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Author Topic: We'll be back to $13-14 by end of week. Know how I know?  (Read 3699 times)
skyhigh
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August 04, 2011, 06:05:09 AM
 #21

OP you will be wrong this time....

New trading channel will be $9 to $11, before we will most likely head lower. This is still $30 bubble bursting, simply based on the fact that demand can't meet the supply of 7200 coin per day, every day. Supply adds up over a period of time and we get this bigger moves. Sure Mybitcoin and Poland doesn't help, but it really doesn't effect things as much as some people around here think.

In the future price will drop all the way to the point where it will be easy for the daily supply of 7200 coins to be met with $ value. Bitcoin production cost will only be a small part of the equation. If it will cost $5 to produce a coin and market won't be able to come up daily with $36,000 fresh dollars, unfortunately price would go below production cost. Noone ever said mining will always be profitable.

Network total hashrate is at 14 TH and growing at a high rate of 6% to 12% every re-target. Even if this growth would slow down considerably, less than 3% per re-target, network would still be growing by a lot. Every day there is more and more people finding out about bitcoins and they have decent radeon cards capable of mining. I'm sure there are 10 million cards on the internet right now, while whole network mines with less than 50k cards.

So network will keep growing overall, while price will drop to the level where new fresh money added to the market can meet 7200 daily supply. It doesn't matter if miners go on strike and don't sell anything for months. It would only be temporary change. It's all about market cap and total number of coins, which will next week reach 7 million.
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August 04, 2011, 06:15:22 AM
 #22

OP you will be wrong this time....

New trading channel will be $9 to $11, before we will most likely head lower. This is still $30 bubble bursting, simply based on the fact that demand can't meet the supply of 7200 coin per day, every day. Supply adds up over a period of time and we get this bigger moves. Sure Mybitcoin and Poland doesn't help, but it really doesn't effect things as much as some people around here think.

In the future price will drop all the way to the point where it will be easy for the daily supply of 7200 coins to be met with $ value. Bitcoin production cost will only be a small part of the equation. If it will cost $5 to produce a coin and market won't be able to come up daily with $36,000 fresh dollars, unfortunately price would go below production cost. Noone ever said mining will always be profitable.

Network total hashrate is at 14 TH and growing at a high rate of 6% to 12% every re-target. Even if this growth would slow down considerably, less than 3% per re-target, network would still be growing by a lot. Every day there is more and more people finding out about bitcoins and they have decent radeon cards capable of mining. I'm sure there are 10 million cards on the internet right now, while whole network mines with less than 50k cards.

So network will keep growing overall, while price will drop to the level where new fresh money added to the market can meet 7200 daily supply. It doesn't matter if miners go on strike and don't sell anything for months. It would only be temporary change. It's all about market cap and total number of coins, which will next week reach 7 million.

Wish you would have told us this last week.

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August 04, 2011, 06:15:43 AM
 #23

There are some beautiful and intelligent women who could represent us. Shira Lazar would be a good spokes model for us! http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7368784n

Somehow it doesn't come across as likely that intelligent women would promise to run through the city naked, or give free blowjobs when BTC hits say $20 Cheesy

It's crass but the fact is that bitcoin must eventually go to the masses and it's proven that sex sells and cheap thrills work great for marketing and awareness Cheesy

So we just need a sexy, likely busty, woman who has no qualms about making salacious empty promises to promote Bitcoin Cheesy

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August 04, 2011, 06:18:00 AM
 #24

Well, we'll need to get some mainstream babes into the community before we could aim higher, as it is, it's mostly guys here and geek babes are usually too smart (or not enough of an attention seeking personality) to make promises like those Cheesy

Yeah, we need a spokesmodel like Morgan Webb or someone.  Regardless, it'd be nice if we crack $20 again.  If we can get to that level again, I'd be less shy in front of the camera Tongue

I was about to go, there aren't that many of us who are homosexuals. Then it occurred to me there was some cute girl in the other thread...

Alright, how about being more exact about what's "less shy" before I go put out a buy for $20? Cheesy



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August 04, 2011, 06:33:20 AM
 #25

I was about to go, there aren't that many of us who are homosexuals. Then it occurred to me there was some cute girl in the other thread...

Alright, how about being more exact about what's "less shy" before I go put out a buy for $20? Cheesy

I could probably liberate myself from my shirt maybe?  I don't know.  Let's cross that bridge when we get there Smiley

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August 04, 2011, 06:34:24 AM
 #26

I was about to go, there aren't that many of us who are homosexuals. Then it occurred to me there was some cute girl in the other thread...

