org/index.php?topic=7.msg9#new
BCEmporium
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August 08, 2011, 11:51:35 PM
 #84

So, like I said before, the scales are matched up on purpose.  If the total computing power starts to drop below the red line for a significant period of time, you can expect difficulty to be reduced accordingly.

No, you can never see the difficulty line go down, it just goes up. There's no way to make it "easier" to generate coins, in an ultimate scenario, if we have one single miner, he would be for sure getting his 50 coins... but would take ages before his block gets created. It doesn't rely on "a need for X coins to be generated per day".
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August 08, 2011, 11:54:19 PM
 #85

So, like I said before, the scales are matched up on purpose.  If the total computing power starts to drop below the red line for a significant period of time, you can expect difficulty to be reduced accordingly.

No, you can never see the difficulty line go down, it just goes up. There's no way to make it "easier" to generate coins, in an ultimate scenario, if we have one single miner, he would be for sure getting his 50 coins... but would take ages before his block gets created. It doesn't rely on "a need for X coins to be generated per day".
I don't think you understand how difficulty works.

If it takes more than 2 weeks to generate 2016 blocks, then the difficulty WILL decrease.  It's programmed into the client/node to do so.  We just haven't actually had that happen yet, so that's why you see no reduction in the "red line".
BCEmporium
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August 08, 2011, 11:59:08 PM
 #86

I see, you're right Spike.
Less miners will bring difficulty down: http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php
JBDive
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August 09, 2011, 05:05:36 AM
 #87

Even with the price move back over 8 I show hash rate at 12.668 Thash/s and only 6740 BTC/day, 930 block remaining making the next difficulty change in 7 days or is my math way off?
SgtSpike
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August 09, 2011, 05:25:24 AM
 #88

Even with the price move back over 8 I show hash rate at 12.668 Thash/s and only 6740 BTC/day, 930 block remaining making the next difficulty change in 7 days or is my math way off?
Sounds about right.

Either way, this is excellent news for me.  It means that mining *should* remain profitable for me for quite some time, as other people seem to have higher variable costs than I do.  Especially in the winter, but even in the summer with A/C, as long as the price is over $7, I'm still making money.
GeniuSxBoY
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August 09, 2011, 11:47:15 PM
 #89

bump lol
Minsc
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September 07, 2011, 01:57:48 AM
 #90

Either way, this is excellent news for me.  It means that mining *should* remain profitable for me for quite some time, as other people seem to have higher variable costs than I do.  Especially in the winter, but even in the summer with A/C, as long as the price is over $7, I'm still making money.

We need Australia in the market now because it's winter for them during our summers.

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