Are we still early adopters? Or did that pass after 2010/2011?

[BitBOOM]

We are all "early adopters" imo. We are not even close to seeing bitcoins full potential at this stage. It is just growing bigger and bigger day by day.

[Open4lies]

In two years it will be funny to read old threads like "Are we still early adopters", between other threads like "Is 100.000 still ok price to buy in?"

[n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU]

Bitcoin right now is like the 90's Internets... We are at the very bottom of the technology adoption S curve (probably we still are innovators), so expect it to grow during 5 to 10 years..





Now, let's take as example Facebook. If bitcoin could potentially reach 1 Billion users like facebook, taking into account current users and current monetary mass, then you can quickly come up with a guesstimate of 1 bitcoin = $1M (I'm not saying it will reach it). Bitcoin right now (after this week's spike) should have around 600-800k users.  User adoption is the real deal. More users = more market cap = bigger valuation. (1 User = 1 person, 1 organism, 1 company, etc)*



Bitcoin, like other technologies/products, seems to be following a pattern defined by viral diffusion (logistic function):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI



So growth, user adoption and valuation are deeply related... For instance, rpietila's growth/valuation model with a linear regresion shows we are at the bottom of an exponential curve:



The wallets stats usage shows we are at the bottom of an exponential curve...




The questions remains... where is the top of the S-Curve? Here there are some attempts by forum members to fit user adoption + valuation + logistic function (viral diffusion pattern)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg3525760#msg3525760
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdGhDN3FBWFptTlZTREN0cFkxZ3JHTnc#gid=13


TL'DR: If btc ever makes it, then expect it to grow A LOT, so chillax, we ain't seen shite yet.

Great post.  Deserves highlighting.  Thank you for the work & summary.

[freedomno1]

Bitcoin right now is like the 90's Internets... We are at the very bottom of the technology adoption S curve (probably we still are innovators), so expect it to grow during 5 to 10 years..





Now, let's take as example Facebook. If bitcoin could potentially reach 1 Billion users like facebook, taking into account current users and current monetary mass, then you can quickly come up with a guesstimate of 1 bitcoin = $1M (I'm not saying it will reach it). Bitcoin right now (after this week's spike) should have around 600-800k users.  User adoption is the real deal. More users = more market cap = bigger valuation. (1 User = 1 person, 1 organism, 1 company, etc)*



Bitcoin, like other technologies/products, seems to be following a pattern defined by viral diffusion (logistic function):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI



So growth, user adoption and valuation are deeply related... For instance, rpietila's growth/valuation model with a linear regresion shows we are at the bottom of an exponential curve:



The wallets stats usage shows we are at the bottom of an exponential curve...




The questions remains... where is the top of the S-Curve? Here there are some attempts by forum members to fit user adoption + valuation + logistic function (viral diffusion pattern)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg3525760#msg3525760
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdGhDN3FBWFptTlZTREN0cFkxZ3JHTnc#gid=13


TL'DR: If btc ever makes it, then expect it to grow A LOT, so chillax, we ain't seen shite yet.

Great post.  Deserves highlighting.  Thank you for the work & summary.

First decent post on the subject in a while similar to Turr Demesters presentation on bitcoin in graphs
Talking about the S shaped curve
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7LQu-eIOO0
I did forget Maloney's rule using that scale we are arguably in the former still as we have yet to make the transition defined on the scale
Thanks for that

[wobber]

I think we're somewhere at the middle of the S curve, almost to the top.

[Dafar]

Bitcoin right now is like the 90's Internets... We are at the very bottom of the technology adoption S curve (probably we still are innovators), so expect it to grow during 5 to 10 years..





Now, let's take as example Facebook. If bitcoin could potentially reach 1 Billion users like facebook, taking into account current users and current monetary mass, then you can quickly come up with a guesstimate of 1 bitcoin = $1M (I'm not saying it will reach it). Bitcoin right now (after this week's spike) should have around 600-800k users.  User adoption is the real deal. More users = more market cap = bigger valuation. (1 User = 1 person, 1 organism, 1 company, etc)*



Bitcoin, like other technologies/products, seems to be following a pattern defined by viral diffusion (logistic function):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI



So growth, user adoption and valuation are deeply related... For instance, rpietila's growth/valuation model with a linear regresion shows we are at the bottom of an exponential curve:



The wallets stats usage shows we are at the bottom of an exponential curve...




The questions remains... where is the top of the S-Curve? Here there are some attempts by forum members to fit user adoption + valuation + logistic function (viral diffusion pattern)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg3525760#msg3525760
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdGhDN3FBWFptTlZTREN0cFkxZ3JHTnc#gid=13


TL'DR: If btc ever makes it, then expect it to grow A LOT, so chillax, we ain't seen shite yet.

Great post man, thanks for your contribution.

I think we're somewhere at the middle of the S curve, almost to the top.

wat?

[kireinaha]

If nothing else, this thread will serve as a fantastic case study in mass delusion for future generations 

[dasein]

If nothing else, this thread will serve as a fantastic case study in mass delusion for future generations 

Yes, it's going to be really interesting for my heirs to reflect on how deeply delusional the fiat currency system was during the time of their great patriarch.