Alright, how about being more exact about what's "less shy" before I go put out a buy for $20? Cheesy

I could probably liberate myself from my shirt maybe?  I don't know.  Let's cross that bridge when we get there Smiley

BRB logging into TH to place a $20 buy order.

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August 04, 2011, 07:12:14 AM
 #27

It'd be nice if you were right.  I have plenty of coins to sell at 14.  At $10 I'm just gonna mentally write them off and go for "double or nothing in a year."

The 9 to 11 channel is far more likely short term.  Prices should flatline again for a month, then dive again.  3/4 of the current mining capacity hasn't mined enough to pay for their rigs yet.
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August 04, 2011, 02:07:13 PM
 #28

What we need now is to have a few strategically placed fairly strong buys of 2-300BTC each and we'll see those sell walls crumble I do believe. Unless we're going to play see-saw again like yesterday.  Grin

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August 04, 2011, 02:31:55 PM
 #29

Blah blah blah spewing random crap

Yep. Mhm. Indeed.

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August 04, 2011, 05:08:10 PM
 #30

I'ts obvious that many here are new to investing in general.  Real investing is 80% homework and 20% balls. You should have a plan with contingencies and the courage to follow through long term. Panic selling is not a plan it's an emotional response to a math problem.
Many investors behave this way. Once you understand that those people can be manipulated into buying or selling you have become an investor.
P.S. If you have a 401k or something like that, you are not an investor, you are a follower.

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August 04, 2011, 07:07:46 PM
 #31

I'm with you OP, I sold at $10.80, and fully expect prices to never drop below $10 again in my lifetime.  Setting my expectations in this fashion is a great coping mechanism in case prices drop, which would be a welcome surprise.  Expectations are a bitch; managing them is the secret to happiness.

On the plus side, if prices rise, I've given money to my fellow hackers and other early adopters to support them in their efforts to create this currency system, which in my value system, is better than giving it to the Wall Street crowd.  And though the Venn diagram of Wall Streeters and bitcoiners overlaps, I think it's only by a tiny bit.
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August 04, 2011, 07:58:17 PM
 #32


3/4 of the current mining capacity hasn't mined enough to pay for their rigs yet.


And this is life's bear that is coming to bite them in the ass...

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Man From The Future
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August 04, 2011, 08:35:14 PM
 #33

OP you will be wrong this time....

New trading channel will be $9 to $11, before we will most likely head lower. This is still $30 bubble bursting, simply based on the fact that demand can't meet the supply of 7200 coin per day, every day. Supply adds up over a period of time and we get this bigger moves. Sure Mybitcoin and Poland doesn't help, but it really doesn't effect things as much as some people around here think.

In the future price will drop all the way to the point where it will be easy for the daily supply of 7200 coins to be met with $ value. Bitcoin production cost will only be a small part of the equation. If it will cost $5 to produce a coin and market won't be able to come up daily with $36,000 fresh dollars, unfortunately price would go below production cost. Noone ever said mining will always be profitable.

Network total hashrate is at 14 TH and growing at a high rate of 6% to 12% every re-target. Even if this growth would slow down considerably, less than 3% per re-target, network would still be growing by a lot. Every day there is more and more people finding out about bitcoins and they have decent radeon cards capable of mining. I'm sure there are 10 million cards on the internet right now, while whole network mines with less than 50k cards.

So network will keep growing overall, while price will drop to the level where new fresh money added to the market can meet 7200 daily supply. It doesn't matter if miners go on strike and don't sell anything for months. It would only be temporary change. It's all about market cap and total number of coins, which will next week reach 7 million.

You haven't accounted for miners who never intend to sell for USD more than they have to to pay their bills.
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August 04, 2011, 11:20:12 PM
 #34

Exactly. The whole issue of 7200 new coins every day is minor as long as there are enough miners who believe in a positive future for Bitcoin. The severity of the issue entirely depends on that.

There are miners who don't sell almost any coins because they believe in a higher future value and don't need the USD right now. Then there is a large group of miners who sell some because they want to get their investment back gradually but they also believe in Bitcoin so they will save a portion. I'm one of those miners, following a 50/50 cashout/save plan. Currently I'm not doing any trades though because I think the price is low and will come up.

The situation right now is that there have been a steady flow of bad news and problems related to Bitcoin-services which has pretty much killed all attempts at a rally. Added, the euro-players have a problem getting money to buy coins, I personally know some people who would buy but can't yet. Also, it's still vacation season and there has been a lack of hype for Bitcoin so that slows everything down as well.

It's also important to remember that 7200 coins is a marginal part of every day Bitcoin transfers. Very marginal. And as I already explained, not even close to all of those coins are sold as they are mined. It's hard to estimate how much is but I don't think it's even 50%, probably less.

