Thoughts About BTC-E / MTGox Arbitrage

[kireinaha]

Hi all, I know this has been brought up before, but I couldn`t find any useful threads via search, many were old and probably out of date by now.
I`ve been trying to learn a little about arbitrage over the past couple days and it seems like it could still be profitable, albeit a bit frustrating to try it between BTC-E and MTGox. Any thoughts on these ideas?

1. Wire money from American bank to BTC-E (OKpay non-option now for Americans). Pay 1% fee to BTC-E plus any normal bank fee ($20?).
2. Wait for deposit on BTC-E. Once it arrives, buy bitcoins. (0.2% fee)
3. Immediately send bitcoins to MTGox account. This should take under an hour in most cases... right?
4. Trade for USD on MTGox (0.5% fee?)
5. Withdraw USD to a Japanese bank account (about 200 yen or $2 USD)
6. Wire the USD back to US bank (again, $20 fee) and repeat

It seems like it wouldn`t have value with amounts of $1,000 or less because of the fees and market fluctuations, but a few thousand dollars should generate a reasonable profit on each turnaround, no?

Am I missing anything here? All input appreciated.

[kireinaha]

Starting to think this wouldn`t be a good idea (the wire transfer to BTC-E in particular), given Meelos` experience in this thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=334039.0

So it seems that this could be profitable in theory, but just too risky dealing with foreign exchanges.

[Hiroaki]

There are as well many other exchanges with arbitrage opportunities. What about them ?

[aspiring]

There are as well many other exchanges with arbitrage opportunities. What about them ?

You're right, as I'm currently conducting arbitrage between BTCChina and other major Chinese exchanges with BTCE, Bitstamp and Mtgox since the spreads have been far wider. An example of which would be that massive rally earlier this week, where at one stage there was a 58% arbitrage spread. By taking it then would pretty much guarantee a solid ROI, which is way better than a gamble on it's continuous astronomical rise.

Problem is, we run out of coins to do arbitrage usually when spreads are at their best. That's why I'm seeking out partners that have money in other exchanges to convert them to coins at the right time.

I believe a mixture of speculation and arbitrage yields the best results, as both hold two very distinct risk profiles that complement each other during different stages of the cycle.

Drop me a PM or add me on skype (id is "aspiringentrepreneur") if you're keen to discuss how to work together.

Cheers,
Sam

[Dargumin]

Could you not already have BTC in Gox so when you buy on BTC-e or Bitstamp, you immediately sell the same amount of bTC on Gox.  Then the new BTC can be transfered to Gox or just be loaded to gox prior to the next time?  An hour is a long time in BTC, what appeared as a good arb could have diminished greatly if you wait for the BTC to transfer.    

[mackler]

Do you really want to leave sizable capital in those exchanges for a long time?