[n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU]

Check out this survey of big money managers.  Given the responses, I'd guess that anyone buying now is still an early adopter and at the very bottom of the S-curve.

“I still don’t even know what it is” – Jim Chanos, famed short-seller and founder of $6 billion Kynikos Associates.

“You know,  I don’t understand bitcoin” – Bonnie Baha, head of Global Developed Credit at $53 billion DoubleLine Capital.

“I don’t really know enough to have a view” – Chris Delong, chief investment officer of $8.1 billion multi-strategy hedge fund Taconic Capital Advisors

“I don’t have any insight at all. I don’t know how it should be valued. I have no anchor as to what it’s worth”-  Steven Einhorn, Vice-Chairman of Omega Advisors

“I like sound currencies. I have no interest in that. I would stay away”  - Margie Patel, senior portfolio manager at Wells Capital Management.

http://blogs.reuters.com/unstructuredfinance/2013/11/22/what-the-money-managers-and-the-fog-of-bitcoin/

[bitleif]

The wallets stats usage shows we are at the bottom of an exponential curve...

Just to nitpick, how can you be at the "bottom" of an exponential curve? One of the features of an exponential curve is that it looks like this no matter how you scale it. Technically you can just show that we are in an exponential curve, somewhere. The graphs gives you no information about how long it's going to continue.

(Not being bearish here, just anal.)

[exstasie]

We are definitely early adopters, no question about that.  The only question is will BTC remain a viable option to get into the majority.

[sgbett]

My anecdotal input is that amongst my friends there are now 2 people (that I know about) I know that have actually made a move (one around the $200 mark the other is just about to get in). This is despite me basically spamming my newsfeed on Facebook with bitcoin related propaganda. As well as mentioning it to several people who *should* have the cajones to take a punt on it (but haven't).

So form my limited sample, I think we are just hitting early adopter phase

[xorglub]

A lot of people have heard about Bitcoin by now.
Very few have actually tried it.

IMHO the innovation phase was from 2009 to late 2012 and the beginning of 2013 period marked the transition to the "early adopters" phase. We are still there.

[PenAndPaper]

My anecdotal input is that amongst my friends there are now 2 people (that I know about) I know that have actually made a move (one around the $200 mark the other is just about to get in). This is despite me basically spamming my newsfeed on Facebook with bitcoin related propaganda. As well as mentioning it to several people who *should* have the cajones to take a punt on it (but haven't).

So form my limited sample, I think we are just hitting early adopter phase

Same here. I just convinced one of my friends to get his feet wet although i 'm constantly talking to everyone about bitcoin. Actually i think he was convinced by the price and some of the latest pr buzz but anyway 

[wannasurf]

(anecdotal) I work for a super high tech company in silicon valley. Everybody's got PhDs in computers and physics and stuff. Over beers I brought it up with coworkers and most didn't have any idea how it worked and were highly skeptical, echoing the FUD you see from the dumb press articles ("what if the creator decides to take all the money", "what if bitcoin 2.0 comes along", "what if everybody stops believing all at once and the price crashes" ... actually that last one is not a bad objection but large numbers of adopters continually works in our favor)

We are *way* early still. Whether that means enormous spikes in price I don't know, but we are definitely "geeky for geeks" as someone said earlier.

[alexeft]

In two years it will be funny to read old threads like "Are we still early adopters", between other threads like "Is 100.000 still ok price to buy in?"

I LIKE this guy!!! 

[alexeft]

I think we are innovators, considering that states have just now started discussing the issue.
Perhaps ending innovation phase-beginning early adoption phase. 

[nate008]

The number of bitcoin "users" , people who actually buy and sell things with bitcoin has barely doubled in the last year.
The whole blockchain holds 27 mil transactions , 1/5 of visa's daily transactions.

It's still the begging.

[Apraksin]

Sigh. Why do I keep reading speculation forum, same shit over and over again.

[MatTheCat]

Nice chart but are you sure buddy? It looks like we're finishing the early majority phase and going down hill for a while

It looks to me like the market want's to correct for a while, but whether entrants now are early adopter's or late adopters all depends of course on what is to become of Bitcoin. As far as 'early innovators' go, that point has well and truly past. It was the point where probably most of us thought "that sounds interesting, I am going to mine a few coins on my gfx card" or even, "I am going to invest 1000GBP in Btc, but at over 7 GBP per coin, I am going to wait in the price to drop, in the meantime, I will just spend hundreds of Btc on SR"

If Bitcoin goes on to receive mass adoption, we here would definitely be amongst the early adopters. For that to happen though, price must stabilise and for price to stablize, this mass speculative bubble must surely correct, hopefully over an extended period. Thus encouraging people to spend their Bitcoins other than hoarding them. The last thing that Bitcoin needs however is yet more flash crashes or massive price spikes.

Just to nitpick, how can you be at the "bottom" of an exponential curve? One of the features of an exponential curve is that it looks like this no matter how you scale it. Technically you can just show that we are in an exponential curve, somewhere. The graphs gives you no information about how long it's going to continue.

(Not being bearish here, just anal.)

Could have used the same argument based on exponential curves back in April 2013 and also in July 2011.

Now April 2013 looks like a small blip on the exponential rise, whereas July 2011 barely registers.