When more miners start to be skeptical about the long-term prospects then there is reason to worry. For me personally a key issue right now as an euro-player is the comeback of reliable sepa-transfers across the board. That would be a very positive sign. Further serious problems with european banks, however, would be a really bad thing and my confidence about the whole thing would go way down.

The thing is, Bitcoin as a currency, fundamentally, is rock solid still. But at this stage of development it is entirely dependent on the ability of easy transfer to USD/EUR. That is because it's not a universal currency and is mostly used as a payment method only. At this stage painless transfers are crucial.

That being said, my prediction regarding the price of BTC depends on what will happen. If there is continued bad news we might see a further crash but if things start getting better; euro transfers back, new bitcoin client with encryption, more services and products available for bitcoins (this is happening, more services come online every day and more stuff becomes available for coins), then we will see a gradual price increase, maybe a new speculation bubble if hype builds up.

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August 05, 2011, 06:43:38 AM
 #35

I'm a miner (not a minor) and I am not selling any of my BitCoins spoils.  In fact I am thinking about buying more, especially if they are sub $9.00.  Wink

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skyhigh
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August 05, 2011, 06:52:29 AM
 #36

You two missing the point that this 7200 coins per day is basically bitcoins inflation right now. Whole network will only have 7 million coins next week, and we are producing 7200 per day, every day. That my friends is the current inflation. Basic math tells you that 7200 / 7.000,000  gets you 0.1% inflation PER DAY. It doesn't really matter how many coins miners try to sell on regular basis. What matters is that bitcoins are diluting 0.1% per day or over 50% in the period of one single year.

All this early inflation is neatly hidden from regular people who don't think about every detail. Most of the them joined during or after we had a price boom from April $1 to June $30+ and are now thinking bitcoin has to be worth more somehow. Bitcoin isn't an investment like so many thought. Bitcoin functionality doesn't change if its worth $1 or $100. People greed wants it to be worth more in fiat cash. You can only hope Satoshi doesn't start selling his 1.500,000+ coin stash.  

7200 new coins per day is far from a minor thing. It's a huge thing, 50+% inflation in the last 365 days. There is no reason right now that with 50% inflation in the last year price would stay at the current levels.

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August 05, 2011, 10:20:58 AM
 #37

skyhigh, the reason I'm saying the issue is minor is that while there has been 50%+ inflation, we've had a 1000%+ inflation of new Bitcoin adopters. There is no reason to be so skeptical as to assume we won't have growth during the next 6 months for example. With the adoption growth we've had, the price is rightfully much higher than it was in the past. How high it's "supposed to be" no one knows, it's obvious it isn't $1 or $30 but something in between.

The price should be around $13-$14 right now to sustain the level of growth we've had so far but clearly we're in a slump with low adoption rates and a ton of bad news. So, basically the main factor to take into account regarding inflation is the adoption rate and the other factor is how much miners believe in Bitcoin or how much they can afford to save.

In the current situation I'd say the price is not going to go below $9, perhaps not even below $10. More bad news is required for another slump like that. The demand for cheap coins at the $9-$11 range is quite decent and many think that price is lowish for selling.

Where it will go from here depends on many things, as I already said in my last post. It might stay here for a while but I don't think so. With all the bad news people will show strong support for good news if they come and if good news come, there will at least be a small rally. With lots of good news we will see a very strong rally. But that's all speculation, we might see quiet stagnation and more occasional bad news and the price will not go up, might even go down.

It's also true that for the functionality of Bitcoin it doesn't matter what the price is, but I personally care about Bitcoin in many different ways, as a miner, as an investor, as a supporter and in the future probably as a merchant as well. For some of my interests the price does matter.

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August 05, 2011, 11:13:20 AM
 #38

You can only hope Satoshi doesn't start selling his 1.500,000+ coin stash.  
Satoshi's "stash" is getting bigger and bigger. Its inflation seems to be on par with the inflation of the user base. Wink
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August 05, 2011, 11:48:30 AM
 #39


7200 new coins per day is far from a minor thing. It's a huge thing, 50+% inflation in the last 365 days. There is no reason right now that with 50% inflation in the last year price would stay at the current levels.



Right, if you think that the amount of peoples money invested in bitcoins has grown by less than 50% during that last half a year, which would be amazingly stupid to assume Smiley

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August 05, 2011, 12:10:34 PM
 #40


I would've thrown $400 USD into BTCs back a few hours ago when it was only $8, but sadly it takes a day to get money into Mtgox from Dwolla's bank account. I rely on Paypal for instantaneous payments. Sad


Well, why not keep some USD on mtgox balance, just in case?

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