Market cap in 2016

[N12]

Interested to know what you guys think (preferably I would like to hear the opinion of those favoring a scenario of an immediate s-curve, economic singularity or whatever you would like to call it) Bitcoin's market cap will likely be in 2016. At MtGox prices, we peaked out at about 10.8 billion so far.

Say it goes up 1000% a year which I believe is viewed as conservative, that would be 100-fold increase and we would have a trillion dollar market cap.

What do you say?

[bizz]

Yes.

[laowai80]

why only 10 trillion as the top? )

[YoYa]

For frame of reference, current cap is: 7,316,694,625 USD


My bet's on roughly 300 to 500 billion, expecting the trillion or two orders of magnitude is a tough call.

[N12]

why only 10 trillion as the top? )

Sorry, if you think it will go higher, just vote 10 trillion as it's the next thing.

[laowai80]

why only 10 trillion as the top? )

Sorry, if you think it will go higher, just vote 10 trillion as it's the next thing.

that's what i did )

[piramida]

Say it goes up 1000% a year which I believe is viewed as conservative, that would be 100-fold increase and we would have a trillion dollar market cap.

1000% is a 10x increase. My understanding always was that the trend is 4x yearly increase of the minimum possible price, starting from $1 in jan 2011 / $4 (2012) / $16 (2013) / $64 (2014) / $256 (2015), so at least 10 billion in 2016; but we have started growing much faster recently, so I don't know anymore. Voted 1 triliion just because it sounds right for the market bitcoin will have to cover in any case.

[N12]

Yes, I meant a 1000% increase in 2014 and 2015 would be a x100 increase. I should have probably specified beginning of 2016, although whether it is 2 or 3 years doesn't matter much for the sake of this poll.

[Chainsaw]

It might help to further clarify, for the poll, whether you are asking in terms of 2013 USD or 2016 USD.

In today's money, there is a hard-cap.
In 2016 money, there is an additional potential multiplier to the market cap.

[N12]

2016's USD.

1.08^2 or even ^3 doesn't change very much. So, unless the dollar undergoes hyperinflation soon …